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Game 60 Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

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We’re officially in the 60s!

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators
Skating’s hard, guys
Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

After earning a point against the newly lowly Blackhawks last night, the Senators look to drop another valuable two points tonight against the highly* Lightning. Those hoping to see Gabriel Dumont shortly after he was waived and claimed will have to wait — he’s been returned to Syracuse (and got a penalty in his first game back!) This also may be the last time Erik Karlsson plays against Tampa in his career, but we’ll just let those rumours rest for now.

*This is an incorrect use of the word highly, even though lowly was correct just before it. English is weird.

There has been no practice today, so we won’t know what happens until Guy Boucher’s 4:45 pm press conference. Likely Craig Anderson will get the start, with the lineup not changing. Here then are the predicted lines:

Hoffman - Duchene - Paajarvi
Smith - Brassard - Stone
Dzingel - Pageau - Gaborik
McCormick - Shore - Pyatt

Oduya - Karlsson
Borowiecki - Ceci
Claesson - Chabot

Anderson (starter)
Condon

Some thoughts:

  • Cody Ceci and Mark Borowiecki spent 10.5 minutes together last night, and got 55% of the 5v5 shot attempts. That number climbs to 78% on just pure shots on goal. For comparison, Ceci-Thomas Chabot got 44% of shot attempts (40% of shots on goal) at 5v5. Boro-Ceci is fine with me as a pairing with the ice time they’ve been getting. The problem is that Ceci’s gonna get $6M in the offseason and you can’t play a guy like that on your third pairing
  • Super interesting to me that Magnus Paajaarvi got a look last night on the top line (in the Marian Gaborik spot!). He’s been a shooting machine, so it’s probably fair to him to give him some time with some offensive linemates. If they’re showcasing him or auditioning him for next year, this is probably the way to do it. Give him a chance to show what he can do at the top of a lineup.
  • Mike Condon did his best Shannon Szabados impression last night, holding his team in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win, before just not quite being able to steal it in the shootout
  • Matt Duchene is up to 28 points in 45 games since “The Trade”. Kyle Turris is at 24 in 43. The Sens might have won something this year!
  • Karlsson trade rumours are everywhere. If this is likely to affect you, I recommend you avoid the internet and mute your TV during the game tonight.
  • Lightning is a nine-letter word with only two lonely “i”s as the vowels. Seriously, the combination of “ghtn” shouldn’t make an intelligible sound, but English gonna English

Some stats for each team (via NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.com):

Team Stats

Category Ottawa Senators Boston Bruins
Category Ottawa Senators Boston Bruins
-- Value Rank Value Rank
Goals/GP 2.68 25th 3.25 6th
Goals against/GP 3.44 30th 2.56 3rd
Shots/GP 30.7 24th 32.8 11th
Shots against/GP 33.0 25th 29.3 2nd
Powerplay % 16.7 26th 23.5 4th
Penalty Kill % 76.2 27th 83.3 4th
Corsi (5v5, Score & Venue Adjusted) 46.32 29th 53.97 2nd
Fenwick (5v5, SVA) 46.94 27th 54.01 1st

Player Stats

Ottawa Senators Boston Bruins
Ottawa Senators Boston Bruins
-- Player # Player #
Goals Matt Duchene 27 Brad Marchand 34
Assists Erik Karlsson (out) 53 Brad Marchand 51
Points Karlsson/Stone (both out) 62 Brad Marchand 85
Shots Mike Hoffman 253 David Pastrnak 236
TOI/GP Erik Karlsson (out) 26:44 Zdeno Chara 22:53