Weekly Question: Which Is More Likely?

Bringing back a S7S classic for a new era

WIML stands for Which Is More Likely, a phenomenon that Dave Young introduced to Silver Seven Sens several captains ago. It hasn’t been featured on this site for 3,067 days to be exact. For comparison, it last ran more than a year before I became a staff writer on this site.

The concept is really simple. You get two options, and then you answer which is more likely. Sometimes they’re mutually exclusive. Sometimes both or neither could happen. All you have to pick is, which is more likely?

Tkachuk vs. Stützle goals

Brady Tkachuk finished last year with 17 goals, and Stützle scored 12 of his own. Tkachuk will likely never be a 50-goal scorer, but considering his obscene expected-goals-for percentage, it’s not unreasonable to say he could score 30. Meanwhile, Stützle has started this year as a young man on fire, and it’s only a matter of time until the points start coming. Jimmy Stü likely won’t hit 30 this season, but could he reach 25?

Which is more likely?

Tkachuk scores 30 goals in 2021-2247
Stützle scores 25 goals in 2021-22221

Defensive Ice Time

It’s no secret that Thomas Chabot is this team’s best defenceman. Sometimes it looks like DJ Smith would rather triple-shift his workhorse than play some of this third-pairing options. On the flip side, there’s no question that he doesn’t trust smaller, more offensively-minded defencemen. So my question is, is it more likely that we see Chabot top 35 minutes in a game this season, or that one of Victor Mete or Erik Brännström tops 25 minutes in a game?

Which is more likely?

Chabot tops 35 minutes in a game148
Mete or Brännström surpass 25 minutes in a game103

Special Teams

It’s no exaggeration to say the Ottawa Senators special teams have been abysmal in recent history. Last year, it almost felt like a success that they finished 26th (15.5%) in the league on the powerplay and 20th (79.0%) on the penalty kill. After all, the year previous, the Sens were last on the PP and 28th on the PK. So far this year, in a tiny sample size, the Sens are 9th on the PP (33.3%) and 17th on the PK (76.9%), which is quite the improvement. So, in which category are they more likely to finish top-10 in the league this year?

Which Is More Likely?

Sens finish top-10 in the league in powerplay percentage89
Sens finish top-10 in the league in penalty kill percentage164

The beauty of this format is it’s super easy to do. Suggest your own in the comments if you think of any!

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