Sens-Leafs, Game 2 Round Table Preview

We've reconvened the Council of Elders, err the Silver Seven Staff, to digest Game 1 and look ahead to Game 2 of the Battle of Ontario.

So the first game didn’t go as we’d all hoped. How are you feeling heading into Game 2? Where’s your head at?

Trevor: It sucks seeing the Sens lose by so much, but they came into this series as underdogs. A win on Tuesday can totally flip the script, and I think they’ll be much more ready to go this time around. 

Beata: I am trying not to catastrophize. It felt like a worst-case scenario game for the Sens and a best-case scenario game for the Leafs. The pessimist in me says that Toronto won in exactly the way they haven't been able to win in the past, and Ottawa looked like the team we saw in their worst games this season, and that's a bad combination. But the optimist in me says that there were plenty of positives, and there's lots of time to turn things around.

BT: I'm feeling okay. The big question is if the Sens have gotten past the "first time playoff" jitters. It looked like they were as the game went on, but they also ran around a bit too much when the game started getting out of hand. I guess I'm a little concerned about Ullmark too - he wasn't bad on any individual goal, but none of them were unstoppable and you can't let in 6 middle of the road goals and expect to win in the playoffs.

Ross: I'm doing OK. That was about as bad as Game 1 could go, score-wise, and we're all surviving. We know the Sens can be better than this. My only fear is that during the season they tended to go on extended streaks of being bad or being good. We can't afford a bad streak right now. But hey, you're not in trouble until you lose at home right? RIGHT?

Owen: I'm trying to stay rational here and remind myself how inexperienced this team is. One game is a small sample, right?

Shaan: I've seen this team, and especially Ullmark, bounce back from some *horrible* performances this season. I fully expect them to do the same in Game 2. 

Ary: In the preview for Game 1, I wrote about three factors to watch and the Sens were on the losing end of all of them: goaltending, penalty trouble, and depth scoring. I don't see all three issues repeating themselves in Game 2, and fundamentally, these two teams feel pretty evenly matched. A split in Toronto was always going to be the game plan and the Sens - oh the Sens! - like to make things hard for themselves, as we know. I'm not going to panic even if they end up down 0-2, it'd just make game 3 quite the pressure-filled environment. 

nkb: Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, so yeah, I'm not feeling great about Ottawa's first play-off game in eight years. At the same time, I'm not ready to panic unless they turn in another stinker tonight. Getting an early goal to set the tone would go a long way in my estimation.

Obviously the number of penalties (warranted or not) were a major issue, but the Penalty Kill also gave up an alarming number of high quality chances (and goals). Is there anything you’d like to see the Sens do differently? 

Trevor: They pretty much allowed goals right at the start of three separate power plays, so it’s hard to say what needs fixing. Ullmark needs to be better, faceoffs need to be won, and they probably just need to settle down. 

Beata: They need to win more faceoffs, for one. I don't know what exactly they can do to shut down the Leafs' powerplay, but I do know from many years of watching hockey that shutting down one specific team's powerplay is something that is fairly easy to learn. Once you know their set plays, you can anticipate them and everything becomes a lot easier.

BT: Apart from avoiding the box? Win. The. Faceoff. While the PK's success rate was what it was, all 3 goals came within seconds of losing the faceoff, and when they actually won the faceoffs the PK didn't actually look all that bad.

Ross: As noted by others, the Sens really need to win faceoffs. I'm a big believer that faceoffs are mostly overrated by pundits, but on the PK, the Leafs winning the faceoffs kept allowing them to set get set up and score. The PKs the Sens won the first faceoff on, they just cleared the puck and Toronto got nothing going. Claude Giroux is out on the PK to win that first faceoff. He was 61% on FOs during the season, the highest of anyone to take at least 30. In Game 1 he was 36%.

Owen: Early in the season the penalty kill seemed like a strength for this team and then something just went awry. I know they have the personnel and the ability, but maybe just don't take any penalties because it's really difficult to change systems mid-series.

