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Ottawa 67’s and Gatineau Olympiques Weekly Hockey Report – October 29th, 2014

Your weekly analytical review of the Ottawa 67's and Gatineau Olympiques

Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photo

The Ottawa 67's and the Gatineau Olympiques continue their regular seasons with the QMJHL already approaching close to 1/3 of their season over. Plenty of young players are standing out ahead of the NHL Entry Draft this upcoming summer and this week also saw a surprising offensive burst from the Ottawa 67's.

Ottawa 67's

The Ottawa 67's had a very taxing schedule this week with a rare back-to-back-to-back set of games over the weekend. Ottawa walked away with a total of 2 of the 6 available points and it was clear to see they were outplayed.  The 67's are currently ranked 4th in their division with 10 points in 12 games with a 5-7-0-0 record. Ottawa is ranked 7th in the conference, only one point behind Mississauga who has played 2 less games than them.

Friday's 5-2 Loss @ London

The script in this game is the same as most this week: the Ottawa 67's were outplayed by their opponent, and even with score effects helping them the 67's could not win. Against London they lost 5-2 with shots in favour of London 49-26. The two 67's goals came from Travis Barron and Sam Studnicka while assists were credited to Travis Konecny, Erik Bradford, Barron and Nathan Todd. Both goalies got time in net with Liam Herbst playing the first period and making 12 of 15 stops while Leo Lazarev played the final two periods making 32 of 34 saves.

Saturday's 6-1 Win @ Sarnia

The luck turned around for Ottawa in their Saturday's game. In the first period they were outplayed but managed to turn the momentum around in the second. In the third period Ottawa was able to score 4 goals on 6 shots to win the game 6-1 with shots in Sarnia's favour at 39-26. Ottawa goals were credited to Tyler Hill, Artur Tyanulin, Erik Bradford (2x), Brendan Bell and Dante Salituro. The goals were set up by Travis Konecny, Erik Bradford (2x - a 4 point night), Jacob Middleton (2x), Alex Lintiuniemi, Taylor Davis and Dante Salituro. Leo Lazarev played the entire game in net making 38 of 39 saves.

Sunday's 6-2 Loss @ Kitchener

Kitchener unsurprisingly outplayed an exhausted Ottawa team and was able to score 4 goals in the second period with a shooting-percentage of 33%. It is no surprise that the 67's lost 6-2 with shots in Kitchener's favour 38-25.    Goals from Ottawa came from Travis Konecny and Dante Salituro while assists are credited to Jonathan Duschene, Travis Konecny, Erik Bradford, and Alex Lintuniemi. The 67's tried to ride the hot goaltender with Leo Lazarev starting in net again but was pulled after two periods after making only 21 of 25 saves (Remember: never play goaltenders back to back, let alone back-to-back-to-back). Liam Herbst came in the third and made 11 of 12 saves.

Team Stats

Team Est. Fenwick Close GP SF SA GF GA SOW SOL Sh% Sv% PDO
North Bay Battalion 59.485% 11 393 266 40 31 1 0 9.949 88.346 98.295
Erie Otters 57.605% 12 443 346 71 34 1 1 15.837 90.435 106.272
Oshawa Generals 56.786% 14 473 369 61 35 0 0 12.896 90.515 103.411
Sarnia Sting 56.747% 12 461 370 40 48 0 1 8.677 87.263 95.94
Kitchener Rangers 55.678% 13 445 383 48 47 1 3 10.586 88.421 99.007
Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds 54.101% 13 491 421 62 38 0 0 12.627 90.974 103.601
Windsor Spitfires 52.289% 12 427 420 38 54 0 0 8.899 87.143 96.042
Kingston Frontenacs 51.471% 11 383 325 36 32 0 1 9.399 90.432 99.831
Guelph Storm 51.346% 12 389 365 34 40 0 1 8.74 89.286 98.026
Niagara IceDogs 51.215% 12 439 406 35 51 0 0 7.973 87.438 95.411
London Knights 49.829% 13 466 433 38 41 2 0 7.759 90.531 98.29
Owen Sound Attack 49.285% 14 470 481 56 44 2 2 11.538 91.232 102.77
Peterborough Petes 48.237% 11 402 423 37 51 0 2 9.204 88.361 97.565
Plymouth Whalers 46.168% 13 380 438 46 42 1 0 11.873 90.411 102.284
Saginaw Spirit 45.497% 13 442 507 43 52 1 0 9.524 89.744 99.268
Barrie Colts 45.255% 13 396 469 53 51 0 0 13.384 89.126 102.51
Mississauga Steelheads 45.217% 10 295 397 32 34 1 0 10.544 91.436 101.98
Belleville Bulls 45.078% 12 395 483 48 39 1 0 11.929 91.925 103.854
Ottawa 67's 42.054% 12 319 427 36 51 0 0 11.285 88.056 99.341
Sudbury Wolves 39.394% 13 359 539 24 63 0 0 6.685 88.312 94.997

With their play this week the Ottawa 67's continue to cement themselves as the second worst team in the OHL according to possession statistics. At 42% they are a good 5% better than Sudbury and are nipping at the heels of Belleville and Missisauga. The good news is the season is still young and the small sample of data can start to trend upwards which is what the team will want if they want to see the post-season.

