Silver Nuggets: Do the Senators have the prospects to give up in a trade for a star?

So, have you heard? Matt Duchene may or may not be available!

*crowd looks confused*

Well, that's basically what the Senators fanbase has been like for the last 24 hours after hearing their names linked to the Avs star forward. I personally don't think that there's much to these rumours, but what is interesting to me is the myriad of trade proposals that have been floating around -- many of which includes a pile of hot garbage for Matt Duchene. IF this deal did go down, who exactly do the Senators have to give up?

Most of the team's NHL ready talent are in the NHL right now. The U24 crowd includes 2010 draft pick Mark Stone, the 2011 quartet of Mika Zibanejad, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, and the 20-yo Curtis Lazar (2013). That's a pretty decent group of players, and you'd think that the Avs would ask for one or two of them as the centrepieces for a potential deal. A centre, like QMJHL-based Jean-Gabriel Pageau (which I bring up because Roy would be very familiar with him) or Curtis Lazar, may be a lock to include to replace Duchene in the Avs lineup. However, he has been playing wing lately, so Puempel and Prince could easily be included as well.

When you start to look at the potential AHL inclusions in the deal, you quickly see how wide the gap is between the Senators NHL and AHL teams. It's not 2005 - 2009 kind-of-bad but it's pretty darn close. In terms of meaningful players, I doubt the Avs would want Matt O'Connor, given that they have three NHL-ish goaltenders already. In terms of non-goaltender U24 talent, there's Buddy Robinson (who's a healthy scratch), Alex Guptill (who's in the ECHL), Travis Ewanyk (4th line minutes), Troy Rutkowski (ECHL), Vincent Dunn (ECHL), Ryan Dzingel, Max McCormick, Fredrik Claesson, Ben Harpur, Nick Paul, and Tobias Lindberg. So really, there's only 6 players with NHL potential and none of them are sure things, with the exception of Nick Paul. Yikes.

What about the Sens drafted prospects who are currently in junior?

  • I've already mentioned everyone from the 2011 draft, which was excellent for Bryan Murray and his group.
  • From 2012 (Cody Ceci), there's Robbie Baillargeon, who was behind Jack Eichel in BU last year and has struggled to regain his form after being ill with mononucleosis, and Mikael Wikstrand.
  • Of the 2013 picks, Lazar, Lindberg, Harpur, and Dunn are all in pro hockey. There's also Chris Leblanc and Quentin Shore, but neither seem like sure bets to even get ELCs from the Sens at this point
  • 2014/2015 is where we start to get messy. The Avs could easily demand one of the Sens top picks like Andreas Englund, Thomas Chabot, or Colin White. They could also go for Gabriel Gagne, who Roy may know, or current QMJHL leading scorer Francis Perron. However, all of these prospects are at least 2-4 years down the road from making an NHL impact.

The days of the Sens prospect base being the envy of the league are far away. The organization doesn't have a *poor* group of players, but those who are likely going to make an impact in the NHL over the next two years are already with the big club.


Sens Links

  • Two Sens games this week, and wow were they different. One a high-scoring affair that resulted in a loss to the Nashville Predators on Tuesday night. [Silver Seven, SensChirp, Ottawa Citizen]
  • The second was a quieter affair, especially in terms of scoring chances, and resulted in a win last night vs. the Vancouver Canucks. [Silver Seven, SensChirp, Ottawa Citizen]
  • A BSens game recap from Jeff from the team's loss vs. the Adirondack Phantoms (PHI) [Silver Seven]
  • Jeff's wonderful BSens coverage continues, with this week's Bingo Bites having a bunch of thoughts on the team's weekend games. [Silver Seven]
  • Peter also has a bunch of thoughts on the BSens and highlights something key: both iterations of the Senators
  • With more on the Matt Duchene news, here's Nichols looking at it from a Sens-specific angle. [6th Sens]
  • Matt Duchene isn't a defenseman, however, and the Sens definitely need help as they're currently bleeding shots against. [SensChirp]
  • The funniest piece of the week comes courtesy of Chet + Luke, who look back at Erik Karlsson's draft day. [WTYKY]
  • Trevor has a great piece on the Senators penalty problems. The Senators PK has been *okay* this year and have a league-leading 4 shorthanded goals, but that's also because they've been on the kill a lot.. [Silver Seven]
  • It seems as though he's always going to be a story, unless he's injured or traded. Here's Luke on the enigma that is Jared Cowen. [WTYKY]
  • Yost was focused on the Sens this week, and wrote an article on the team's odd start to the season. [TSN]
  • Ross helps us understand betting odds. A really good read given the emergence of betting companies and their impact on pro sports. [Silver Seven]

Other Links

  • The biggest conversation generator this week was centered around NHL goaltending. Former 'tender Corey Hirsch wrote about ways to get the size of goalie equipment right. [Sportsnet]
  • Yost also wrote about goalies, this time talking about how European goalies have emerged as a dominant force in the NHL. [TSN]
  • The Washington Capitals look like a scary good team, led by Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. [NHLNumbers]
  • A really cool analysis piece that tries to capture the complexity that is tracking a goaltender's rebound control. [Hockey-Graphs]
  • Here's a piece on how defenders rank in terms of preventing quality shots against. Karlsson does NOT make the cut, but Drew Doughty + John Klingberg have been poor at this during 2015-16. [TSN]
  • A wonderful Players Tribune piece on Jose Bautista's now-infamous bat flip. So good and so relevant to many sports. [The Players Tribune]
  • The Olympics are coming up! Here's your update with a focus on Team Canada. [CBC]


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