Silver Seven: FanPosts

Off-season Options Pt 1

2013-06-17T12:29:51Z

May 24, the horn sounds. The Ottawa Senators' season is ended at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins. For some, interest in hockey wanes pretty quickly. Without our Sens, hockey is only given a cursory glance at best. Some still follow ardently, picking another team to cheer for as Lord Stanley's cup is presented in June. Beat writers and journalists start the rumours and guesswork almost immediately. They chase stories, follow leads, trying to turn hearsay into some sound bite that could be construed as news-worthy.

But what about us, the fans? Sure, we can spend the next month or so speculating, waxing lyrical about some player or other that could/should be a trade target. But what about the games? What about something to get our blood pumping and the thrill of seeing our team win or having us whimper softly as they lose? The football season has ended (World Cup qualifiers/ Confederations Cup notwithstanding), the American football season ended long ago (for those that like that sort of thing), and even the curlers have packed their brooms and shiny stones away for the summer.

So, friends, I have been thinking long and hard how to help my North American brethren during the next few weeks or months. In what way can I assist in the passing of time until the draft? Until the free agent frenzy? Until the spring, and training camp rolls in and we get a look at our beloved Sens and ponder what might be in the coming season? How else could I help but to NOT turn a blind eye to the sporting landscape about me? After all, it has been said that ice hockey would be Australia's favourite sport, were it not for the fact that we don't get any (or enough) snow. We do have ice hockey, true. But it's a very narrow niche. Very difficult to find if you do not know what you are looking for. What do we have to offer that could slake our thirst for contact sport? Well, we have a few options. This (may) be a two-part post where I can share some of my limited knowledge about some Aussie sports that may help you through till training camp.

National Rugby League (NRL)

Don't get this confused with rugby union, its closely related cousin. Rather than piling on the man with the ball, like in rugby, league allows the player tackled to get up and play the ball to his team mate, who then finds another way to get smashed by someone else. After five tackles, they have a kick and the other team then gets a turn. Score by crossing the line and placing some part of the ball on the ground (much like a touchdown but the ball has to be grounded by the attacker).

WHO IS GOOD:

Melbourne Storm

Perennial finalists and premiership favourites. They boast a number of representative players and a great coach in Craig Bellamy. These guys are so good that in 2010, when they lost ALL of their competition points for a breach in the salary cap, they still kicked everyone's arse and would have finished fifth. Good enough to make the playoffs. They also have a Minecraft-looking guy on their logo. So there's that, too.

WHO TO SUPPORT:

South Sydney Rabbitohs

FYI a ‘rabbitoh' is colloquially someone that catches, skins and sells rabbits. Any team that has an owner like Russell Crowe has to have some star players, right? Nope, not Souths. They have just one: Greg Inglis. And he's more than enough. A former Melbourne player that was considered surplus in the aforementioned salary cap crisis, Inglis signed a healthy contract with Souths and has not played a bad game since. If you a supporter, you may just catch Russell Crowe at every home game. But, thankfully, he never grabs the microphone for a song.

WHO TO HATE:

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles are kind of like the Maple Leafs; a strange sense of entitlement mixed with a healthy dose of dirty players and sore losership (sic). They differ from Toronto in the fact that when they stop whining and complaining about things not going their way, they can actually play some good footy. Won the premiership in 2008 and 2011.

Highlights can be found for each game on the official website at nrl.com. Be sure to check it out on the weekends. There are no midweek games; they are all played Friday through Monday night.

What about your team, Mr AussieSensFan? Who do you support? My team is the Brisbane Broncos, and we're not going so well this year. We lost our Daniel Alfredsson, Darren Lockyer, last year and have struggled mightily ever since.

If you are thinking of getting into the NRL, the next month or so should be exciting as the State of Origin series is currently underway. Queensland versus New South Wales. State versus state. Mate against Mate. Queensland have won the series for the last seven (!) years in a row. NSW have won the first game this year but the next game is coming up next week, Wednesday, June 26.

EVIDENCE OF AWESOMENESS:

The guys in yellow are the Brisbane Broncos. I never realised they get pummeled so often until I watched this a couple of times.

National Rugby League (NRL)

WHO IS GOOD:

Melbourne Storm

WHO TO SUPPORT:

South Sydney Rabbitohs

WHO TO HATE:

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Highlights can be found for each game on the official website at nrl.com. Be sure to check it out on the weekends. There are no midweek games; they are all played Friday through Monday night.

EVIDENCE OF AWESOMENESS:

The guys in yellow are the Brisbane Broncos. I never realised they get pummeled so often until I watched this a couple of times.

