Silver Nuggets: Expectations for Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson was having quite the season before his injury in February.

At the time of his injury, Erik Karlsson had 10 points in 13 games and was leading the entire NHL (including forwards) in shots on goal. While he wasn't quite himself after his return, he still managed to get 12 points in 13 games in the post-injury period, including 44 shots. Including regular season and the playoffs, Karlsson had 22 points and 107 shots in 27 games. The number of shots he had pre-injury was 63 in 14 games (4.5 per game) and he had 44 in 13 games (3.4 per game) after the injury.

While both samples are obviously really small, can we expect Karlsson to return to that sort of dominating form? Aside from Alexander Ovechkin who has done it 7 times, only Simon Gagne, Evgeni Malkin, Eric Staal and Henrik Zetterberg have recorded 4.5 shots per game in a season since 2005-2006. A defenceman hasn't done it since Ray Bourque in 1995-1996.

Karlsson's point total in 2011-2012 and his shots early in the 2013 season were very rare feats. Having said that, Karlsson is also a very rare player. I think he is also the best defenceman on the club for preventing goals, but for the purposes of this poll, let's assume Karlsson plays as well defensively as you expect him to play. Then how many points do you expect him to get?

The question isn't how many points would be satisfactory but specifically how many you expect. I think if Karlsson has 55 points while playing on the first pairing, that's an excellent season for him but below what I think he will get.

Sens links

  • The Senators re-signed Patrick Wiercioch to a three year contract worth $2M per season. I think that he is already going to be worth $2M player in 2013-2014 and well above that going forward. I still a bit surprised he got that much though. (Ottawa Senators, Silver Seven)
  • The NHL schedule was released on Friday. The Senators will start the season on a six-game road trip before opening against the Devils on 17 October. Daniel Alfredsson will return to Ottawa for the first time on 1 December. (Ottawa Senators)
  • Jared Crozier looks at Colin Greening's value to the Senators. (SenShot)
  • Senators president Cyril Leeder spoke on The 1200 about Alfie, Bobby Ryan and the casino. Nichols has the full transcript as well as his comments. (The 6th Sens)
  • Yost points out the following quote from Leeder: "Since Eugene (Melnyk) has bought the team, we’ve been in a really good spot financially and we will continue to be." This contradicts Melnyk's comments just recently about the team losing significant money. As Yost points out, this isn't the only team the club's owner and president were contradicting each other. (Travis Yost)
General Hockey Links
  • The NHL will be heading to the Olympics and I couldn't be happier. In terms of the quality of hockey and excitement, nothing beats the Olympics with NHL players. (NHL)
  • Jaromir Jagr signed a one-year contract with the Devils. If I recall correctly, Bryan Murray had earlier expressed an interest but hinted that he might prefer to trade for him at the deadline instead. (NHL)
  • Sam Gagner re-signed with the Oilers for three-years at $4.8M per season. (NHL)
As an aside, I will soon be organising a keeper fantasy league with a $50 buy-in. Lots of people on twitter showed in initial interest, you should too. Yes, this is a shameless self plug to check for interest here.

How many points do you expect from Erik Karlsson this season assuming 82 games?

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