Game 41 Preview and Open Thread: Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins

You know what, if nothing else, I feel extremely grateful that I feel a real personal investment in the Ottawa Senators at the midway mark of this season, and that I have a lot to say about this team. Things look kinda bleak but at least we don't have any sort of media circus, off-ice drama detracting from the core experience of sports fandom. The Sens are the same and the Sens are different.

We've had a decent amount of news in the past day or so with Ridly Greig's extension, Nick Cousins' DOPS fine, and Tkaptain calling a team meeting after a humbling loss on Thursday. Oh and we have the Lebreton thing and all of those injuries (along with the inevitable trade speculation). If nothing else, it feels very interesting to be a Sens fan right now. And I can understand Brady Tkachuk calling said meeting because it feels like two or three more consecutive losses here really could spell the end of the season. Meet the old Sens.

Same as the new Sens? The Senators find themselves in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff picture at the midway mark of the season. They have put the most difficult parts of their schedule behind them. Oh, and they have a very good young core intact for years to come. Distilling this team to the best of my ability I have three questions for the remaining forty games and change: 1) Can this team score at even strength? 2) Can this team fix their special teams mid-season? and 3) Does this team have a contingency plan if Linus Ullmark doesn't come back soon?

Game Notes

• Ottawa and Pittsburgh last played against each other December 14th in Ottawa and Senators won 3-2 (so far so good). Both teams have lost six of their last ten games played. Pittsburgh beat Edmonton 5-3 Thursday in Pittsburgh. These teams have a lot in common even if it feels like Ottawa should pass Pittsburgh on the former's ascent and the latter's descent. If only things went the way we drew them up in professional sports.
• For all the losing that the Sens have done lately, one can easily overlook, as I keep doing, that Ottawa continues to do an elite job of limiting expected goals against at five-on-five. The Penguins don't do this. You know what to do.
• For all their defensive prowess at five-on-five, Ottawa's penalty kill defense leaves a lot to be desired and without Linus Ullmark that doesn't bode well for long-term success. And of course the Penguins generate a tonne of expected goals on the powerplay. In this matchup, the special teams rates actually reflect the nerdy numbers. Don't take any penalties for the love of god.
• The Penguins actually do a pretty good job limiting expected goals on the penalty kill and that presents a problem for a Senators powerplay that has really struggled despite the top-end talent Ottawa has. Ottawa will more or less have to win this game at even strength.
• Let's just hope that Ottawa doesn't turn another mediocre goaltender into an overnight Vezina candidate. For all the shots Ottawa gets per 60, they don't generate much in terms of five-on-five expected goals. The Sens should probably work on that.

Ottawa Senators Injuries: Michael Amadio, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Noah Gregor, Travis Hamonic, David Perron, Linus Ullmark

Pittsburgh Penguins Injuries: Evgeni Malkin, Philip Tomasino

Where to watch/listen: TSN5, TVAS, TSN1200 @4PM EST

Lines from Last Game

Ottawa Senators

Pittsburgh Penguins

Stats