New Division: Good or Bad for Ottawa.

2013-06-15T23:17:39Z

As I write another fan post out of boredom, I decided to analyze how Ottawa's playoff chances are affected by the new alignment. The Top 3 teams for each division will qualify and 2 other teams will Wild Card based on points.

To start off, this year's final standings in points for the C Division.

Montreal: 63

Boston: 62

Toronto: 57

Detroit 56

Ottawa: 56 (but 1 less ROW than Detroit)

Buffalo: 48

Tampa: 40

Florida: 36

Right off the bat the point totals suggest an extremely tight and difficult division heading into next year. However based on this years totals, both Ottawa and Detroit would still make the playoffs by virtue of the wild card (and Ottawa would have ended up playing the Pens if the playoff setup was for this year). However there are various factors which will also effect how this translates to next year.

1.Factors really unlikely to be repeated for next season

Detriot, Ottawa and Florida (No.1, 2 and 4 respectively in man games lost) are not all going to have so many injuries. Toronto is not going to compete regularly giving the opponents 10-20 more shots. Of the 8 teams in the division, only the play of Montreal and Boston raise no flags into translating the success into next year.

2. Beating up on the former South-least division.

Statistically we ended up with the weakest teams from the dissolved division. Florida is likely a year or two away from really pushing for a spot and Tampa could not make the playoffs despite being fourth in scoring in the Eastern Conference (only 1 goal behind Washington and Montreal). Both teams have had recent goaltending woes, with Tampa hoping Bishop can continue his play from Ottawa.

3. Goaltending looks largely to be a wash for the playoff teams.

Reimer/Rask/Anderson/Howard and pre-April Price give each of the playoff teams a strong net presence. If Price falters early next year, Montreal will be at a severe disadvantage.

4. As of now, Ottawa easily has the most improved team of the division.

7 points separated Ottawa from first place. But only 2 points separated 5th and 3rd. Given Ottawa had its offence gutted and lost 17 of its 23 losses by 1 goal (15 of the 23) or shutout (1-0 1-0 4-0 3-0), they are likely due for an improvement based entirely on an injection of offence. Detroit was injured but had its stars healthy, they are trending down. Montreal began running into trouble very quickly once injuries hit. Toronto and Montreal had everything going right offensively. 8 of their nine season starting forwards played 40 or more games, with Ottawa having only 5 of their starting nine playing 40 or more.

5. Division D does not look to get any better then it was this year.

Pittsburgh will do well, of that we can all agree....after that it is a crapshoot. Washington feasted on a terrible division, it will not have that luxury. Carolina, Philadelphia and New Jersey all have major questions marks heading into next year. Columbus appears to be trending up, but will rely heavily on goaltending to have a chance. The Rangers will live and die on King Henrik and god knows how the Islanders will do next year. It is very possible 5th place in Division C will once again be better than the bottom five of division D.

Looking over the issues, the new division setup doesn't particularly hurt Ottawa's chances. Ottawa was competitive despite its shortcomings, well 2 of the teams in front of them (Montreal/Toronto) faced little adversity as a team during the year with Montreal coming off the rails once the injuries began to mount. Buffalo/Florida are unlikely to do any damage next year, well Tampa must improve its team defence to contend. Detroit is an unknown, they are the model franchise and well not contenders, are expected to be in the mix. Of the division only Boston has no issues. The only benefit (as of now) is the setup of division D. It currently has only 1 sure thing, followed by 7 teams which scare no one. Mediocrity will not be tolerated under the new system and only the Islanders appear to be trending up going into next year.

To start off, this year's final standings in points for the C Division.

Montreal: 63

Boston: 62

Toronto: 57

Detroit 56

Ottawa: 56 (but 1 less ROW than Detroit)

Buffalo: 48

Tampa: 40

Florida: 36

1.Factors really unlikely to be repeated for next season

2. Beating up on the former South-least division.

3. Goaltending looks largely to be a wash for the playoff teams.

Reimer/Rask/Anderson/Howard and pre-April Price give each of the playoff teams a strong net presence. If Price falters early next year, Montreal will be at a severe disadvantage.

4. As of now, Ottawa easily has the most improved team of the division.

5. Division D does not look to get any better then it was this year.

Training Camp Questions (Of The Absurdly Early To Discuss Variety)

2013-06-14T00:34:18Z

Injuries aside, this has been a very good year for the Ottawa Senators development wise. A set of strong rookie campaigns were made by players like Jakob, Zjad, Weircioch Gryba, Lehner and Benoit (technically, I love the guy, but he is in his late 20's). These rookies were further supported by solid sophomore years from Greening, Condra, Smith (technically third but only 2nd full season) and a very strong season from what became the best trade of last summer, Mark Methot. Late season inserts in the case of Conacher and Pageau further enhanced the young wave of development.

