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DRAFT DAY: 2020 Expected Pick Range

Wondering what the public consensus says about the 2020 NHL draft? Look no further.

By Colin Cudmore
2019 NHL Draft - Rounds 2-7

Happy draft day everyone! Come one, come all to find the consolidated rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft.

Back by popular demand after introducing the concept last year, below you’ll find a table of the top 94 prospects in the 2020 NHL draft, as decided by a group of 50 draft rankings made by public scouts, analysts and outlets.

Instead of providing just an average of where each player was ranked, players are ordered by averaging their corresponding draft value, a concept introduced by Michael Schuckers in 2011 where higher picks are worth (sort of) exponentially more than picks in the later rounds. This basically allows for a more level playing field — the value difference between the 3rd and 13th overall pick for example is much larger than the difference between 203rd and 213th.

After calculating each player’s average draft value, we can then find their expected range, which is what’s shown in the chart below. If a player was taken before the range? That’s a reach. Afterwards? Count that as a steal.

For example — Alexander Holtz’ expected range of 6-10 is pretty tight, meaning that the consensus is pretty close in agreement on where he should be drafted, compared to someone like Jake Sanderson with a wider expected range of 7-15. If the Senators choose Holtz or Sanderson at 5th, then the pick is considered a reach in the eyes of the public scouting sphere. But if Holtz falls to 11th overall where he’s snatched up by the Nashville Predators, then the pick is considered a steal.

For a more technical breakdown, we get the expected range by taking one standard deviation on each side of the prospect’s average draft value, then converting those numbers back to the closest corresponding draft pick. For further detail I’d recommend checking out the full explainer which you can find at this link.

Keep in mind that this is meant to show the public perception of prospects, and not a prediction of where players will be taken. However, a closer look last year showed that the 2019 consolidated rankings were closer than every single individual list at predicting the draft... except for Bob McKenzie. Which makes sense, McKenzie’s list is itself a poll of NHL scouts. But it’s just a cool secondary feature to possibly keep in mind.

Lastly, before I get to the list, you can find the full data on the Expected Range Spreadsheet — the list below only contains players ranked by 50% or more of the sources, whereas the sheet contains everyone. Find a full list of the included sources which includes some fun stats on each ranking, and the ‘What Is This’ page which contains links to the glossary and FAQ.

I’ll also be updating the spreadsheet live on draft day, filling out the Draft Board while keeping an eye on the Watch List for the top players available, and the Live Stats page for a to-the-minute look at which teams are coming out ahead, and which picks are the biggest steals/reaches. Join the spreadsheet party!

Now for the list (click on a player to visit their Elite Prospects page):

