Analysis

Senators RFA Dossier: Jim O'Brien

Unlike some of Ottawa's free agents, such as Matt Carkner or Zenon Konopka, Jim O'Brien's situation is relatively straight-forward. The young centre will be re-signed, but on what terms? As a former 1^st round pick, O'Brien is likely to get more chances than a typical bottom-six forward gets. After an underwhelming first season in Bingo, O'Brien had a productive season for the AHL-affiliate in 2010-11 and his improved play over the course of the past two years resulted in a mid-season call-up to Ottawa in 2011-12.

While O'Brien will most likely slide between the 3^rd and 4^th lines, he has shown offensive upside in the AHL (scoring 24 goals and 56 points in 2010-11), and he might be able to provide modest offensive contributions in the future.

Jim O`Brien

#42 / Center / Ottawa Senators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 200

Born: Jan 29, 1989

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2011 - Jim O`Brien	28	3	3	6	6	4	0	0	1		37

Contract status: O'Brien is a restricted free agent, coming off the last year of his entry level contract, and made $700,000 in 2011-12.

Season in review: Called up mid-season, O'Brien initially played a 4^th line role, but as Zack Smith's play faltered in the second-half of the season, O'Brien challenged his teammate for a place in the top-9. O'Brien managed to win the trust of head coach Paul MacLean, so much so that Chief O'Brien was on the ice in overtime of Game 4 against the New York Rangers, notching an assist on Kyle Turris' winner.

Comparable players: There are a few young centres that compare with O'Brien, who play a bottom-six role.

Zack Smith

#15 / Center / Ottawa Senators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Born: Apr 05, 1988

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2011 - Zack Smith	81	14	12	26	4	98	1	2	3		134

Teammate Zack Smith is perhaps the best comparison for O'Brien. While Smith is a year older, both play a checking game, though O'Brien is much less physical. Zack played part of the 2010-2011 season with the Senators, scoring 4 goals, 5 assists, and 9 points in 55 games, a similar pace to O'Brien in 2011-12. Smith's ELC finished at the end of 2010-11 and he signed a 2-year, $1.4 million, one-way deal.

Mikael Backlund

#11 / Center / Calgary Flames

Height: 6-0

Weight: 196

Born: Mar 17, 1989

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2011 - Mikael Backlund	41	4	7	11	-13	16	2	0	2		85

Like O'Brien, Backlund is a former late 1^st round pick who has only started to find his role in the NHL over the past 2 seasons. The same size and age as O'Brien, Backlund took a step back in 2011-12, but his 2010-11 campaign (73-10-15-25) illustrated more offensive upside. Backlund's ELC also finished at the end of the season, and he's a RFA looking to improve on the $787,500 he made this year. His greater offensive totals over the last 2 years give him an advantage over O'Brien, and Backlund will probably receive a one-way deal and a modest raise.

Cory Emmerton

#48 / Center / Detroit Red Wings

Height: 5-11

Weight: 183

Born: Jun 01, 1988

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2011 - Cory Emmerton	71	6	4	10	1	14	0	0	0		63

Despite playing in 71 games for the Red Wings this season, Emmerton's offensive upside was limited and he was used primarily in a checking role in his first full season in the NHL. Emmerton, the 41^st overall pick in the 2006 Draft, re-signed with the Wings in the summer of 2011 after finishing his ELC. He signed a 3-year, two-way deal worth $1.6 million.

Conclusions: I suspect O'Brien will get a deal similar to Smith's: a short, one-way deal paying him close to the league minimum or slightly above it. Bryan Murray used one-way contracts to motivate his RFAs last summer and it would make sense for Murray to handle O'Brien the same way.

Should Jim O'Brien be given a one-way contract?

Yes, he showed promise down the stretch	149
No, he hasn't earned it yet	101