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Round 1, Game 4 preview: Ottawa Senators @ Boston Bruins

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A preview of the game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on 19 April 2017.

Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

The Ottawa Senators will look to take a stranglehold (no death threats intended to any members of the Ottawa media) of their first round series when they play game four tonight in Boston. Ottawa avoided disaster by winning in overtime after blowing a 3-0 lead, and it has to feel like the pressure is off a little bit tonight. Even if they lose, it is 2-2 and the Senators have home ice advantage. For the Bruins though, a defeat sends them into a 3-1 hole, which an NHL team has overturned only 28 times in 291 series.

The Senators will go with the exact same lineup as Monday while the Bruins will welcome Colin Miller back. Here are the likely lines and pairings for Ottawa.

Hoffman - Smith - Stone
Stålberg - Brassard - Ryan
Dzingel - Turris - Burrows
MacArthur - Pageau - Pyatt

Methot - Karlsson
Phaneuf - Ceci
Harpur - Wideman

Anderson (starter)
Condon

Here are the likely lines and pairings for Boston.

Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrňák
Stafford - Krejčí -  Backes
Schaller - Spooner - Vatrano
Moore - Nash - Acciari

Chára - McAvoy
Morrow - K. Miller
Liles - C. Miller

Rask (starter)
Khudobin

Some notes for tonight:

  • Erik Karlsson is getting a lot of deserved good press for his performance on Monday. But how good was Mike Hoffman though? Two amazing goals, plus a goal post and eight shots on net. Did you know I really like Mike Hoffman?
  • It's a good thing Bobby Ryan scored the overtime winner or that play for the 3-2 goal would have lived on for a while. Ryan leading the team in shots and four points in three games is certainly a big surprise for me.
  • Ottawa has won both games despite Craig Anderson. That has to be almost encouraging given that we can usually expect him to be much better.
  • The Senators have allowed a playoff low of 24.7 shots per game and also a playoff low of 23.7 shots per 60 minutes.
  • At 5-on-5 they have allowed 23.3 shots per 60 minutes, which is the second best in the playoffs.
  • At 5-on-5, the Sens are outshooting the opposition 38-19 and outchancing (by the Corsica definition) 10-2 when Erik Karlsson is on the ice. When Karlsson is off the ice, the Bruins hold the edge 39-26 in shots and 13-6 in scoring chances.
  • Karlsson has been on the ice for seven out of the nine goals Ottawa has scored this series.
  • Mark Stone had four shots on goal in game three. That was the most shots he has had since 18 February when he had five shots and five points against Toronto.
  • The Senators scored six consecutive goals in the series before Boston's 3-1 goal.
  • Ottawa has now beaten Boston six times out of seven games this season.

Here are some stats for the two teams tonight. All stats are from NHL.com except Corsi and Fenwick are from Corsica.

Category Ottawa Boston
Player # Player #
Goals Bobby Ryan 2 David Pastrňák 1
Assists Erik Karlsson 4 David Pastrňák 2
Points Bobby Ryan 4 David Pastrňák 3
Shots Bobby Ryan 12 Patrice Bergeron 9
Average Ice time Erik Karlsson 28:36 Zdeno Chára 28:16

Category

Ottawa Boston
# Rank # Rank
Goals For 3.00 4th 2.67 8th
Goals Against 2.67 8th 3.00 11th
Zone, score and venue adjusted Corsi % 50.96% 8th 49.04% 9th
Score, Zone and venue adjusted Fenwick % 52.39% 6th 47.61% 11th
Shots For 29.3 12th 24.7 16th
Shots Against 24.7 1st 29.3 5th