DRAFT DAY: 2020 Expected Pick Range

Wondering what the public consensus says about the 2020 NHL draft? Look no further.

Happy draft day everyone! Come one, come all to find the consolidated rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft.

Back by popular demand after introducing the concept last year, below you’ll find a table of the top 94 prospects in the 2020 NHL draft, as decided by a group of 50 draft rankings made by public scouts, analysts and outlets.

Instead of providing just an average of where each player was ranked, players are ordered by averaging their corresponding draft value, a concept introduced by Michael Schuckers in 2011 where higher picks are worth (sort of) exponentially more than picks in the later rounds. This basically allows for a more level playing field — the value difference between the 3rd and 13th overall pick for example is much larger than the difference between 203rd and 213th.

After calculating each player’s average draft value, we can then find their expected range, which is what’s shown in the chart below. If a player was taken before the range? That’s a reach. Afterwards? Count that as a steal.

For example — Alexander Holtz’ expected range of 6-10 is pretty tight, meaning that the consensus is pretty close in agreement on where he should be drafted, compared to someone like Jake Sanderson with a wider expected range of 7-15. If the Senators choose Holtz or Sanderson at 5th, then the pick is considered a reach in the eyes of the public scouting sphere. But if Holtz falls to 11th overall where he’s snatched up by the Nashville Predators, then the pick is considered a steal.

For a more technical breakdown, we get the expected range by taking one standard deviation on each side of the prospect’s average draft value, then converting those numbers back to the closest corresponding draft pick. For further detail I’d recommend checking out the full explainer which you can find at this link.

Keep in mind that this is meant to show the public perception of prospects, and not a prediction of where players will be taken. However, a closer look last year showed that the 2019 consolidated rankings were closer than every single individual list at predicting the draft... except for Bob McKenzie. Which makes sense, McKenzie’s list is itself a poll of NHL scouts. But it’s just a cool secondary feature to possibly keep in mind.

Lastly, before I get to the list, you can find the full data on the Expected Range Spreadsheet — the list below only contains players ranked by 50% or more of the sources, whereas the sheet contains everyone. Find a full list of the included sources which includes some fun stats on each ranking, and the ‘What Is This’ page which contains links to the glossary and FAQ.

I’ll also be updating the spreadsheet live on draft day, filling out the Draft Board while keeping an eye on the Watch List for the top players available, and the Live Stats page for a to-the-minute look at which teams are coming out ahead, and which picks are the biggest steals/reaches. Join the spreadsheet party!

Now for the list (click on a player to visit their Elite Prospects page):

