Silver Nuggets: Senators draft probabilities; Karlsson / Havlat comparison

Well Sens fans, this is it. It is the last week of the season. This week the Senators host the Flyers and the Canadiens before finishing out their season in Boston on Saturday afternoon. After that, we'll have six months of anxious waiting before the Senators play a competitive game again

According to Sports Club Stats the Senators have a 42% chance at finishing last in the East (3rd last overall), 39% chance at finishing 14th in the East (4th last overall) and 19% chance at finishing 13th in the East (5th last overall). The Senators will need to lose all three games to have a better than 50% probability of finishing last in the East. In any case, the Senators have clinched the 5th worst record in the NHL and thus the 6th pick in the worst case scenario of one of the teams 6th to 9th winning the lottery.

I have calculated the Senators draft probability below. For this purpose, I am discounting Colorado finishing above Ottawa as they are 4 points back with Ottawa holding the tiebreaker.

Draft position probability
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
If 3rd last
6% 0% 24% 12% 0% 0%
If 4th last
4% 0% 0% 26% 9% 0%
If 5th last
2% 0% 0% 0% 14% 3%
12% 0% 24% 38% 23% 3%

So we still have a 36% chance of picking in the top 3 and 97% chance of picking in the top 5! Here are today's links:

General Sens News

  • Martin Havlat is the reason I am an Ottawa Senators fan, he was my favourite player. Jason York rates him as the most exciting player to ever play for the Senators and I agree. His stick-handling and speed were breathtaking. Erik Karlsson reminds York of Martin Havlat in that respect. He also rates Karlsson higher than Duncan Keith in terms of pure skill. Very interesting read. (Sun)

More after the jump.

  • The Ottawa Senators have 181 goals this season (the article incorrectly states 183 and counts shootout goals). The franchise low is 191. The Senators need 11 goals in 3 games to beat that. (Sun)
  • UPDATE: Daniel Alfredsson officially will not play again this season. (Sun)
  • Marek Svatos is also likely done for the season. (Scott MacArthur)
  • Zack Smith regrets his hit on Matt Lashoff as he awaits news on whether he will be suspended. (Citizen)
  • Jason Spezza is happy for his good friend Ray Emery. (Citizen)

General Hockey News

  • The unrestricted free agent market may be thin this year, but there are some big name restricted free agents including Steven Stamkos, Zach Parise and Shea Weber. Will any of them make it to July 1 and if so, would they receive an offer sheet? Stamkos' likely salary will require FOUR first round picks in an offer sheet. (Sun)
  • According to Russian legend Vladislav Tretiak, Evgeni Nabokov will play for the New York Islanders next season. (Dmitry Chesnokov)

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