Silver Nuggets: Senators still in the hunt but face difficult January

After the Ottawa Senators host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, they will played 10 of the next 12 games on the road. The road games will include stops against eastern conference powerhouses Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, the New York Rangers and Boston as well as a four game road trip on the US west coast in San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The other two road games will be in Toronto and Montréal while the two home games will be against Philadelphia and Winnipeg. The Senators will likely be underdogs in all games except the home game against Winnipeg and the game in Anaheim.

Currently Ottawa is sixth in the eastern conference, but ninth in terms of points per game. One would think the Capitals are eventually going to take the division lead, so the final three spots will come down to a fight between Ottawa, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Florida, Toronto, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. I am writing off the Habs, Islanders and Hurricanes, go ahead and write it!

If the Senators are still in a playoff spot at the end of January, I like their chances of making the playoffs. From February onwards, 17 of their last 29 games are at home and 11 of the 12 road games are in the eastern time zone. gives the Senators a 55% probability of making the playoffs and places it at 41.1%.

But how will the Senators fare in the upcoming run of 10 road games out of 13 for the rest of the month? After careful examination, I have determined that the Sens will pick up 13 points in the remaining 13 games in January.

General Sens News

  • Game recap from last night. (Silver Seven, Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
  • Jason Spezza is second in the NHL with five shootout goals and he is often doing it by shooting five-hole. He did the same thing last night when Erik Karlsson sent him in on a breakaway. (Ottawa Sun)
  • Ottawa politicians are holding a rally to get the locals to vote for the Senators players in the all-star game. (Ottawa Sun)
  • Daniel Alfredsson is healthy and enjoying a strong season with 28 points in 34 games, good for third on the team. Alfie does say that he is more tired physically than he used to be, but that has to be expected given his age. If the Senators can give him one more playoff series, would Alfie hang them up after? He's due to be paid only $1 million next season. (Senators Extra)
  • This is a bit old but I just read this. Erik Karlsson discusses his haircut, his Christmas gifts for Therese, New Year's resolutions and his planned honeymoon. He's also getting married at the same place in Sweden as Alfie, aww! He also doesn't care much for a caesar. (Ottawa Sun)
  • Robin Lehner says his altercation with the referee "wasn't the best choice of my life" but that he didn't intend to do anything to the referee and wanted to get through to the goaltender. That's kind of an apology...right? No? (Robin Lehner)
  • A look at the Senators at (almost) the midway point of the season. No one expected the Senators to be in the hunt did they? Well...except me. ;) (Welcome to your Karlsson Years)

How many points will the Senators pick up in the remaining 13 games in January?

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> 1826

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