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Game 30 Preview and Open Thread: Ottawa Senators @ Detroit Red Wings

Different but the same

NHL: APR 12 Senators at Red Wings Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Game Notes:

  • I find looking at the standings in the NHL misleading on any given day and consider this game no exception. The Red Wings have four more points than the Senators but also have four more overtime/shootout losses and have already gone to the shootout thrice this season. And the more you break down the numbers, the more I genuinely believe Ottawa should lead Detroit in the division. With that in mind, they play on the ice and not on paper.
  • Detroit comes into this game ice-cold, after a surprisingly strong start propelled them to said spot in the division standings. After an atrocious November, Ottawa has put together one of its better stretches to date.
  • In uncharacteristic fashion, Ottawa pulled off an ugly win in the game 29 against Montreal (losing the nerd stats battle but winning the game nonetheless). Detroit has done this pretty much all season with mediocre nerd stat rates belying their success in the standings.
  • As much as I would love to use the injuries excuse should Ottawa lose today’s matinee (Jacob Bernard-Docker, Mathieu Joseph, Tyler Motte, Josh Norris, Tim Stützle, and Artem Zub), Detroit has an appalling lineup in the absences of: Tyler Bertuzzi, Robby Fabbri, Robert Hägg, Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin, Matt Määttä, Mark Pysyk, Jakub Vrána, and Filip Zadina.
  • To break down the stats quickly, Detroit has had much better shooting luck so far (and reliable goaltending about the same as Ottawa’s). Ottawa has better five-on-five percentages thanks primarily to their offensive output. Detroit plays a lower-event style but fails to break even given their minimal shot generation. Again, they convert an abnormal amount on very few chances, relatively speaking. Ottawa, on the other hand has barely converted despite getting a lot of chances.
  • Ottawa has the powerplay advantage as this group has finally started living up to its potential. Detroit does a much better job limiting chances on the penalty kill and takes fewer penalties. Ottawa has a better PK rate thanks to stellar PK goaltending.

Expected and Actual Goals

Team 5V5 xGF/60 5V5 Sh% 5V5 xGA/60 5V5 Sv% PP xGF/60 PP Sh% PK xGA/60 PK Sv%
Team 5V5 xGF/60 5V5 Sh% 5V5 xGA/60 5V5 Sv% PP xGF/60 PP Sh% PK xGA/60 PK Sv%
Ottawa 2.96 6.72 2.68 92.01 9.41 18.02 9.04 87.78
Detroit 2.22 8.28 2.69 92.13 8.20 13.04 7.98 86.05
  • In summary, maybe Ottawa wins the nerd stat battle and gets burned by a combination of Detroit’s goaltending and their improbable shooting luck. Or maybe Ottawa again loses the fancy stats game (like they did against Montreal) while riding their suddenly dominant powerplay and their superb penalty kill goaltending to an improbable victory. Both teams have lots of injuries but want to prove they don’t belong in the division basement. If I’ve learned anything heading into game 30, I have no idea what to expect from the 2022-23 Sens heading into gameday (and neither do you).

Where to watch/listen: TSN5 TVAS TSN1200 @1PMEST

Lines from Last Game:

Ottawa Senators:

Tkachuk - Brassard - Giroux
DeBrincat - Pinto - Batherson
Lucchini - Kastelic - Watson
Kelly - Gambrell - Chartier

Chabot - Zaitsev
Sanderson - Hamonic
Brännström - Holden

Detroit Red Wings:

Kubalik - Copp - Raymond
Perron - Rasmussen - Sundqvist
Söderblom - Suter - Erne
Czarnik - Veleno - Berggren

Chiarot - Seider
Oesterle - Lindström
Walman - Hronek

Stats:

Players

Game 30 Ottawa Senators Detroit Red Wings
Game 30 Ottawa Senators Detroit Red Wings
Category Player # Player #
Goals Brady Tkachuk 13 Kubalik/Larkin 10
Assists Brady Tkachuk 20 Filip Hronek 18
Points Brady Tkachuk 33 Dylan Larkin 27
Shots Brady Tkachuk 127 Dylan Larkin 94
ATOI Thomas Chabot 26:02 Moritz Seider 22:51

Teams

Game 30 Ottawa Senators Detroit Red Wings
Game 30 Ottawa Senators Detroit Red Wings
Category Rank # Rank #
Goals 16th 3.04 24th 2.85
Goals against 18th 3.11 16th 3.02
Shots 5th 33.5 28th 28.9
Shots against 25th 32.5 14th 30.1
Powerplay 5th 27.4% 25th 20.2%
Penalty Kill 15th 79.3% 18th 78.6%
Corsi% (5V5SVA) 10th 51.9% 28th 45.2%
xGoals% (5V5SVA) 12th 51.8% 28th 44.7%