The short answer: Very hard.
In the spirit of From The Rink's James Mirtle's "How hard is it to win the Stanley Cup?" and Habs Eyes on the Prize's Robert L.'s "How Hard Is It For A First-Round Pick To Win A Stanley Cup?" comes this exploration of the chances an Ottawa Senators draft choice might go on to win the Stanley Cup. The answer?
Zero per cent.
Since the franchise first started drafting in the 1992 NHL Entry Draft, 151 prospects have had their name called by Ottawa brass, and not one of those individuals has gone on to hoist the Stanley Cup over their head. Certainly, the sample size is relatively small, and it's true that only 14 per cent of NHLers ever win the championship, but doesn't this indicate a fairly ugly drafting record for the seven all-time Ottawa Senators general managers?
Pundits have historically given the Ottawa Senators some reasonable kudos for drafting well, thanks in large part to selecting diamonds-in-the-rough who are able to develop into regular NHL contributors. But for every Daniel Alfredsson (1994, 6th round, 133 overall) and Sami Salo (1996, 9th round, 239 overall), there's a Mathieu Chouinard (1998, 1st round, 15 overall) and Jakup Klepis (2002, 1st round, 16 overall).
Although 41 per cent of the Senators' 151 all-time draft choices (62 in real terms) have gone on to play at least one NHL game, only 17 per cent (or 26 players) have hit the 200-game mark, and 8.6 (13 individuals) per cent have played over 500 career NHL games. This, of course, includes players drafted in recent years who haven't had the opportunity to play in the NHL yet, but the statistics remain interesting nonetheless.
Although he and the Detroit Red Wings didn't manage to seal the deal on Tuesday night, Marian Hossa has the opportunity to be the first Ottawa Senators draft pick ever to win the Stanley Cup this Friday in game seven of the Stanley Cup Final. And if he doesn't, well, it's anyone's guess as to who could be the first.
For anyone interested, here are the numbers for each draft year since the Senators' joined the NHL:
- 2008: 0/7
- 2007: 0/4
- 2006: 0/7
- 2005: 0/8
- 2004: 0/11
- 2003: 0/9
- 2002: 0/8
- 2001: 0/12
- 2000: 0/9
- 1999: 0/10
- 1998: 0/10
- 1997: 0/8
- 1996: 0/7
- 1995: 0/9
- 1994: 0/10
- 1993: 0/10
- 1992: 0/12/
And just for fun, can anyone think of a player who left the Ottawa Senators and then won the Stanley Cup afterwards? I'm having a hard time thinking of any. Feel free to post in the comments.
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