However with the good came the bad development wise. Regin and JOB appear to be done with this team going forward. Da Costa once again proved he has the hands, but perhaps not the body or work ethic needed to be a full-time NHLer. David (Dizzy) D. and Mike Hoffman ran into unfortunate injuries which derailed there seasons. Oh and Louis Caporusso sucks.

What makes interesting is how this youth movement will affect the team in September.

So Questions heading in:

1) Will the team be Healthy?

Karlsson/Cowen/Spezza, their health will matter to the success of the team for the start of next season. If for any reason management feels its in trouble here, especially on defence, expect a signing in the summer, even if its only a veteran stopgap. I really doubt the Sens brass want to test there luck with Boro/Gryba/Weircioch all at once. The health of Hoffman will also affectanother question mark for next year on the left side.

2) Who will make up the left side?

As of now only Greening is a lock on the left side for start of the year. (Kassian will be moved in and out of the lineup regardless, so I doubt count him). Assuming Conacher does not have a disastrous camp, he too is likely to cement a spot, he has proven his scoring ability in the NHL. Jakub flipped wings because of injuries, but is a natural right winger and given this year will almost surely be Alfie's last (assuming he plays at all) expect him to start on the right in September.

So that leaves open two spots. The Murrays have strongly voiced there opinion that Hoffman is a NHL winger when healthy and I fully expect he will be given a chance to grab one of the two spots open. Importantly there WILL BE competition, Matt Puempel will very likely be given a shot in camp, as will Dizzy, Shane Prince and Cole Schneider(the latter three having strong AHL campaigns this past year), but each will require strong camps to have a chance at making the team.

A final quirk to this left side dilemma is the potential for Zibenajad to be moved to the wing as Ottawa will (presumably) have a strong lineup done the middle that would play ahead of Zjad at center.

3) Defence

Karlsson/Phillips/Cowen/Methot will start the year. Gryba/Weircioch (Perhaps Benoit) have the inside track for the open spots, followed by Borocop and then Ceci. This really will be a question of how well each player does in camp as well as potential signings, there will be a battle on D.

4) Goaltending

For the first time in a long time, there will be no questions for this.

5) The Right Side.

The players aren't really in doubt Condra/Neil/Jakub/Michalek (health willing) and Alfie (if he wants it). The only young player who could make the right side out of camp is potentially Noesen, but health (both physical and mental) will decide who forms this wing.

6) Center

Spezza/Turris is a lock for 1C/2C and Smith is heavily favoured for a spot on 3/4C. Assuming a decent to strong camp, Pageau will likely be given the insight shot at 3/4C. The major question will be how Zjad is used in relation to center or left wing depending on how Pageau plays.

7) Free Agent/Trade signings

Murray has openly noted his goal for the summer to sign a scoring winger.....will see how that goes :P

Year Two of the Senate Reform had a set of violent waves altering the roster, Year Three is set to make some as well, though of a far less unexpected variety.

What makes interesting is how this youth movement will affect the team in September.

So Questions heading in:

1) Will the team be Healthy?

2) Who will make up the left side?

3) Defence

4) Goaltending

For the first time in a long time, there will be no questions for this.

5) The Right Side.

6) Center

7) Free Agent/Trade signings

Murray has openly noted his goal for the summer to sign a scoring winger.....will see how that goes :P

Year Two of the Senate Reform had a set of violent waves altering the roster, Year Three is set to make some as well, though of a far less unexpected variety.

Is it time for the Sens to trade a centre?

2013-06-13T12:51:47Z

Hey everyone, I'm happy to now be a part of the Silver Seven crew- I'm a long time lurker, but this is my first Fanpost! It's refreshing to be part of a site where real dialogue can occur (with of course the odd sarcastic or playful jab), and not just another site where "The Sens suck!! Go Leafs Go!!" or "Alfie rulez!! Come back plz!!" comments abound (*cough* TSN *cough*).

The Sens' success this year, despite all the injuries that occurred over the course of the season, has provided an indication that the team is further along in its rebuild process than expected. However, with the season now over and lots of time to analyze the team to death before the draft, I've developed a couple of my own opinions about how Bryan Murray may want to proceed!

Despite the Sens' success, there was one major gap the team had this year that was obvious not just to Sens fans, but anyone who watches hockey: Scoring goals.

