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Deciding whether or not we "lost" the lottery?

Just ask yourself if you'd be willing to draw again.

Ottawa had a 9% chance of getting picks 3 & 5 which they got. They had a 37% chance of getting a worse combo (4&5, 5&6), and a 53% chance of getting a better combo (1&2, 1&5, 2&4, etc).

Would you roll the dice again and risk a 37% chance of ending up with a worse combo?

Personally, I'd take the bird in the hand. Additionally, I see little value difference between the 2nd and 3rd picks this year (Byfield vs Stutzle), and even less difference between the 4th and 5th picks (Dyrsdale, Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, or maybe even Holtz). So the only reason you'd risk drawing again would be to chase that 25% chance of getting #1.

So you can say we "didn't win" the lottery, but unless you'd want to draw again, you can't say we "lost".

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