Shaan: Just play a cleaner game. Toronto didn't force Ottawa into a single penalty, all of them were a result of their own stupid decisions, along with 1 or 2 questionable calls. 

Ary: I think my colleagues nailed the issue - Giroux needs to go back to his usual faceoff-winning self and the team needs to be tactical with their aggression instead of being wild. The Sens are the more physical team, and they have the ability to draw the Leafs into taking more penalties instead of the other way around. Of the players who took minors in game 1, Stützle, Batherson, Cozens, and Amadio all generally draw more than they take. 

nkb: Besides the face-offs thing, it's my view that the Sens need to be a bit more aggressive killing penalties against this particular opponent. The Leafs' PP is made up of guys who love to hang onto the puck, and laying off just plays into their hands. The best thing to do would be to stay out of the box altogether, and the second best thing would be to get more active and force some quicker decisions.

Was there anyone on the Sens that you thought had a good game? 

Trevor: Greig/Pinto/Amadio line looked great again, besides Greig’s undisciplined penalty. Amadio looked the most poised. 

Beata: The entire Cozens line but especially Drake Batherson. I also liked what I saw from the Pinto line and Fabian Zetterlund.

BT: Not from start to finish. Third line was mostly good, and Stützle and Tkachuk both had their good moments.

Ross: Outside of his cross-check, Greig had a good game. Amadio stood out positively to me. Batherson also looked engaged and was unlucky to get called for tripping. It bodes well that 80% of the roster can definitely play better than they did last game.

Owen: Like everyone else, I liked the performance from Ottawa's middle six and most people figured Ottawa's success would hinge largely on those forwards.

Shaan: Aside from agreeing with the consensus on the second and third lines, I thought the bottom pair would be the biggest problem for the Sens but they held their own pretty well aside from Kleven's high-stick (which didn't matter seeing as the game was over after Rielly's lucky goal). 

Ary: It's important to not let the final score dictate our overall feelings in a playoff series, even though wins are what matter at the end of the day. It's hard to imagine Ottawa playing better than they did at 5-on-5 - they won't lose many games with Tim Stützle being on the ice for 28 shot attempts for and only 4 against. What sucks is that the Sens won't be the only team making adjustments, and I expect the Leafs to play better at 5-on-5 overall unless they really suck. Pinto feasted on Tavares-Nylander while Stützle did the same against Matthews-Marner, so I wonder if Craig Berube will try to flip those matchups. 

nkb: I agree with everyone else that the Pinto line was sharp, and, as Ary alluded to, I actually liked Stützle's game for the most part. He was skating well and created a number of good chances. He didn't look jittery at all, in fact he looked a bit too amped up, chasing hits, which is not really his style. Getting chances isn't enough in the play-offs though, you need to bury some of them.

Prediction for Game 2 tonight?

Trevor: I’ll say the Sens bounce back with a tight 3-2 win. 

Beata: The Sens play much better but lose 2-1 in overtime. They head home down 2-0 in the series, but with a bit more confidence that they can shut this team down.

BT: Give me a 4-2 win.

Ross: It'll be low-scoring. Ottawa's gonna play a much more choke-the-life-out-of-the-game style, like did the last time they played the Leafs during the season. I'm gonna say a 1-0 OT win, but still for Toronto, to jinx it for a Sens win. And by saying it's supposed to be a jinx, I'm reverse psychologying it into staying a Sens win.

Owen: A bounce back from Ullmark. Maybe Ottawa concedes a bit more at five-on-five but they benefit from some timely goaltending.

Shaan: I expect a lower-scoring game. Ottawa will win 3-2 in overtime in spite of a much better 5-on-5 effort from Toronto.

Ary: I think it'll be a low-scoring contest, 3-1. Let's hope it's in Ottawa's favour. 

nkb: I'm gonna counter consensus opinion here and say it's a high scoring affair, but this time Ottawa comes out on the right end of it. 5-4 in OT, Chabot with the winner.