Now injuries obviously had an impact, as Karlsson, Spezza, and Michalek usually drive the offence. However, even before all the injuries, I felt that Ottawa has been missing a bona fide goal scorer playing with Spezza since the "pizza line" was at its peak. Thankfully, after leaving Ottawa on selfish terms, karma seems to have bit 'ol Heatley in the @$& and he is no longer in that category himself, but Michalek is not quite there.

While Michalek has been good, I feel his stats have been inflated by Spezza and it's unrealistic to rely on him given how often he’s been out with injuries over the past couple of years. Therefore the Sens need someone who will both score 30+ goals per year on the wing AND will be around most of the season.

While the young guns filled in admirably, they are still unproven in a full NHL season, and I feel it would be unreasonable to ask or expect 30 goals from them next year (referring to Turris, Conacher, Silfverberg, Zibanejad, and Pageau, in particular, who got significant ice time- Stone didn't play much so I'm leaving him out of this discussion for now, but he's also unproven). The indications to me so far are that they are likely well rounded, 20-30 goal per year players, not players that will go on incredible scoring tears, leaving unsuspecting goalies looking like Marc-Andre Fleury.

Unfortunately, proven goal scorers are difficult to acquire, because no team wants to give one up, unless there are major salary cap problems, team chemistry issues, or a team is entering a “rebuild” phase and looking for prospects/picks. So, in order to convince another team to trade one, Ottawa needs to offer a pretty sweet deal, which means letting one (or more) of these guys go, likely along with a draft pick of some sort. The question, then, is: who should it be?

Last year, Ben Bishop showed a ton of potential as a starting goaltender. However, with Robin Lehner being groomed for the past few years as the goaltender of the future, and Anderson playing Vezina-caliber hockey in the present, it just made sense to move Bishop to address the need for more scoring. I believe the organization is in the same situation with the centre position at the moment! While depth at centre is something every team wishes they had, when your team needs a proven first line winger and you have a position filled with one too many good young players, wouldn’t it make sense to trade one of them to address this problem?

Kyle Turris did an admirable job picking up some of the slack this year, getting 29 points in 48 games. With Spezza back in the fold, he returns to being the team’s second line centre, and has shown he still has some upside. This is where I feel things get interesting, but I’ll get to that shortly.

Zack Smith and Chris Neil form the core of the third line, which I don’t feel should be messed with, as these guys focus on rattling opposing forwards rather than scoring. This leaves only the fourth line to fill at centre.

In the playoffs, Jean-Gabriel Pageau came in and filled this position with flair, having both success and chemistry on the fourth line with Colin Greening. He scored a hat trick in the playoffs and has his own crowd chant now thanks to this (a hilarious one, at that). As a small player, he gets more time and space on the fourth line, not having to play top pair d-men. Seeing as he was a late round pick and does not have high expectations attached to him, this seems like a perfect fit.

Now here’s the issue- Mika Zibanejad also showed this year that he is ready for the big league and deserving of a full time roster spot. The problem is: he’s also a centre. While he has played wing at times, from what I’ve seen, he looks out of his element and seems to be more comfortable playing at his natural position. Therefore, he seems to be the odd man out at the moment, given that Spezza, Turris, Smith, and Pageau have the four lines covered at centre, as mentioned.

This brings me back to what I mentioned before as “interesting.”

To me, having an early first round pick being the odd man out of the lineup does not make sense for the organization. Conventional hockey wisdom is that early first round forwards should end up playing on one of the top two lines- otherwise, they are usually considered “busts.” While Zibanejad is currently the odd man out, he showed great chemistry with fellow young Swede Jakob Silfverberg, and as mentioned has lots of potential. Turris also has upside, but has never scored more than 15 goals in a season, or picked up more than 20 assists in a season. This is likely due to how Phoenix (mis) managed his time, but this makes me wonder: who has greater upside, Turris, or Zibanejad?

The answer to this question is what I believe Bryan Murray needs to examine carefully in order to move this team forward and address the earlier question of “who should be traded?” for a proven goal scorer. They are both early first round picks, and I feel the team needs to decide which one of them to build around for the future. In my mind, chemistry wise, for the sake of depth there are two main options that make sense:

Scenario 1:

Line#1: (?)-Spezza- (player received for Turris)

Line#2: Silfverberg- Zibanejad- Michalek

Scenario 2:

Line#1: Silfverberg –Spezza- (player received for Zibanejad)

Line#2: (?) - Turris- Michalek

(Note- the ? above was put in because it is not yet known if Alfie is coming back, or where Conacher/Stone will eventually fall on the depth chart)

I’m not sure which of these two options is best, but given that Zibanejad has less salary attached, I’m assuming that makes him a more tradeable commodity.

