DRAFT DAY: Expected Pick Range

A guide to figuring out the reaches and steals of the 2019 NHL Draft.

Happy draft day! Before it all begins this evening, I’d like to introduce “expected pick range”, something that I have been using throughout Silver Seven’s draft profiles series.

The goal is to identify pre-draft where we should roughly expect a player to be taken. So as the draft is happening we can have a rough idea of whether the pick was a reach, steal, or right in a comfortable range.

The basis I’m using for this is a list of consolidated rankings gathered from 60 different scouting sources. Afterwards, each placement is converted into draft values based on the research by Michael Schuckers. The average gives us one specific value, although a standard deviation on either end gives us a range of draft values. Once converted back into picks, then we’re left with a player’s “expected pick range”.

Below is a table of every player ranked by at least ten of the 60 sources, along with their expected pick range. If they’re taken before the “Lower” value, it means the pick was probably a reach (for example, if Ottawa takes Connor McMichael at pick #19). Picking a player after the “Upper” value would be considered a steal, so if Alex Newhook dropped to pick #19, it would be an incredible value pick. “Count” is just an indicator of how many sources ranked each prospect.

It’s not perfect, but I will certainly be referring back to it constantly. Here’s the link to the original spreadsheet, which also includes the list of sources as well as an additional 260 prospects that received less attention from the consolidated rankings.

2019 NHL Draft - Expected Pick Range

1Jack HughesC1160
2Kaapo KakkoRW2260
3Bowen ByramLD3560
4Alex TurcotteC3659
5Trevor ZegrasC/W41060
6Dylan CozensC/RW51060
7Kirby DachC61060
8Cole CaufieldC/RW61259
9Peyton KrebsLW/C71260
10Vasili PodkolzinRW61460
11Matthew BoldyLW81359
12Alex NewhookC81660
13Arthur KaliyevLW112360
14Victor SoderstromRD122160
15Philip BrobergLD112660
16Cam YorkLD132159
17Moritz SeiderRD132760
18Philip TomasinoC142859
19Thomas HarleyLD152860
20Ville HeinolaLD162759
21Bobby BrinkRW152957
22Ryan SuzukiC162759
23Raphael LavoieC/RW173158
24Pavel DorofeyevLW/RW163655
25Spencer KnightG173445
26Jakob PelletierLW183459
27Nils HoglanderLW203256
28Nicholas RobertsonC/LW213757
29Connor McMichaelC223558
30Samuel PoulinLW224159
31Tobias BjornfotLD244054
32Matthew RobertsonLD224452
33Patrik PuistolaLW275050
34Egor AfanasyevLW294852
35Brett LeasonRW305349
36Albin GreweC/RW306449
37Lassi ThomsonRD314853
38Anttoni HonkaRD297752
39Nathan LegareRW297647
40Simon HolmstromRW307849
41Ryan JohnsonLD317250
42Robert MastrosimoneC/LW327048
43John BeecherC317150
44Jamieson ReesC325651
45Brayden TraceyLW326950
46Vladislav KolyachonokLD317350
47Samuel FagemoLW/RW317645
48Mikko KokkonenLD298646
49Ilya NikolayevC/RW327443
50Alex VlasicLD327642
51Nolan FooteLW357548
52Kaedan KorczakRD357844
53Maxim CajkovicRW/LW388043
54Yegor SpiridonovC/LW407938
55Marshall WarrenLD378538
56Albert JohanssonLD368730
57Jordan SpenceRD349340
58Domenick FensoreLD388737
59Michal TeplyRW/LW428537
60Shane PintoRW438539
61Pyotr KochetkovG458220
62Artemi KnyazevLD438740
63Vladislav FirstovLW478234
64Henry ThrunLD448639
65Karl HenrikssonC448739
66Alex BeaucageRW/LW369341
67Adam BeckmanC428932
68Daniil MisyulLD448831
69Nikita AlexandrovC449033
70Ethan KeppenLW429225
71Jackson LaCombeLD429230
72John FarinacciC528630
73Zachary JonesLD439226
74Mads SogaardG538725
75Drew HellesonRD439234
76Antti TuomistoRD488932
77Matias MaccelliLW459127
78Dustin WolfG399717
79Tuukka TieksolaRW459129
80Billy ConstantinouRD469127
81Dmitri SheshinLW439714
82Semyon ChistyakovLD439623
83Daniil GutikLW529127
84Antti SaarelaLW/RW539329
85Leevi AaltonenLW509427
86Mattias NorlinderLD559321
87Dillon HamaliukLW489629
88Jayden StrubleLD4710024
89Ronnie AttardRD4610321
90Matvei GuskovC559923
91Kirill SlepetsRW5310117
92Graeme ClarkeRW709627
93Valentin NussbaumerC/W5310315
94Henri NikkanenC5610022
95Samuel BolducLD579929
96Marcus KallionkieliLW709920
97Patrick MoynihanC6410119
98Michael VukojevicLD719822
99Hunter JonesG5510715
100Egor SerdyukRW5610720
101Blake MurrayC6410721
102Sasha MutalaRW7110321
103Justin BergeronLD7310314
104Ben BrinkmanLD4814520
105Alex CampbellC6911425
106Hugo AlnefeltG7410615
107Layton AhacLD5513723
108Nikola PasicC/LW7310718
109Ryder DonovanC7111120
110Nikita OkhotyukLD7310918
111Mike KosterLD7111316
112Aaron HuglenRW7311013
113Mikhail AbramovRW/C7311123
114Oleg ZaitsevC5913714
115Reece NewkirkC5714519
116Harrison BlaisdellC7211819
117Alexei ProtasC7311420
118Ethan PhillipsRW7511015
119Arseni GritsyukLW7211815
120Simon LundmarkRD7610916
121Gianni FairbrotherLD7214114
122Rhett PitlickLW7115418
123Xavier SimoneauC7115118
124Henry RybinskiLW5517811
125Jake LeeLD7215416
126Martin Hugo HasRD7513122
127Cole MobergRD/RW7612717
128Michael GildonLW7712717
129Isaiah SavilleG8011814
130Case McCarthyRD8111417
131Judd CaulfieldRW8013715
132Trevor JanickeRW8312311
133Keean WashkurakC7617112
134Cole MackayRW7916415
135Kim NousiainenLD8016111
136Colten EllisG8116413
137Yaroslav LikhachyovRW8216410
138Massimo RizzoC/LW7719315
139Trent MinerG8715414
140Vojtech StrondalaC8616912
141Kristian TanusC/W8716910
142Lucas FeukC/W8418412
143Roman BychkovLD8617613
144Owen LindmarkRW8717811
145Ilya MironovLD8519014
146Luke ToporowskiLW9214815
147Kalle LoponenRD8817813
148Albin SundsvikC8918012
149Josh NodlerRW9117414
150Cole SchwindtRW9218610
151Nicholas PorcoLW9219712
152Iivari RasanenLD9519711
153Aku RatyRW10617311
154Grant SilianoffLW9919911
155Anthony RomanoRW12518410

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