Sens-Leafs, Game 3 Roundtable Preview

There is a saying in pro sports that you're not out of a series until you lose a game at home. The Ottawa Senators are about to put that truism to the test tonight, because they need to win to avoid going down 3-0 to the hated Toronto Maple Leafs. Game 2 was an improvement on Game 1, the Sens were a bounce away in overtime from coming back to Ottawa with the series tied at one, but the fact is that the Leafs lead two games to none.

We gather the staff once more to try to make sense of what we've seen so far, and what to expect in Game 3:

Yesterday Trevor had a piece about looking for silver linings despite the Sens being down 2-0 in the series. What are you clinging to? Are you able to stay positive?

Beata: The most promising thing, to me, is the stat about both these teams having some of the best records in the league at home. The Sens played well after the first period in Game 2, and we've seen this team play very well at home this season. They can bounce back.

Ross: Somewhat? The Sens did look really good in the second period of game two. They benefited from some luck in the first period (Marner's post hit, anyone?), but also were the better team for 80% of the game. I'm feeling hopeful but it's also fragile, and my hope could easily collapse if the Leafs score in the first 3 minutes. Again.

Nada: I am probably not the best person to answer that because in my mind the Sens were for sure going to get the split and I see this team as a bit too fragile to climb out of a 2-0 hole. That being said, as Game 3 gets closer, I'll probably get some excitement back. My hope is that Ullmark plays as well as he did in the second half of that game and that Stutzle's magic ends up delivering a few more goals.

Owen: Playoff hockey in Ottawa for the first time in eight years.

BT: The Sens really did control the pace of play for most of game 2, the power play looked genuinely dangerous, and they mostly stayed out of the box. I have hope.

nkb: Like others have mentioned, the Sens were genuinely quite good after the ten minute mark of the first, so I'm clinging to that. I'm going to be driving down from Toronto to attend Game 4 in person, so my optimism is also a matter of self-preservation as I'm not sure I can bear watching a possible Leafs sweep.

The Sens once again looked terrible for the first ten minutes and then were the better team for the rest of the game. They almost  pulled it out in Game 2, but it wasn’t quite enough. Is there anything you’d like to see them try to get off to a better start in Game 3?

Beata: It's the most obvious thing ever, but score. The first. Goal.

Ross:I say start the Stützle line. Obviously Green controls the matchups now, but Timmy was the best player for the second half of that game. Get him on the ice early and set the tone that the Sens are gonna control the puck tonight.

Nada: Score first, preferably by Shane Pinto. I am also totally ok with benching Drake Batherson.

Joking!

Sort of....

Owen: I hope having the last change is enough but even just a big hit or something early to get the house rocking even more, ya know?

BT: Maybe they can feed off the crowd tonight? There isn't anything specific they can try to help, I think. Just have to match the intensity.

nkb: I'm gonna a bit contra to Owen (and popular wisdom) and say that the Sens need to play with a bit more control and discipline at the outset. They still need to stake their tails off and win puck battles, but they've been chasing hits for no good reason and it's throwing their transition defense out of whack. Toronto's torched Ottawa at the start of both games when the Sens have been running around. Take a deep breath, get focused, and let the game come to you.

Linus Ullmark seemed to find his game as Tuesday’s match-up wore on, making some huge saves to keep the Sens in striking distance. Do you have confidence he’s found his game? 

Beata: Yes, actually. Ullmark tends to do badly after a long break but once he finds his game he's usually good. We've got the good version now.

Ross: No. He was streaky during the year, and 3 goals on 21 shots (and 1.78 expected goals against, all strengths, per Natural Stat Trick) still isn't a good game. I'm not blaming him for any of the goals, just saying statistically that's still not great. Like I said after Game 1, the Sens can't afford to have a bad streak right now. I'm worried that history has shown us we get 5 games of mediocre Ullmark and then 5 games of world-beater Ullmark. We've only seen 2 games of mediocre Ullmark so far this series.

Nada: I think so. If he can survive the first half of the first period, he'll be ok. He seems to respond well to the home crowd but the Sens will certainly need to make sure they don't put all the pressure on him.

Owen: To my mind, Ullmark has been about as good as the defence in front of him. If Ottawa's skaters commit to playing responsibly like they did for stretches of the season then Ullmark will hold up his end of the bargain.

BT: More than after game 1, at least. He was still a little scrambly at times. I would like to see some better rebound control, too

nkb: I'm a big picture process guy, so I'm gonna stick to my guns here. Ullmark has been a great goalie for the last five years, he was very good in Ottawa, and that alone gives me confidence he'll be better in Game 3. I'm not worried.

Any predictions for Game 3?

Beata: I pretty much nailed my game 2 prediction, so hopefully my honest prediction for this one can give people hope: I think they have a huge bounce back game, take the lead early, and win by 3 or 4 goals.

Ross: I don't have any realistic predictions, and I don't know how to jinx it to go the way I want. I predict I will feel very tense for the whole game. Umm, 4-2 Ottawa.

Nada: Nope, going to skip any predictions right now.

Owen: I really kept my last prediction conservative and it didn't get me anywhere so I'll try something specific and say 2-0 shoutout for Ottawa.

BT: I said give me a 4-2 Ottawa win last time and didn't get it, so I might as well ask for that one again tonight. Second time is the charm.

nkb: I was right about Game 2 going to OT, and my pick to score the winning goal (Thomas Chabot) was even on the ice but not in the way that I'd hoped. I think Toronto's got one stinker in them, and the Sens will be fired up to be playing at home. Sens win 3-0 without too much of a fight from the Leafs.