Game 70 preview: Ottawa Senators @ Dallas Stars

The Ottawa Senators have 13 games left in the season and don't have much to play for. Per Sportsclubstats.com, a 10-1-2 run will leave them with a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs. Playoffs aside, a win would be nice. The team hasn't won a game in exactly two weeks and hasn't allowed less than three goals on standard NHL quality ice since 6 February.

Here are the expected lines from the Ottawa Senators.

Hemsky - Spezza - Michalek
MacArthur - Turris - Ryan
Greening - Smith - Neil
Hoffman - Zibanejad - Condra

Methot - Karlsson
Phillips - Ceci
Cowen - Gryba

Lehner (starter)
Hammond

Some notes for tonight:

• The Senators have lost five in a row. Seems like 10. They have scored 16 goals in those five games and come away with zero wins and two points.
• The Stars are at home and desperately need a win to stay within striking distance of the Coyotes for the final playoff spot.
• Erik Karlsson's next goal will tie his own club record for goals by a defenceman that he also shares with Steve Duchesne. He is on a five-game points streak with seven points.
• Karlsson is having a nearly identical (and slightly better) season this year than he did in his Norris winning season by fancy stats. This season he has on an on-ice Corsi percentage of 54.9% (54.8% in 2011-2012), relative Corsi percentage of +4.6% (+4.0% in 2011-2012), 55.1% offensive to defensive zone start ratio (56.4% in 2011-2012) and playing on average against players that play on average 29.1% of their team's 5-on-5 ice time (29.3% in 2011-2012).
• Then why is Karlsson -20 this year and +16 in 2011-2012? Well for one thing Karlsson is a -9 in 5-on-5 goalie-on situations. The rest are empty net and shorthanded goals. Ottawa has allowed seven empty net goals. Opposition goalies were allowing goals on 8.1% of shots with Karlsson on the ice in 2011-2012 versus 9.1% this year. The Senators were scoring on 8.9% of shots with Karlsson on the ice in 2011-2012 and 7.3% this year.
• Here is a list of teams with less points than the Ottawa Senators: Flames, Islanders, Panthers, Oilers and Sabres. The Ducks are going to get a good pick unless the Senators improve.
• What has happened to Robin Lehner? Yikes.
• If Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson can get two more goals, the team will have five different 20-goal scorers but likely none with 30.

Here are some stats leaders for the two teams tonight.