Revisiting Senators Mid-Season Over/Under's
At the halfway mark, I did seven over/under's for the rest of the season. How do those picks look at the end of the year?
Back in January when we were about halfway through the season, I set some over/under's for the rest of the year. I didn't forget about them, and I was curious to see how I did on these seven picks that I made.
So how did I do?
Erik Karlsson points: 81.5 (Under)--Incorrect
Here's what I said on Karlsson:
Remember, in 2011-12 he was on pace for a similar amount, but ended up with 78 points. I think he could crack 80 points exactly, but he'll end up just short of this mark. I'll take the under, but just barely.
I was off on him by two points, and it's incredibly impressive that he was able to finish with a point per game. I'm glad I got this one wrong.
Mark Borowiecki Scratches: 0.5 (Under)--Correct
At the time I remember I simply could not imagine a scenario where he wasn't in the lineup. He would eventually get injured and miss the last 19 games of the season, but before that he was not scratched once. I worry what will happen next year, especially if Dave Cameron is the coach. If it's someone like, oh I don't know, Claude Julien then things will probably change.
I think it is funny how predictable this was though, because even if he was healthy down the stretch, he would have stayed in the lineup due to other injuries.
Trades involving NHLers: 1.5 (Over)--Correct
There were two! The Dion Phaneuf trade happened a few weeks after this article, and that certainly counts as a trade with "NHLers." Two days before the deadline Ottawa made a minor league blockbuster with Phil Varone and Jason Akeson coming to Binghamton, but that doesn't count as a real NHL trade. The good news for me is that right as the deadline was closing, Shane Prince was dealt to the Islanders, making this pick correct.
Although, I don't know if that's good news considering we gave up a real NHL player for not much. Still, Ottawa made two trades.
5 on 5 CF%: 47.8% (Under)--Correct
They finished the year just barely under at 47.5%. They at least moved up from 28th in possession to 24th, but they were still in the red for the entire season. This is one of the picks that I don't like being correct on, because this is certainly a cause for concern heading into next season.
The return of a healthy Clarke MacArthur and Kyle Turris would be a massive boost to this team possession-wise.
Bobby Ryan points: 64.5 (Over)--Incorrect
This is the third straight year that Bobby has trailed off in the second half of the season, and I'm starting to think it's a conditioning issue. He probably isn't "out of shape," but he looks more lethargic in the second half and he is not the electric player that he can be. He was on pace for 68 points at the time, which looks a bit unrealistic looking back on it. Even at the time, I acknowledged that his play has gone down at the end before:
In his first two seasons here he has tailed off at the end of the season, and we don't know if he can keep his efforts up for an entire season.
I guess I was just optimistic that he could buck the trend this year. He still finished with 56 points, which is good enough to be a first line player. Still though, for a guy who is being paid $7.25 million for the next six years, you would like to see him play well for an entire season.
Mike Hoffman goals: 39.5 (Over)--Incorrect
Oof. He was playing out of his mind at the time, and was on pace for 39 goals, while already having 20. After that point, he only had nine and finished oh so close to a 30-goal/30 assist season. Back then I said that he will "surely hit 30 goals now (barring any injuries)," but his play dipped for a while there. I am still a big believer in Hoffman's game and think that he should be locked up long-term, but it seems like his ceiling is a 30-goal talent. He is turning 27 later this year, and this is probably as good as it is going to get, which is perfectly fine.
I think I was too bullish on him while he was on a hot streak, but he is still an extremely valuable player. If he isn't on the Senators next year, then he needs to be traded for a quality defenseman.
Team Points: 91.5 (Under)--Correct
I was safely under on this pick. Ottawa finished with 85 points and they were never even close to a playoff spot after the halfway mark. They were actually on pace for 86 in January, so they made no solid push at all. The interesting thing is, 92 points would not have even been enough for them to make the playoffs, as the Red Wings had 93. Without the tie-breaker, Ottawa would have needed nine more points on the year, which does not seem plausible.
So in the end, I get four out of seven correct. Obviously these thresholds were created by myself, but I think they were pretty fair at the time. Plus the point of it wasn't to make myself look smart, I just wanted to predict a few things down the stretch and revisit them later.
I have to say though, it would have been nice to be incorrect on the last one, because no playoff's in April is terrible. However, winning a top-3 pick would completely change my mind.