Their PDO will need to see a shift; their goaltending is quite low while their shooting percentage is fairly high. Both of those statistics should see some regression towards the league median and it is their goaltending that could give the team the biggest boost.

All OHL Analytics from CHLStats.com

Player Stats

The biggest surprise in the early season has been draft-eligible Dante Salituro who is leading the team in points with 14 points (12 goals, 2 assist) in 12 games. We do not know if his shooting percentage is high as they OHL does not track those statistics but he is making himself noticed to teams scouts.

Travis Konecny is 3rd on the team in points which has been a slow start to the year for him. He was able to sustain over 1.0 PPG as a 16-year-old so it would be wise to keep watching him. Right now he is at 0.75 PPG with 9 points (2 goals, 7 assists) in 12 games.

Erik Bradford continues to be in the offensive lead with the team as well as young 16-year-old Travis Barron. Barron is 4th on the team in points with 8 points in 12 games but leads the team in relative Even-Strength Goal-For%.

The goaltenders have not had the greatest start on the year. Liam Herbst has played in 8 games and over 389 minutes. He has made 174 saves good for a .883 Sv% which is higher than his career .866 Sv%.  He has only seen 456 shots in his OHL career so we have no idea what his true talent level is. Rookie Leo Lazarev has faced 228 shots in 330 minutes for a .886 Sv%. Their underlying fancystats are not that positive so far this year. For Herbst, in 7 starts he has a 43% Quality-Start Rate, a 28.6% Really-Bad Start Rate and a 28.6% Bail-Out Rate. In 5 starts for Lazarev he has a 40% Quality-Start and Really-Bad Start rate.

Schedule

The Ottawa 67's have three games on the schedule this week with more rest this time. On Thursday the 67's will face Niagara at home, then on Saturday the 67's will be in Erie and then to Guelph on Sunday for an early afternoon game.

Gatineau Olympiques

The Gatineau Olympiques had an exhausting schedule this week with another back-to-back-to-back set of games with travel between games. Despite the schedule working against them, Gatineau was able to walk away with 3 of the 6 possible points.

Gatineau is second in their division with 20 points and an 8-7-0-4 record in 19 games. They are 4 points behind first place (but have played two more games). League-wide Gatineau has dropped down to sixth, two points ahead of seventh.

Friday's 9-6 Loss vs. Halifax

The week started off with an all-out slug-fest for Gatineau where both teams had some terrible goaltending.  Despite being dominated by Halifax (the Mooseheads outshot Gatineau 47-26), the final score was much closer at 9-6 in favour of Halifax. Alexandre Carrier, Louick Marcotte, Alex Dostie, Phil Pietroniro, Vaclav Karabek and Yakov Trenin scored goals for Gatineau.  Assists were credited to Elie Bérubé, Louick Marcotte, Alex Dostie, Phil Pietoniro, Vaclav Karabek, Jonathan Bourcier, Yakov Trenin (3x), Alexis Pepin, and Alexandre Alain (2x). Both goalies played in this game with Anthony Brodeur starting and playing most of the first period making 10 saves on 15 shots. Nicolas Lachance played the remainder of the game making 28 saves on 32 shots. The power play went 2-for-5 as did the penalty kill.

Saturday's 4-3 SO Loss @ Shawinigan

On Saturday a fatigued and travel-worn Gatineau was outplayed by Shawinigan but great play from a mainly rested Anthony Brodeur kept them in the game and got them to the shootout where they were able to eek out 1 point. The final score was 4-3 with shots in favour of Shawinigan 35-26. William Blackburn, Alexandre Carrier and Alexandre Alain scored goals for Gatineau. Louick Marcotte, Phil Pietroniro, Joey Richard, Andrew Abou-Assaly, and Alexandre Alain were credited with setting up the goals. Brodeur made 32 of 35 saves in net and 3 of 5 saves in the shootout while Karabek was the only Gatineau scorer able to get one past the tender in the SO. The power play went 1 for 5 while the penalty kill went 5 for 7.

