If you've noticed that a lot of Ottawa Senators games have been running long this season, there's a good reason for that: the Senators currently lead the league in overtime appearances with 13. In that time, they've actually compiled a very respectable overtime/shootout record, with 8 wins and 5 losses in extra time (including a 4-2 record in the shoot out).

Fans should be happy that the Senators are pushing games to OT at all, given that they are often trailing in the game before pushing it to extra time: as of January 5th, the Senators had led after the first period just 9 times this season. They had trailed after the first period 18 times. Fans should probably also be content with the Senators' rather impressive record in extra time -- they're third in OT wins, just after New Jersey and Colorado who have ridiculous 10-2 and 10-1 records, respectively.

Yet every time the Senators allow a game to go into overtime, they're giving up ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

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Baffling. Undeniably so. Rationalize this any way you want this is just strange. He could be a player but, Lord….I’m waiting for the the other shoe to drop.

This quote sums up the reaction of most Senators fans to the 2010 draft day trade that saw David Rundblad join the organization. And it was undeniably baffling -- the team had drafted Erik Karlsson, Patrick Wiercioch, and Jared Cowen in the early rounds for the past two years. Meanwhile, fans were still reeling from the dramatic fallout due to Dany Heatley's trade demands.

Offense, not defense, was needed. Rundblad represented a luxury pick at a position where the team already had depth. There were legitimate questions about just where he fit in the team's plans.

Then Rundblad went out and put up 50 points (11G, 39A) in 55 games for his Swedish team, Skellefteå AIK of the Elitserien. That number was the second-most for a defenseman in the Elitserien ever, and earned him the Salming Trophy -- the Elitserien's equivalent of the Norris Trophy. Rundblad had instantly become Ottawa's best prospect.

It is largely on the strength of that season (his previous best, 13 points, had been achieved just the year before) that Sens fans are now dismayed at his early departure. But what did that season really tell us about Rundblad's potential? Was it an indication of an emerging superstar or a portent of future filled with unrealized expectations?

Just who set the record for points by a defenseman in the Elitserien, anyway?

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Time for an informal poll: raise your hand if you knew that Milan Michalek would be outscoring Dany Heatley three seasons later.

Since none of you has the power to know the future, I'm going to assume that no hands were raised. But it brings up an interesting question: Just how far down the road should a NHL General Manager plan for? One year? Three years? Five years?

Sure, it's easy to say, "In five years, we want to have a top flight winger and at least one top goalie prospect," but there's no way of knowing for sure that the players you pick are going to pan out into those projected roles. That's part of the beauty of sports--everything is left to chance at the end of the day. Sure, you can hedge your bets by having good scouting and good coaching and good training staff and all of the other little things that go into taking a player's raw talent and actually developing them into what you hope they can be, but you never truly have control over how they turn out.

So what's a GM to do? Throw darts and hope for the best because it's all just luck anyway?

That sort of fatalistic approach probably wouldn't keep you your job for too long, so it's no surprise that there's a specific pattern to most GMs' approach to building a team. We see it most clearly around the trade deadline, but also during the first few days of free agency, and even sometimes during the draft:

Have a long-term plan, but worry about the immediate future first, and sort out next year... next year.

Given the transient nature of professional sports, this is a pretty rational approach. Do you think the Boston Bruins traded for Mark Recchi so they could lose to the Carolina Hurricanes in seven games? That clearly wasn't the plan, yet that's how it turned out. That's how it turns out for every GM who makes a move during the year. When the season is over, there are 29 GMs who made moves that didn't win them a Stanley Cup, and one who did--and that doesn't deter the others in the least for making moves for the immediate future of their team. What else are they supposed to do? Try to pretend they know what their team will look like three years into the future? Some of them won't even have jobs!

What does this have to do with Brian Lee?

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Senators GM Bryan Murray swung for the fences today, acquiring center Kyle Turris from the Phoenix Coyotes in exchange for defenseman David Rundblad and a 2012 second round pick. There's a lot happening in this trade, so we're going to break this down FAQ-style. For those wondering, I was a Phoenix resident until late last year, so my opinion is going to be based on what I saw.

Who is Kyle Turris?

Kyle Turris

#91 / Center / Phoenix Coyotes

Height: 6-1

Weight: 185

Born: Aug 14, 1989

Turris was the third overall pick of the 2007 draft, selected only behind Patrick Kane, now of the Chicago Blackhawks, and James van Riemsdyk, now of the Philadelphia Flyers. NHL Central Scouting had Turris ranked as the top North American skater that year, above both Kane and van Riemsdyk. The Coyotes were ecstatic when they drafted him -- they envisioned him as their primary building block. At one time, they were rumored to be trying to move up to first overall to ensure they could get him. Then-head coach Wayne Gretzky was reportedly enamored with his speed and skill.

After being drafted, Turris returned to the Wisconsin Badgers and put up 35 points (11G, 24A) in 36 games. In 2008-09, he put up seven points (4G, 3A) in eight games for the San Antonio Rampage, Phoenix's AHL team, before playing 63 games for the Coyotes. He only managed 20 points (8G, 12A) in those games, playing mostly situationally as a rookie.