2020 NHL Draft: Expected Pick Range

1Alexis LafreniereLW18.93QMJHL1 - 150
2Quinton ByfieldC18.08OHL2 - 350
3Tim StutzleC/LW18.67DEL2 - 550
4Lucas RaymondRW/LW18.47SHL3 - 750
5Marco RossiC18.98OHL4 - 750
6Jamie DrysdaleRD18.44OHL5 - 850
7Cole PerfettiC18.7OHL5 - 950
8Alexander HoltzRW18.64SHL6 - 1050
9Anton LundellC18.95Liiga7 - 1450
10Jake SandersonLD18.19USDP7 - 1550
11Yaroslav AskarovG18.25VHL9 - 1447
12Seth JarvisRW18.62WHL10 - 1750
13Jack QuinnRW18.99OHL10 - 2050
14Rodion AmirovLW18.95KHL12 - 2049
15Dawson MercerRW18.89QMJHL13 - 1950
16Noel GunlerRW/LW18.94SHL12 - 2749
17Dylan HollowayLW18.98NCAA14 - 2249
18Connor ZaryC18.97WHL15 - 2350
19Mavrik BourqueC18.69QMJHL16 - 2849
20Jacob PerreaultC18.42OHL15 - 3050
21Jan MysakLW18.23Czech15 - 3250
22Kaiden GuhleLD18.66WHL17 - 3548
23Hendrix LapierreC18.6QMJHL18 - 3347
24Braden SchneiderRD18.99WHL17 - 3348
25Lukas ReichelLW18.33DEL18 - 3548
26Brendan BrissonC18.9USHL19 - 3646
27John-Jason PeterkaLW18.67DEL22 - 3245
28Helge GransRD18.35SuperElit20 - 4248
29Marat KhusnutdinovC18.17MHL19 - 5244
30Tyson FoersterC18.66OHL22 - 4046
31Emil AndraeLD18.56SuperElit22 - 4943
32William WallinderLD18.14SuperElit23 - 4445
33Zion NybeckLW/RW18.35SuperElit22 - 7642
34Thomas BordeleauC18.7USDP29 - 4544
35Roni HirvonenC18.68Liiga28 - 5346
36Jeremie PoirierLD18.29QMJHL27 - 7445
37Ryan O'RourkeLD18.34OHL30 - 5245
38Justin BarronRD18.83QMJHL29 - 7242
39Lukas CormierLD18.47QMJHL29 - 6942
40Ridly GreigLW18.11WHL27 - 8444
41Topi NiemelaRD18.48Liiga31 - 5443
42Ozzy WiesblattRW18.52WHL32 - 6845
43Jake NeighboursLW18.47WHL33 - 7240
44Martin ChromiakLW18.07Slovakia32 - 7841
45Kasper SimontaivalRW18.68U20 SM-sarja33 - 7642
46Vasily PonomaryovC18.51QMJHL34 - 7143
47Sam ColangeloRW18.72USHL34 - 7642
48Daniil GushchinRW18.61USHL35 - 7341
49Tristen RobinsC18.83WHL30 - 9340
50Alexander PashinLW18.14MHL31 - 9238
51Jean-Luc FoudyC18.34OHL36 - 7639
52Theodor NiederbachC18.55SuperElit34 - 8240
53Luke EvangelistaRW18.57OHL34 - 8439
54Joni JurmoLD18.41U20 SM-sarja36 - 8139
55Justin SourdifC18.48WHL36 - 8240
56Emil HeinemanLW18.83SuperElit34 - 8839
57Daniel TorgerssonLW/RW18.64SuperElit35 - 8540
58Roby JarventieLW18.11Mestis41 - 7941
59Ty SmilanicLW18.65USDP41 - 7942
60Tyler TullioC18.45OHL43 - 7840
61Veeti MiettinenRW18.99U20 SM-sarja36 - 8739
62Sean FarrellLW18.87USHL43 - 7738
63Carter SavoieLW18.64AJHL41 - 8531
64William VilleneuveRD18.49QMJHL36 - 9034
65Anton JohannessonLD18.48SuperElit40 - 8733
66Shakir MukhamadullinLD18.68KHL35 - 9428
67Brett BerardLW18.02USDP42 - 8840
68Joel BlomqvistG18.68U20 SM-sarja46 - 8333
69Jaromir PytlikC18.97OHL44 - 8935
70Eamon PowellRD18.35USDP47 - 8533
71Brock FaberRD18.07USDP36 - 9733
72Michael BenningRD18.69AJHL42 - 9234
73Eemil ViroLD18.45U20 SM-sarja45 - 8936
74Luke TuchLW18.53USDP46 - 8931
75Will CuylleLW18.61OHL46 - 9128
76Dylan PetersonC18.69USDP45 - 9136
77Yan KuznetsovLD18.49NCAA43 - 9434
78Tyler KlevenLD18.68USDP43 - 9627
79Daemon HuntLD18.34WHL53 - 9235
80Drew CommessoG18.16USDP53 - 9429
81Antonio StrangesC/LW18.61OHL53 - 9428
82Maxim GroshevRW/LW18.75KHL48 - 9827
83Evan VierlingC18.24OHL64 - 9532
84Yevgeni OksentyukRW/LW19.55OHL64 - 9629
85Connor McClennonRW18.23WHL55 - 9830
86Nico DawsG19.73OHL55 - 9830
87Jack FinleyC18.04WHL55 - 9931
88Wyatt KaiserLD18.13USHS-MN44 - 11125
89Brandon CoeRW18.79OHL56 - 10031
90Ryan FrancisRW18.79QMJHL69 - 9831
91Oskar MagnussonC/RW18.62SuperElit71 - 10027
92Theo RochetteC18.57QMJHL72 - 10628
93Cross HanasLW18.69WHL73 - 10627
94Donovan SebrangoLD18.67OHL77 - 10928

As a bonus, I’ve been tracking this stuff all year which has allowed me to make a visualization showing each player’s month-by-month progression! The first (default) tab shows each player’s average draft value, the second one shows expected range. Go wild, and click this link if the embed isn’t working for you.

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