Silver Nuggets: Which is More Likely Series: Bryan Murray Edition
Hello! Yesterday we took a look in our WIML at two of the leagues brightest rising stars: Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin. The question was, would Tyler score 80 points or would Taylor score 35 goals? Many lurkers helped Taylor to a 60/40 victory, but many comments favoured Tyler. The best comment though, was on the winning side. It was a long one Jonathan, but man was it good:
Voted Taylor Hall
Among Boston forwards, Tyler Seguin was 5th for overall TOI/G, 3rd for ES TOI/G, and 4th for PP TOI/G. He was very nearly at the bottom for SH TOI/G, at 0:01 (yes, his time-on-ice per game shorthanded was one second/game).
Only one Boston centre had more TOI/G at even strength than Seguin, and that was David Krejci. Patrice Bergeron, like Krejci, had a higher overall TOI/G than Seguin, but played a lot more SH minutes (in fact Bergeron led the club in SH TOI/G among forwards, not counting some guy who played one game).
It’s a reach for Seguin to play a lot more ice time, unless its SH, minutes in which he’s not likely to score a lot of points. His points-per-game improved dramatically between his rookie and sophomore seasons, so it isn’t inconceivable that it could improve by quite a bit again (it would have to go from 0.827 PPG to 0.975 PPG, assuming he plays 82 games). But part of the reason his scoring increased was that his ice time improved (he went from 14th overall to 5th overall among forwards), and he got better linemates (although I don’t know who those were). It seems less likely that dramatic improvements in ice time or linemates are bound to happen.
Taylor Hall, meanwhile, mostly just needs to be healthy. If he can score goals at his current career shooting percentage (12.5%), he needs to take at least 280 shots to score 35 goals. 280 shots in 82 games is an average of 3.41 shots-per-game. Hall’s shots-per-game improved from 2.86 in 2010-11 to 3.39 in 2011-12. (If he can score goals with a shooting percentage equal to last season’s he’ll be doing even better, as it was 13.0%.) While the possibility he might be hurt again must be acknowledged – injuries are pretty common, after all – do we really want to raise the spectre of ‘injury-prone’?
The circumstances under which Taylor Hall is able to score 35 goals are more likely to obtain than those under which Tyler Seguin will be able to score 80 points; therefore, I vote Taylor Hall.
Today we look at the man behind the helm of the Ottawa Senators, Bryan Murray and ask a question about TSN's favourite day of the year: Trade Deadline Day. Without further ado:
Which is more likely? That Bryan Murray will be a buyer at the deadline OR will he be a seller?
Buyer: The Senators squeaked into the playoffs in the 8th position in the East last season, but showed they could have used another scoring forward when they came up against the New York Rangers in the first round. With teams that finished on the outside last season getting better (Hurricanes, Leafs (maybe?)) there may be the need for that extra little push. IF the price is right, Bryan is rarely shy.
Seller: This is going to be year 2 of a three year rebuild. Last season the Sens made the playoffs but some may say that was just gravy. With players like Sergei Gonchar being a pending UFA and Milan Michalek having a reasonable 1 year left on his deal, will the Sens continue to stockpile?
Will the Sens stand pat? Will they do a bit of both? Perhaps, but that is not the question. Between your options, which is more likely.
- Some goof at Sports Illustrated gave the Sens a D grade on their offseason and Nichols has some pointed thoughts for said individual. [6thSens]
- Scares me, but Ken Warren is doing Lockout Survival pieces. He suggests reading a book. Oh Boy. [SensExtra]
- Nichols with some thoughts on Corey Pronman's Sens prospect piece from yesterday. [6thSens]
- Colin Greening is today's player spotlight. [Sens]
- DGB looks at winners and losers from this summer. I love him. [DGB]
- For those of you looking for a #1 centre on your fantasy teams, NHL.com has decided Evgeni Malkin is your best choice. Somehow, even though he finished 4 in points last season, Jason Spezza is the 8th ranked centre. Whatever. [NHL]
- This article says Fehr and Bettman will take a direct approach in the next round of negotiations. WHAT HAVE THEY BEEN DOING SO FAR!? [CBC]
Which is more likely?
|Sens as buyers on deadline day||131|
|Sens as sellers on deadline day||157|