2020 NHL Draft: Expected Pick Range

# Player Pos Age League xRange Sources
# Player Pos Age League xRange Sources
1 Alexis Lafreniere LW 18.93 QMJHL 1 - 1 50
2 Quinton Byfield C 18.08 OHL 2 - 3 50
3 Tim Stutzle C/LW 18.67 DEL 2 - 5 50
4 Lucas Raymond RW/LW 18.47 SHL 3 - 7 50
5 Marco Rossi C 18.98 OHL 4 - 7 50
6 Jamie Drysdale RD 18.44 OHL 5 - 8 50
7 Cole Perfetti C 18.7 OHL 5 - 9 50
8 Alexander Holtz RW 18.64 SHL 6 - 10 50
9 Anton Lundell C 18.95 Liiga 7 - 14 50
10 Jake Sanderson LD 18.19 USDP 7 - 15 50
11 Yaroslav Askarov G 18.25 VHL 9 - 14 47
12 Seth Jarvis RW 18.62 WHL 10 - 17 50
13 Jack Quinn RW 18.99 OHL 10 - 20 50
14 Rodion Amirov LW 18.95 KHL 12 - 20 49
15 Dawson Mercer RW 18.89 QMJHL 13 - 19 50
16 Noel Gunler RW/LW 18.94 SHL 12 - 27 49
17 Dylan Holloway LW 18.98 NCAA 14 - 22 49
18 Connor Zary C 18.97 WHL 15 - 23 50
19 Mavrik Bourque C 18.69 QMJHL 16 - 28 49
20 Jacob Perreault C 18.42 OHL 15 - 30 50
21 Jan Mysak LW 18.23 Czech 15 - 32 50
22 Kaiden Guhle LD 18.66 WHL 17 - 35 48
23 Hendrix Lapierre C 18.6 QMJHL 18 - 33 47
24 Braden Schneider RD 18.99 WHL 17 - 33 48
25 Lukas Reichel LW 18.33 DEL 18 - 35 48
26 Brendan Brisson C 18.9 USHL 19 - 36 46
27 John-Jason Peterka LW 18.67 DEL 22 - 32 45
28 Helge Grans RD 18.35 SuperElit 20 - 42 48
29 Marat Khusnutdinov C 18.17 MHL 19 - 52 44
30 Tyson Foerster C 18.66 OHL 22 - 40 46
31 Emil Andrae LD 18.56 SuperElit 22 - 49 43
32 William Wallinder LD 18.14 SuperElit 23 - 44 45
33 Zion Nybeck LW/RW 18.35 SuperElit 22 - 76 42
34 Thomas Bordeleau C 18.7 USDP 29 - 45 44
35 Roni Hirvonen C 18.68 Liiga 28 - 53 46
36 Jeremie Poirier LD 18.29 QMJHL 27 - 74 45
37 Ryan O'Rourke LD 18.34 OHL 30 - 52 45
38 Justin Barron RD 18.83 QMJHL 29 - 72 42
39 Lukas Cormier LD 18.47 QMJHL 29 - 69 42
40 Ridly Greig LW 18.11 WHL 27 - 84 44
41 Topi Niemela RD 18.48 Liiga 31 - 54 43
42 Ozzy Wiesblatt RW 18.52 WHL 32 - 68 45
43 Jake Neighbours LW 18.47 WHL 33 - 72 40
44 Martin Chromiak LW 18.07 Slovakia 32 - 78 41
45 Kasper Simontaival RW 18.68 U20 SM-sarja 33 - 76 42
46 Vasily Ponomaryov C 18.51 QMJHL 34 - 71 43
47 Sam Colangelo RW 18.72 USHL 34 - 76 42
48 Daniil Gushchin RW 18.61 USHL 35 - 73 41
49 Tristen Robins C 18.83 WHL 30 - 93 40
50 Alexander Pashin LW 18.14 MHL 31 - 92 38
51 Jean-Luc Foudy C 18.34 OHL 36 - 76 39
52 Theodor Niederbach C 18.55 SuperElit 34 - 82 40
53 Luke Evangelista RW 18.57 OHL 34 - 84 39
54 Joni Jurmo LD 18.41 U20 SM-sarja 36 - 81 39
55 Justin Sourdif C 18.48 WHL 36 - 82 40
56 Emil Heineman LW 18.83 SuperElit 34 - 88 39
57 Daniel Torgersson LW/RW 18.64 SuperElit 35 - 85 40
58 Roby Jarventie LW 18.11 Mestis 41 - 79 41
59 Ty Smilanic LW 18.65 USDP 41 - 79 42
60 Tyler Tullio C 18.45 OHL 43 - 78 40
61 Veeti Miettinen RW 18.99 U20 SM-sarja 36 - 87 39
62 Sean Farrell LW 18.87 USHL 43 - 77 38
63 Carter Savoie LW 18.64 AJHL 41 - 85 31
64 William Villeneuve RD 18.49 QMJHL 36 - 90 34
65 Anton Johannesson LD 18.48 SuperElit 40 - 87 33
66 Shakir Mukhamadullin LD 18.68 KHL 35 - 94 28
67 Brett Berard LW 18.02 USDP 42 - 88 40
68 Joel Blomqvist G 18.68 U20 SM-sarja 46 - 83 33
69 Jaromir Pytlik C 18.97 OHL 44 - 89 35
70 Eamon Powell RD 18.35 USDP 47 - 85 33
71 Brock Faber RD 18.07 USDP 36 - 97 33
72 Michael Benning RD 18.69 AJHL 42 - 92 34
73 Eemil Viro LD 18.45 U20 SM-sarja 45 - 89 36
74 Luke Tuch LW 18.53 USDP 46 - 89 31
75 Will Cuylle LW 18.61 OHL 46 - 91 28
76 Dylan Peterson C 18.69 USDP 45 - 91 36
77 Yan Kuznetsov LD 18.49 NCAA 43 - 94 34
78 Tyler Kleven LD 18.68 USDP 43 - 96 27
79 Daemon Hunt LD 18.34 WHL 53 - 92 35
80 Drew Commesso G 18.16 USDP 53 - 94 29
81 Antonio Stranges C/LW 18.61 OHL 53 - 94 28
82 Maxim Groshev RW/LW 18.75 KHL 48 - 98 27
83 Evan Vierling C 18.24 OHL 64 - 95 32
84 Yevgeni Oksentyuk RW/LW 19.55 OHL 64 - 96 29
85 Connor McClennon RW 18.23 WHL 55 - 98 30
86 Nico Daws G 19.73 OHL 55 - 98 30
87 Jack Finley C 18.04 WHL 55 - 99 31
88 Wyatt Kaiser LD 18.13 USHS-MN 44 - 111 25
89 Brandon Coe RW 18.79 OHL 56 - 100 31
90 Ryan Francis RW 18.79 QMJHL 69 - 98 31
91 Oskar Magnusson C/RW 18.62 SuperElit 71 - 100 27
92 Theo Rochette C 18.57 QMJHL 72 - 106 28
93 Cross Hanas LW 18.69 WHL 73 - 106 27
94 Donovan Sebrango LD 18.67 OHL 77 - 109 28

As a bonus, I’ve been tracking this stuff all year which has allowed me to make a visualization showing each player’s month-by-month progression! The first (default) tab shows each player’s average draft value, the second one shows expected range. Go wild, and click this link if the embed isn’t working for you.