Sunday's 6-4 Win vs Sherbrooke

With a 4 hour bus ride and a game the next afternoon, Gatineau came home and were able to outplay Sherbrooke to earn an outright win, the first of the week. Gatineau dominated play and won the game 6-4 with shots in their favour 29-24. Goals were scored by Fraser Turner, Alexandre Carrier, Louick Marcotte, Joey Richard, Alexis Pepin, and Andrew Abou-Assaly. The assists were credited to Alexandre Carrier (2x), Louick Marcotte (2x), Alex Dostie, Phil Pietroniro, Vaclav Karabacek, Andrew Abou-Asslay, Alexis Pépin and Alexandre Alain. Anthony Brodeur played again, for the full game, making 20 saves on 24 shots. The power play went 3 for 9 while the penalty kill was good for 50% over 4 attempts.

Team Stats

Team Est. Fenwick Close GP SF SA GF GA SOW SOL Sh% Sv% PDO
Rimouski 56.857% 18 629 454 72 57 1 1 11.306 87.638 98.944
Drummondville 56.207% 15 480 407 46 40 0 2 9.583 90.617 100.2
Blainville-Boisbriand 54.116% 16 439 423 51 46 0 2 11.617 89.549 101.166
Moncton 53.748% 16 499 460 60 57 2 0 11.67 87.609 99.279
Sherbrooke 53.233% 17 567 483 72 55 3 0 12.234 88.613 100.847
Saint John 52.119% 15 485 477 62 47 1 3 12.603 90.717 103.32
Acadie-Bathurst 51.501% 16 516 453 47 62 1 0 8.932 86.313 95.245
Shawinigan 51.359% 18 554 558 57 55 1 1 10.127 90.305 100.432
Cape Breton 50.0% 17 532 534 65 61 0 1 12.218 88.743 100.961
Rouyn-Noranda 50.0% 16 455 422 53 40 1 0 11.454 90.521 101.975
Chicoutimi 49.507% 16 481 485 44 61 2 0 8.768 87.423 96.191
Halifax 48.686% 16 487 506 42 70 0 1 8.624 86.337 94.961
Baie-Comeau 48.198% 17 509 554 61 53 4 1 11.287 90.597 101.884
Val-d'Or 46.26% 17 502 550 51 74 2 1 9.8 86.703 96.503
Victoriaville 45.899% 15 431 512 55 47 0 2 12.761 91.176 103.937
Gatineau 45.794% 19 523 587 69 74 0 4 13.193 87.993 101.186
Québec 45.396% 16 431 567 58 53 1 0 13.256 90.653 103.909
Charlottetown 42.62% 16 462 550 47 60 1 1 9.978 89.253 99.231

This week has really hurt Gatineau's possession numbers as they have fallen from the middle of the pack to third last. This goes to show the impact of the smaller sample size of the season so far. These numbers need to continue to see how they are trending to predict how they season will go. The halfway point of the season is the sweet spot as we have enough data to predict the season outcome and the team still has time to correct their course.

Another concern is that their their PDO is a bit high but it is a similar situation to Ottawa. Their shooting percentage is over 13% while their save percentage is below .879. As with Ottawa it would be expected that their shooting percentage would decrease while their sv% increases but as of right now it's not impacting their ability to win.

gatineau rolling fenwick - oct 28

When we analyzing their rolling trend we can see their has been a sharp decrease in play. A large part of this I would hypothesize can be attributed to the schedule not working in their favour. Gatineau has played the most games of all teams so far and in such a short time. The schedule should start to work in their favour as they will have to play fewer games and have more recovery time.

All QMJHL Analytics from CHLStats.com

Player Stats

Despite the low rankings from the pre-season Central Scouting Service ranking of prospects, Gatineau boasts some good bets for the upcoming draft. Yakov Trenin is second on the team in PPG with 1.26 thanks to 24 points (6 goals, 19 assists) in 19 games. Nearly every analysis we have on QMJHL players, Trenin is at the top or leading the team. Right behind him are the two Alexandres: Alain and Carrier; the two of them have scored 19 points in 19 games for Carrier (a defencemen) and 14 points in 15 games for Alain.

More analytics can be found at CHLStats.com

Anthony Brodeur has faced 411 shots against this season in over 700 minutes. So far his efforts have earned him a .886, which is lower than his career Sv% of .887, and he is posting a 3.44 GAA. Nicholas Lachance has a lower workload playing only 410 minutes this seasons and as a result he has a slightly higher Sv% of .893 and a 3.22 GAA. With goalie analytics Brodeur has a 41.67% Quality-Start rate, a 25.0% Really-Bad Start and 0 Bail outs, all in 12 starts. Lachance who has started half as many games has posted a 50% QS rate, 16.67% RBS and 0 Bail-outs.  While small sample sizes can wreck havoc on our numbers it seems like Lachance has been the better goalie so far and one bad start seems to throw off his season Sv%.

Schedule

Gatineau has a lighter load this week with only two games on the road. On Saturday Gatineau faces Rouyn-Noranda and then on Sunday they face Val-d'Or.