FanPost

Could Ottawa's 'islander pick' be as high as 13th overall?

I see people say this pick will be between #18-22 (https://senshot.com/2020/05/14/ottawa-senators-first-round/) and many sites using pick 21 as its tentative position but I wanted explore this pick in more detail.

Scenario 1: Assuming the Islanders lose their play-in against Florida, and assuming they fail to win the phase 2 lottery (for 1st overall), the position of their pick (which is now, of course, Ottawa's) will be determined by their relative point % in the regular season among the 7 play-in losers that fail to win the phase 2 lottery. Of this group of 7 teams, the lowest winning % team will pick 9th and the highest % team picks 15th. Where would the Islanders rank within this group? Of the 16 possible teams to be one of the 8 play-in losers, only Pittsburgh and Carolina have higher point % than the Islanders. So best case is Pit and Car both lose their play-ins too, and also don't win the phase 2 lottery. In this scenario, the Islanders pick becomes the 13th pick. If one of Pit or Car lose their play-in and fail to win the lottery, the pick becomes 14th. And the worst case, assuming the Islanders loser their play-in, is pick #15.

Scenario 2: If they win their play-in but lose in the first round, the pick become 16 to 23, again ranked from worst to best point % among the eight 1st round losers. Of the 24 teams these could be, the Islanders have the 11th highest %. There is a high likelihood the seven other teams will have a mix of lower and higher winning % and therefore this pick, should NYI beat Florida but lose in the first round (opponent TBD), will probably be 19-21.

Scenario 3: If they win the play-in and round 1, they pick between 25 and 31, which as far as the quality of player available is concerned is roughly equivalent and so is not worth discussing further.

Bottom Line:

Ottawa's third 1st round pick (the "islander's pick") will be between 13 and 31.

Ottawa fans should be cheering for Florida to win in a big way as this would result in the 13th-15th overall pick (and if you believe the difference between picking 13th and 15th is worth cheering for the Canadiens or Rangers to win, you can do that too).

As most sport books have the NYI as slight favourites to beat Florida, but little confidence in them moving past one of Wash, Phi, Bos or TB, this is the most likely scenario. Ottawa fans should at that point, be cheering for the higher point % teams (Pit, Car, the teams with "byes" into the first round) to also lose. The more upsets in round 1 the better for Ottawa. If Islanders lose and only one other series results in an upset, Ottawa's pick becomes #22. Two upsets: #21.... Seven upsets: #16. Of the eight round 1 series we can be fairly certain there will be 2-4 upsets and therefore Ottawa's most likely outcome is pick 19-21. My guess is three upsets and pick 20.

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