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DRAFT DAY: Expected Pick Range

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A guide to figuring out the reaches and steals of the 2019 NHL Draft.

2018 NHL Draft - Round One Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Happy draft day! Before it all begins this evening, I’d like to introduce “expected pick range”, something that I have been using throughout Silver Seven’s draft profiles series.

The goal is to identify pre-draft where we should roughly expect a player to be taken. So as the draft is happening we can have a rough idea of whether the pick was a reach, steal, or right in a comfortable range.

The basis I’m using for this is a list of consolidated rankings gathered from 60 different scouting sources. Afterwards, each placement is converted into draft values based on the research by Michael Schuckers. The average gives us one specific value, although a standard deviation on either end gives us a range of draft values. Once converted back into picks, then we’re left with a player’s “expected pick range”.

Below is a table of every player ranked by at least ten of the 60 sources, along with their expected pick range. If they’re taken before the “Lower” value, it means the pick was probably a reach (for example, if Ottawa takes Connor McMichael at pick #19). Picking a player after the “Upper” value would be considered a steal, so if Alex Newhook dropped to pick #19, it would be an incredible value pick. “Count” is just an indicator of how many sources ranked each prospect.

It’s not perfect, but I will certainly be referring back to it constantly. Here’s the link to the original spreadsheet, which also includes the list of sources as well as an additional 260 prospects that received less attention from the consolidated rankings.

