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Karlsson Trade a Year and a Half Out

Saw a Shawn Simpson tweet about this today, and it's worth looking at the haul Dorion managed to get for Karlsson, and how the Sens are winning the hell out of that trade.

Josh Norris

Definitely the centrepiece of the deal when they made it, and arguably still is, Norris came in and had an amazing rookie year in the AHL. Now AHL success is by no means a guarantee of NHL success, but Norris did have a better rookie season in the AHL than NHL studs like Mikko Rantanen, Jake Guentzel and Kyle Connor. If he reaches his potential as a top six centre, the Sens are in good position to win this trade based on his career alone.

First Round Pick in 2020 (Likely Top 5)

If the draft moves ahead with the old lottery format, as has been suggested by the league, this is a locked in top 5 pick, but even in the worst case scenario it's 6th overall. With that pick the Sens could pickup either Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond, Jamie Drysdale, Alexander Holtz, or Marco Rossi. All project as top six forwards, except Drysdale who looks a lot like a top two defenceman. Two young top six forwards for a defenceman with a history of injury and what now appear to be declining skills, that's a hell of a deal.

Chris Tierney

Of course that isn't the end of the deal, as the Sens got Tierney in the deal. Tierney is a good space filler in the top six right now, but projects well as a bottom six forward once the team is competitive. He has 85 points across two seasons in Ottawa and has been a great surprise in this trade.

Rudolf Balcers

How does Balcers project? I'm not sure yet, but definitely in the NHL. To me he's probably a great energy guy like Pageau was, but maybe he's more. He's gravy here, as the Sens have already comfortably won the trade in my opinion.

Third Round Pick in 2020 (formerly Dylan Demelo)

In a draft this deep, I'm optimistic that this pick will get us a top nine or fifth or sixth defendant. Who will this be? I have no idea, but I've got hope for it. Does it replace the steady play of Demelo that we all came to love? Most will say no, but it adds to the crazy haul we've already got from this trade.

2019 Second Round Pick

This pick was traded so the Sens could move up and pick Mads Sogaard. Is he going to be a starter in the NHL? No clue, but he's big, he's skilled and he has a chance to make it. He is the cherry on top of what we already know we have.

2021 Second Round Pick

Finally we have the last pick, and one that might be moved at the draft to move the Islanders 1st up a bit, or maybe to move around in 2021 instead. We're way too far away to speculate who might go here, but it's at least nice little add-on to the deal.

Conclusion

What we know we have from the trade: a prospect who projects as a top six centre, a bottom six centre, a prospect who projects as an NHL regular and a promising goaltending prospect. What we think we'll have: another top six forward or top two defender, and two picks that could help the team move up in this draft or the next one.

What the Sharks got: a declining Erik Karlsson and mediocre prospect who's already left the team.

To say the Sens won here is an understatement and I think all of us, myself included, need to apologize to our GM for our outrage when it happened.

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