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Putting the Ottawa Senators’ Required Improvement in Context

The Sens have a huge task in front of them, but has it been done before?

The Ottawa Senators need to make a gigantic leap up the standings if they want to participate in the play-offs next year. Fans of the team are likely very familiar with the number 27, the margin by which they failed to qualify for last year’s post-season. There can be no doubt that the team’s roster will be greatly improved, and anything but a substantial change in the end-of-season position will be a disappointment. However, expectations are riding high in the nation’s capital: you don’t shove all of your chips into the middle like Pierre Dorion did this off-season just to miss out on all the fun.

A fun parlour game for Sens fans to pass the dog days of summer has been breaking down just how exactly, Ottawa can be improved by 27 points. The rationale is usually a combination of the addition of Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, and to a lesser degree Jake Sanderson, along with better health for several of the core players that missed substantial time this past season. As of this writing, however, I have yet to see anyone attempt to quantify just how likely a 27 point improvement really is. It seems like a big ask, and certainly that type of jump doesn’t happen often, but just how common an occurrence is it really? The answer is that since 2007-08, 15 full NHL seasons, there have been fifteen instances where a team improved by at least 27 points versus their year prior. He’s a (massive) table with all of the raw data in case you wanted to sort through it yourselves:

Team Records

YEAR	ANA	ARZ	BOS	BUF	CAR	CBJ	CGY	CHI	COL	DAL	DET	EDM	FLA	L.A	MIN	MTL	N.J	NSH	NYI	NYR	OTT	PHI	PIT	S.J	STL	T.B	TOR	VAN	VGK	WPG	WSH
07-08	102	83	94	90	92	80	94	88	95	97	115	88	85	71	98	104	99	91	79	97	94	95	102	108	79	71	83	88	0	76	94
08-09	91	79	116	91	97	92	99	104	69	83	111	85	93	79	89	93	106	88	61	95	83	99	99	117	92	66	81	100	0	76	108
09-10	89	107	91	100	80	79	90	112	95	88	102	62	77	101	84	88	103	100	79	87	94	88	101	113	90	80	74	103	0	83	121
10-11	99	99	103	96	91	81	94	97	68	95	104	62	72	98	86	96	81	99	73	93	74	106	106	105	87	103	85	117	0	80	107
11-12	80	97	102	89	82	65	90	101	88	89	102	74	94	95	81	78	102	104	79	109	92	103	108	96	109	84	80	111	0	84	92
12-13	113	87	106	82	72	94	72	132	67	82	96	77	62	101	94	108	82	70	94	96	96	84	123	97	103	68	97	101	0	87	97
13-14	116	89	117	52	83	93	77	107	112	91	93	67	66	100	98	100	88	88	79	96	88	94	109	111	111	101	84	83	0	84	90
14-15	109	56	96	54	71	89	97	102	90	92	100	62	91	95	100	110	78	104	101	113	99	84	98	89	109	108	68	101	0	99	101
15-16	103	78	93	81	86	76	77	103	82	109	93	70	103	103	87	82	84	96	100	101	85	96	104	98	107	97	69	75	0	77	120
16-17	105	70	95	78	87	108	94	109	48	79	79	103	81	86	106	103	70	94	94	102	98	88	111	99	99	94	95	69	0	87	118
17-18	101	70	112	62	83	97	84	76	95	92	73	78	96	98	101	71	97	117	80	77	67	98	100	100	94	113	105	73	109	114	105
18-19	80	86	107	76	99	98	107	84	90	93	74	79	86	71	83	96	72	100	103	78	64	82	100	101	99	128	100	81	93	99	104
19-20	78	87	117	80	95	95	93	84	108	96	46	97	91	75	90	83	80	91	94	93	73	104	101	74	110	108	95	91	101	94	105
2021	63	79	107	54	117	70	81	81	120	88	70	105	116	72	110	86	66	94	104	88	75	85	113	72	92	110	113	73	120	92	113
21-22	76	57	107	75	116	81	111	68	119	98	74	104	122	99	113	55	63	97	84	110	73	61	103	77	109	110	115	92	94	89	100

Some notes on the data:

All of the seasons have been normalized to 82 games so that we can make apples-to-apples comparisons. Where the season was abbreviated, in 2012-13, 2019-20, and 2021, I took the PTS% for each team and pro-rated their pace to a full 82 game season.
Improvements are then calculated by looking at the difference for each team from one season to the next. This leaves us with a sample of 425 “improvements”.
The thirteen seasons in question: Anaheim Ducks 2012-13, Arizona Coyotes 09-10, Buffalo Sabres 2015-16, Columbus Blue Jackets 2012-13 and 2016-17, Calgary Flames 2021-22, Chicago 2012-13, Colorado Avalanche 2012-13 and 2017-18, Edmonton Oilers 2016-17, Los Angeles Kings 2021-22, Montreal Canadiens 2012-13, New Jersey Devils 2017-18, Tampa Bay Lightning 2013-14, Winnipeg Jets 2017-18/

The good news for Sens fans is that with fifteen occurrences in fifteen seasons, we see an average of one team per year that meets the required threshold. It’s also good news that most of the big improvements have come in the back half of the sample and that two such cases were just last year: the Flames and the Kings. It’s far from impossible and it’s even been happening recently!

The bad news is that 15 out of 425 is a measly 3.5% of seasons. It doesn’t happen a lot. The worse news is that fully four of the fifteen came during the shortened 2012-13 season when the standings were particularly chaotic and the sample was the absolute smallest. Sustaining a very large improvement over 82 games is a lot harder than the mere 48 that every team played that season. The real number is probably closer to eleven out of 394, or 2.8%.

Where does that leave the Ottawa Senators’ 2022-23 play-off aspirations? Firmly in the realm of possible but highly unlikely — but maybe that will just make what comes next all the sweeter.

Putting the Ottawa Senators’ Required Improvement in Context

Team Records

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