2019 NHL Draft - Expected Pick Range

# Player Pos Lower Upper Count
# Player Pos Lower Upper Count
1 Jack Hughes C 1 1 60
2 Kaapo Kakko RW 2 2 60
3 Bowen Byram LD 3 5 60
4 Alex Turcotte C 3 6 59
5 Trevor Zegras C/W 4 10 60
6 Dylan Cozens C/RW 5 10 60
7 Kirby Dach C 6 10 60
8 Cole Caufield C/RW 6 12 59
9 Peyton Krebs LW/C 7 12 60
10 Vasili Podkolzin RW 6 14 60
11 Matthew Boldy LW 8 13 59
12 Alex Newhook C 8 16 60
13 Arthur Kaliyev LW 11 23 60
14 Victor Soderstrom RD 12 21 60
15 Philip Broberg LD 11 26 60
16 Cam York LD 13 21 59
17 Moritz Seider RD 13 27 60
18 Philip Tomasino C 14 28 59
19 Thomas Harley LD 15 28 60
20 Ville Heinola LD 16 27 59
21 Bobby Brink RW 15 29 57
22 Ryan Suzuki C 16 27 59
23 Raphael Lavoie C/RW 17 31 58
24 Pavel Dorofeyev LW/RW 16 36 55
25 Spencer Knight G 17 34 45
26 Jakob Pelletier LW 18 34 59
27 Nils Hoglander LW 20 32 56
28 Nicholas Robertson C/LW 21 37 57
29 Connor McMichael C 22 35 58
30 Samuel Poulin LW 22 41 59
31 Tobias Bjornfot LD 24 40 54
32 Matthew Robertson LD 22 44 52
33 Patrik Puistola LW 27 50 50
34 Egor Afanasyev LW 29 48 52
35 Brett Leason RW 30 53 49
36 Albin Grewe C/RW 30 64 49
37 Lassi Thomson RD 31 48 53
38 Anttoni Honka RD 29 77 52
39 Nathan Legare RW 29 76 47
40 Simon Holmstrom RW 30 78 49
41 Ryan Johnson LD 31 72 50
42 Robert Mastrosimone C/LW 32 70 48
43 John Beecher C 31 71 50
44 Jamieson Rees C 32 56 51
45 Brayden Tracey LW 32 69 50
46 Vladislav Kolyachonok LD 31 73 50
47 Samuel Fagemo LW/RW 31 76 45
48 Mikko Kokkonen LD 29 86 46
49 Ilya Nikolayev C/RW 32 74 43
50 Alex Vlasic LD 32 76 42
51 Nolan Foote LW 35 75 48
52 Kaedan Korczak RD 35 78 44
53 Maxim Cajkovic RW/LW 38 80 43
54 Yegor Spiridonov C/LW 40 79 38
55 Marshall Warren LD 37 85 38
56 Albert Johansson LD 36 87 30
57 Jordan Spence RD 34 93 40
58 Domenick Fensore LD 38 87 37
59 Michal Teply RW/LW 42 85 37
60 Shane Pinto RW 43 85 39
61 Pyotr Kochetkov G 45 82 20
62 Artemi Knyazev LD 43 87 40
63 Vladislav Firstov LW 47 82 34
64 Henry Thrun LD 44 86 39
65 Karl Henriksson C 44 87 39
66 Alex Beaucage RW/LW 36 93 41
67 Adam Beckman C 42 89 32
68 Daniil Misyul LD 44 88 31
69 Nikita Alexandrov C 44 90 33
70 Ethan Keppen LW 42 92 25
71 Jackson LaCombe LD 42 92 30
72 John Farinacci C 52 86 30
73 Zachary Jones LD 43 92 26
74 Mads Sogaard G 53 87 25
75 Drew Helleson RD 43 92 34
76 Antti Tuomisto RD 48 89 32
77 Matias Maccelli LW 45 91 27
78 Dustin Wolf G 39 97 17
79 Tuukka Tieksola RW 45 91 29
80 Billy Constantinou RD 46 91 27
81 Dmitri Sheshin LW 43 97 14
82 Semyon Chistyakov LD 43 96 23
83 Daniil Gutik LW 52 91 27
84 Antti Saarela LW/RW 53 93 29
85 Leevi Aaltonen LW 50 94 27
86 Mattias Norlinder LD 55 93 21
87 Dillon Hamaliuk LW 48 96 29
88 Jayden Struble LD 47 100 24
89 Ronnie Attard RD 46 103 21
90 Matvei Guskov C 55 99 23
91 Kirill Slepets RW 53 101 17
92 Graeme Clarke RW 70 96 27
93 Valentin Nussbaumer C/W 53 103 15
94 Henri Nikkanen C 56 100 22
95 Samuel Bolduc LD 57 99 29
96 Marcus Kallionkieli LW 70 99 20
97 Patrick Moynihan C 64 101 19
98 Michael Vukojevic LD 71 98 22
99 Hunter Jones G 55 107 15
100 Egor Serdyuk RW 56 107 20
101 Blake Murray C 64 107 21
102 Sasha Mutala RW 71 103 21
103 Justin Bergeron LD 73 103 14
104 Ben Brinkman LD 48 145 20
105 Alex Campbell C 69 114 25
106 Hugo Alnefelt G 74 106 15
107 Layton Ahac LD 55 137 23
108 Nikola Pasic C/LW 73 107 18
109 Ryder Donovan C 71 111 20
110 Nikita Okhotyuk LD 73 109 18
111 Mike Koster LD 71 113 16
112 Aaron Huglen RW 73 110 13
113 Mikhail Abramov RW/C 73 111 23
114 Oleg Zaitsev C 59 137 14
115 Reece Newkirk C 57 145 19
116 Harrison Blaisdell C 72 118 19
117 Alexei Protas C 73 114 20
118 Ethan Phillips RW 75 110 15
119 Arseni Gritsyuk LW 72 118 15
120 Simon Lundmark RD 76 109 16
121 Gianni Fairbrother LD 72 141 14
122 Rhett Pitlick LW 71 154 18
123 Xavier Simoneau C 71 151 18
124 Henry Rybinski LW 55 178 11
125 Jake Lee LD 72 154 16
126 Martin Hugo Has RD 75 131 22
127 Cole Moberg RD/RW 76 127 17
128 Michael Gildon LW 77 127 17
129 Isaiah Saville G 80 118 14
130 Case McCarthy RD 81 114 17
131 Judd Caulfield RW 80 137 15
132 Trevor Janicke RW 83 123 11
133 Keean Washkurak C 76 171 12
134 Cole Mackay RW 79 164 15
135 Kim Nousiainen LD 80 161 11
136 Colten Ellis G 81 164 13
137 Yaroslav Likhachyov RW 82 164 10
138 Massimo Rizzo C/LW 77 193 15
139 Trent Miner G 87 154 14
140 Vojtech Strondala C 86 169 12
141 Kristian Tanus C/W 87 169 10
142 Lucas Feuk C/W 84 184 12
143 Roman Bychkov LD 86 176 13
144 Owen Lindmark RW 87 178 11
145 Ilya Mironov LD 85 190 14
146 Luke Toporowski LW 92 148 15
147 Kalle Loponen RD 88 178 13
148 Albin Sundsvik C 89 180 12
149 Josh Nodler RW 91 174 14
150 Cole Schwindt RW 92 186 10
151 Nicholas Porco LW 92 197 12
152 Iivari Rasanen LD 95 197 11
153 Aku Raty RW 106 173 11
154 Grant Silianoff LW 99 199 11
155 Anthony Romano RW 125 184 10