2009-10 saw him spend more time in the AHL developing, as the big club rode the outstanding play of Ilya Bryzgalov and highly structured system of new head coach Dave Tippet to a playoff berth.

This is where things get dodgy. Tippet was brought in to bring structure to a team in desperate need of it. He is an extremely astute coach who demands adherence to a defensive plan in the mold of Ken Hitchcock and Jacques Martin. Turris' freewheeling. up-ice play did not resonate well with that style.

Still, he was able to make the team last season, and put up just 25 points (11G, 14A) in 65 games, largely relegated to a fourth-line role by the structure-minded Tippet. The team made the playoffs that year, and drew the Detroit Red Wings as their opponents. The structure broke down and saw the Coyotes play a more offensive style to match their opponents in a great seven-game series that saw Detroit score 26 goals while the Coyotes scored 18. Turris played in four of those games and recorded a goal and two assists.

He then held out, got the contract he wanted, and got traded to Ottawa.

Bottom line: There is a ton of potential talent in him; he needs the right coach to bring it out.

(read on for so much more...)

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As coverage of Nikita Filatov's possible flight back to Russia has reached fever pitch, it's a perfect time to compare Filatov's time in the Senators organization with that of another young Sen, Kaspars Daugavins.

Daugavins had an option to head to the KHL this offseason and play for his hometown team, Dinamo Riga. And really, if he chose to exercise that option, it would be hard to blame him. He was drafted by the Ottawa Senators in 2006, and never left North America. He put in time in the OHL and the AHL, and what kind of a shot did he receive in Ottawa from the time he was drafted until the end of last year's Calder Cup winning season?

One game.

Daugavins played his only NHL game to that point during the 2009-10 season, getting 8 minutes of ice-time and being sent back to Binghamton unceremoniously shortly thereafter. Even during Ottawa's disaster 2010-2011 season, when Senators fans saw almost the entire Binghamton Senators forward corps see NHL action (Colin Greening, Bobby Butler, Erik Condra, Corey Locke, Ryan Potulny, Jim O'Brien, Cody Bass, Roman Wick, and Francis Lessard), Daugavins was not called up once.

As I said, if he decided to return to Riga after not getting a sniff of NHL action last season, it would be hard to hold it against him.

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The 2008 NHL Entry Draft will always be best remembered for Bryan Murray's "garbage pick" at 15th overall. However, a couple of rounds later, he made another pick that is panning out better than anyone could have expected: Zack Smith. Smith was selected in the third round, 79th overall during the 2008 Draft, and has proven to be a very shrewd pick by Murray. One has to remember that Smith was already in his third draft eligible year by 2008, and a full two years older than Erik Karlsson was during the 2008 Draft. It's usually hard to get excited about picking an overage grinder, but given the results Smith has already produced, one can't help but be impressed.

Since breaking out in the WHL, the man known around these parts as Z. Smith has done nothing but exceed all expectations. Would you expect someone to play in the AHL Calder Cup playoffs before being drafted? No, but Z. Smith did for the Manitoba Moose anyways, without any previous pro hockey experience. Would you expect his first NHL goal to be a short-handed snipe that beat one of the best goalies in the world? No, but that's how he did it. Would you expect someone selected in the third round to play in the NHL playoffs just two years later? Probably not, but Z. Smith did anyway, playing in all 6 of Ottawa's playoff games in 2010. Last year, he played 100 games between the AHL and NHL, and was third in points on the Calder Cup winning Binghamton Senators.

Yeah, not bad for an overage kid picked in the third round. And the best part? He just keeps getting better.

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The Ottawa Senators decided forward Mika Zibanejad wasn't quite ready for the NHL, sending him back to Djurgårdens IF of the Swedish Elite League for the 2011-12 season. There's not much shame in this--few 18-year-olds are ready to play in the NHL. Jason Spezza wasn't, and he certainly turned out all right.

With the great Zibanejad decision made, there's no point in continuing to second-guess it. Right or wrong, he's no longer available to the Senators this year. Whether this move was best for his development remains to be seen, and further speculation won't do us any good. All we can do now is hope he focuses on the things he needs to improve on and returns next year as a complete NHL player. Given what we saw from him this year, that shouldn't be a major concern for Sens fans.

However, Zibanejad's departure creates new, interesting questions. What was the team's most heated position battle in preseason suddenly appears to have resolved itself with crystal clarity. Let's take a look at what that may mean for the team.

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For many years, the Senators were called a one-line team, as it seemed only the top-line could consistently put pucks in the net. Although it's early in the season, it's looking like that label may still be applicable. Here's a look at the Senators' goal scorers through eight games:

Obviously, Michalek and Spezza are in a league of their own for points amongst Senators' forwards with 43% of the goals scored. Add in Daniel Alfredsson (who is not normally a part of the top line, but is the third in points among forwards), and you have 57% of the Senators' goals. As a pie-chart, it's something like this:

It's not as dire as some other teams (the Leafs' top three have 65% of their goals, for example), but it's certainly worrisome. What makes this even more worrisome? Michalek and Spezza simply can't continue to score like this.

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