DRAFT DAY: 2020 Expected Pick Range

Happy draft day everyone! Come one, come all to find the consolidated rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft.

Back by popular demand after introducing the concept last year, below you’ll find a table of the top 94 prospects in the 2020 NHL draft, as decided by a group of 50 draft rankings made by public scouts, analysts and outlets.

Instead of providing just an average of where each player was ranked, players are ordered by averaging their corresponding draft value, a concept introduced by Michael Schuckers in 2011 where higher picks are worth (sort of) exponentially more than picks in the later rounds. This basically allows for a more level playing field — the value difference between the 3rd and 13th overall pick for example is much larger than the difference between 203rd and 213th.

After calculating each player’s average draft value, we can then find their expected range, which is what’s shown in the chart below. If a player was taken before the range? That’s a reach. Afterwards? Count that as a steal.

For example — Alexander Holtz’ expected range of 6-10 is pretty tight, meaning that the consensus is pretty close in agreement on where he should be drafted, compared to someone like Jake Sanderson with a wider expected range of 7-15. If the Senators choose Holtz or Sanderson at 5th, then the pick is considered a reach in the eyes of the public scouting sphere. But if Holtz falls to 11th overall where he’s snatched up by the Nashville Predators, then the pick is considered a steal.

For a more technical breakdown, we get the expected range by taking one standard deviation on each side of the prospect’s average draft value, then converting those numbers back to the closest corresponding draft pick. For further detail I’d recommend checking out the full explainer which you can find at this link.

Keep in mind that this is meant to show the public perception of prospects, and not a prediction of where players will be taken. However, a closer look last year showed that the 2019 consolidated rankings were closer than every single individual list at predicting the draft... except for Bob McKenzie. Which makes sense, McKenzie’s list is itself a poll of NHL scouts. But it’s just a cool secondary feature to possibly keep in mind.

Lastly, before I get to the list, you can find the full data on the Expected Range Spreadsheet — the list below only contains players ranked by 50% or more of the sources, whereas the sheet contains everyone. Find a full list of the included sources which includes some fun stats on each ranking, and the ‘What Is This’ page which contains links to the glossary and FAQ.

I’ll also be updating the spreadsheet live on draft day, filling out the Draft Board while keeping an eye on the Watch List for the top players available, and the Live Stats page for a to-the-minute look at which teams are coming out ahead, and which picks are the biggest steals/reaches. Join the spreadsheet party!

Now for the list (click on a player to visit their Elite Prospects page):

2020 NHL Draft: Expected Pick Range

As a bonus, I’ve been tracking this stuff all year which has allowed me to make a visualization showing each player’s month-by-month progression! The first (default) tab shows each player’s average draft value, the second one shows expected range. Go wild, and click this link if the embed isn’t working for you.