This fanpost is in response to Ary M's excellent article reflecting on the 2014 Top 25 Under 25. Like usual, Ary's article is informative, thought provoking, and entertaining to read. However like most prospect focused articles, I felt the need to go a little deeper. While over eighty percent of the young prospects have moved on, it has been five years since the ranking was published. Is it worrisome? Or does it reflect attrition through the prospect pool?
First to recap, here is what Ary listed as the results of the 2014 list in 2019:
21 players no longer with the team, 17 traded, 3 to free agency and 1 unsigned.
Now let us recap the 2015 list in 2019:
19 players no longer with the team, 14 traded, 3 to free agency, 1 waived, 1 unsigned.
Recapping the 2016 list in 2019:
15 players no longer with the team, 9 traded, 1 waived, 5 to free agency.
The 2017 list in 2019:
11 players no longer with the team, 7 traded, four lost to free agency.
Finally the 2018 list in 2019:
5 players no longer with the team, all traded.
Does this tell us anything? Yes. The average attrition rate for players in the Top 25 Under 25 is 4 players annually. 4 players a year is not particularly shocking, given many latter round picks are never signed and AHL level prospects are flipped with regularity. This is far from a comprehensive conclusion, but without a team by team comparison a fair one.
The one conclusion from this article I do find interesting is Pierre Dorion. Per Ary's article, under Brian Murray, player trades with minimal. Since Dorion took over, the preference has clearly been to trade assets for some level of return. Dorion also been rather aggressive in many aspects, trading the like Frances Perron, Gabriel Gagne and Johnathan Dahlen at very young ages. Based on past results, Sensfans can expect further trades in our prospect pool in the future.
The quality of those trades is an entirely separate article.