Game 5 preview: Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins

A preview of the game between the Ottawa Senators and Pittsburgh Penguins on 15 October 2015.

Coming off a 7-3 in Lumbus, the Ottawa Senators will look to improve to 4-1-0 when they visit the winless Pittsburgh Penguins. Ottawa has been outshot in every game and by an average of 11 shots per game on average but has managed to go 3-1-0. This has been in large part thanks to scoring on 13 of the 101 shots on goal with the goaltender on the ice.

Clarke MacArthur is out with the injury he suffered last night, so Shane Prince will step in for him. Craig Anderson will start on back-to-back nights.

Here is my complete guess at the lineup:

Hoffman - Turris - Stone
Ryan - Zibanejad - Lazar
Michalek - Pageau - Chiasson
Prince - Smith - Neil

Methot - Karlsson
Wiercioch - Ceci
Cowen - Borowiecki

Anderson (starter)

Some notes for tonight:

  • Ottawa has the worst 5-on-5 scoring chance differential in the NHL, by quite a margin. Ottawa was at -35 while Colorado is second worst at -25.
  • One model's estimate of the expected score last night based on the shot volume and location was a 4.5 to 2 Lumbus win.
  • Erik Karlsson finally had a dominant game, with a career high four assists and did not struggle defensively like he did in the three point game against Toronto. He is now tied for the NHL scoring lead with seven points.
  • Mark Borowiecki and Jared Cowen on the other hand were awful. When is Chris Wideman going to get a look?
  • Mike Hoffman finally scored everyone! He's had that coming. There can't be too many players in the NHL with a better release than him.
  • This will be the Senators last road game until 30 October. They only play four games (all at home) in the next 14 days after tonight.
  • Another three assists from Karlsson tonight will have him on pace to break Wayne Gretzky's single-season record of 163 assists. It's happening right?
  • This team has many issues, but the top line looks incredible at the moment. That along with Karlsson and at worst an average goaltender should take the Senators to the playoffs. Anything more depends on the rest of the defencemen and forwards.
  • If MacArthur is out for any length of time, that is really going to challenge Ottawa's already problematic lack of secondary scoring options. I don't really know what else can be done. The top line is too good to break up at the moment.
  • Sidney Crosby does not have a point yet this season./

Here are some stats for the two teams tonight. All stats are from except Corsi and Fenwick are from Note that Corsi is now adjusted for score as well as the venue.

Category Ottawa Pittsburgh
Player # Player #
Goals Kyle Turris 4 Phil Kessel 1
Assists Erik Karlsson 7 Phil Kessel 1
Points Erik Karlsson 7 Phil Kessel 2
Shots Mike Hoffman 12 Kris Letang 15
Average Ice time Erik Karlsson 25:40 Kris Letang 27:01

Category Ottawa Pittsburgh
# Rank # Rank
Goals For 3.75 4th 1.00 27th
Goals Against 2.75 17th 2.67 15th
Score and venue adjusted Corsi % 49.0% 16th 43.4% 27th
Score and venue adjusted Fenwick % 50.4% 15th 43.9% 24th
Shots For 25.8 24th 32.7 8th
Shots Against 35.8 29th 31.0 20th

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