Game 56 Hub: Ottawa Senators @ Washington Capitals

7th-worst team in the league. Cower in fear, NHL!

Game 56 Hub: Ottawa Senators @ Washington Capitals
Photo by Ingo Doerrie / Unsplash

You've heard of the Hamburglar run, in which the Ottawa Senators made a miraculous run into the playoffs from a seemingly insurmountable deficit on the back of Vezina-caliber goaltending.

This is the Forsburglar run, in which everything remains the same, except for the goaltending being merely *adequate*. Just goes to show how starved the team has been for saves, in that a .897 save percentage is enough to make him seem like a brick wall in comparison to every goalie who's entered the organization since 2017.

The Sens are on an 11-4-3 run, and while this pace won't be enough for a playoff spot, there's reason to believe if they keep up their recent level of play, they can put together a massive winning streak and increase their chances to a more realistic number. They're looking for their 3rd straight win tonight against the Washington Capitals.

Despite a road record of 8-14-1, it's not all that bad when you take out the (0-10-0) games against Western Conference teams.

Based on his absence in the morning skate, it appears likely that Artem Zub will miss his second game in a row. The projected lines are the same, with Anton Forsberg making his third consecutive start.

Game Notes:

  • Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto haven't played together much at all over the last few years, but their line with Vladimir Tarasenko is performing well, with a 61.98% expected goals share at 5-on-5. The Sens are taking a balanced approach to their Top 9 and it's working wonders – most team's top pairings can handle any of them, but not all at once. Forgot what having good depth feels like.
  • Alex Ovechkin has struggled this season on his quest to catch Wayne Gretzky's goal total – just 16 goals in 53 games this season. However, there's still something left in the tank, as half of those goals have come in the last 10 games.
  • Thomas Chabot is riding a 3-game goal streak and ranks 4th in team scoring on The Run, with 13 points in his last 18 games. He's also improved defensively, to the point where he's not impacting his team negatively in their end. What makes that aspect of his game hard to evaluate is that when he plays with Jakob Chychrun, he's on the ice for more goals and fewer shots, while the opposite occurs when he plays away from him. How big of an impact does goaltending have here?
  • Catch tonight's game at 7:00 pm EST, on *toilet flush sound effect* and TSN 1200.


Game 56 Senators Capitals
Category Player # Player #
Goals Brady Tkachuk 25 Dylan Strome 21
Assists Tim Stützle 39 John Carlson 29
Points Tim Stützle 53 Strome, Ovechkin 42
Shots Brady Tkachuk 238 Alex Ovechkin 188
Time on Ice/GP Thomas Chabot 24:04 John Carlson 25:58
Game 56 Senators Capitals
Category # Rank # Rank
Goals/GP 3.35 8th 2.52 30th
Goals Against/GP 3.51 28th 3.05 15th
Shots/GP 32.6 8th 27.6 29th
Shots Against/GP 30.0 15th 30.7 21st
Powerplay % 16.3 26th 16.8 25th
Penalty Kill % 76.2 29th 80.1 14th
Corsi % (5v5 SVA) 49.94 18th 46.24 26th
xGF % (5v5 SVA) 49.18 22nd 46.00 27th

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