Now given all of this information, the next step is to look for someone to trade with. I’ve already mentioned the criteria for teams who would actually trade a proven scoring winger, so now the question is: what teams are in one of those positions at the moment with something of value, AND who could use a centre?

The first team that comes to my mind is Anaheim. With Getzlaf and Perry both signing long term, lucrative deals this year, and the salary cap going down next season, Bobby Ryan might be available for the right offer. Also, with Saku Koivu getting a little long in the tooth, and Teemu Selanne possibly retiring, you would think that injecting a promising young centre like Zibanejad into the lineup while shedding salary would be of interest. The thought of this trade has me salivating at the prospect of Spezza feeding Ryan.

The second team that comes to mind is Chicago. They have a team they likely do not want to change very much, given that they’ve been on a year-long tear and are now playing for the ultimate prize, but they are close to the cap and likely going to have to move somebody in the offseason for breathing room. Any one of their top players would be of interest if they consider moving someone.

I’m sure there are other teams to add to this list as well, but for now this sums up my thoughts on this topic, and I’d be very interested to hear others’ opinions on this! Part of the reason I think a trade is necessary is because the free agent pool is almost non-existent this year. Horton, Clowe and Clarkson are the only 3 forwards that would be worth signing in my opinion, but given the restricted market, I just assumed that their asking price would be too high and there would be little chance of Ottawa landing one of them. On a closing note, with Gonchar recently departed, I’d also like to throw in that trading Zibanejad or Turris for a top pairing defenseman could also be an option, but that’s a whole different can of worms and I’m all “written out” right now, lol.

Happy offseason everyone, and look forward to hearing your thoughts!

Cheers

Despite the Sens' success, there was one major gap the team had this year that was obvious not just to Sens fans, but anyone who watches hockey: Scoring goals.

This brings me back to what I mentioned before as “interesting.”

Scenario 1:

Line#1: (?)-Spezza- (player received for Turris)

Line#2: Silfverberg- Zibanejad- Michalek

Scenario 2:

Line#1: Silfverberg –Spezza- (player received for Zibanejad)

Line#2: (?) - Turris- Michalek

(Note- the ? above was put in because it is not yet known if Alfie is coming back, or where Conacher/Stone will eventually fall on the depth chart)

I’m not sure which of these two options is best, but given that Zibanejad has less salary attached, I’m assuming that makes him a more tradeable commodity.

Happy offseason everyone, and look forward to hearing your thoughts!

Cheers

Some Salivating Trade Possibilities

2013-06-12T14:16:52Z

I was poking around and read this post on the Flyers site, and I started salivating. http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/10/4413378/keith-yandle-trade-rumors-flyers-offseason-2013 I said to myself "Why can't we get involved in this discussion if Yandle, Coutourier or Brayden Schenn are available for the right price?" Obviously it depends what that price is. There was alot of talk about Yandle at the deadline last year, and the Yotes didn't get what they wanted... so no deal. I just wonder what they'd want for him. And Coutourier or Schenn would also go a long ways towards making us better, but again what would they be asking? Probably a couple of our dmen including Cowen. This is certainly worth some tire kicking. Whaddya think?

The Young Contender's Dilemma

2013-06-07T16:55:23Z

For hockey fans, summer has always been the season of roster speculation, pipe dreams and what ifs. For Senators fans, a season of unexpected success has given this offseason a different, more significant feel.

A Nice Problem to Have

Last June, a patient, well-executed rebuild seemed to be the only sensible choice. When the lockout ended, a young roster and a ridiculous run of injuries (Mike Lundin, Guillaume Latendresse, Peter Regin... who am I forgetting?) gave Ottawa the look of a team with potential, but not yet a contender. Today, a second consecutive playoff berth has many thinking that its time to stop talking rebuild and start filling the trophy case.

The current roster has the talent and depth to earn a playoff spot as it stands. With the expected return to health of Ottawa's three top scorers from the 2011/12 season, there is a sense that the team may only need one or two more pieces to become a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The choice facing Brian Murray is whether to go out and get those pieces now or to see how the current squad develops.

Every Senators wish list begins with the return of the Captain, but that will have to be left to fate. Number 11 aside, the top priority is a first line winger. Most would also like to add a top-4 defenceman. The dilemma is that without any of those additions, Ottawa already has at least 23 NHL-ready players on the roster.

The Current Roster

Barring trades and injuries, sixteen players appear to be a lock for the opening day lineup based on past performance and contract status:

Forwards (10): Spezza, Michalek, Turris, Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Conacher, Smith, Neil, Condra, Greening

Defence (4): Karlsson, Methot, Cowen, Phillips

Assuming that Daniel Alfredsson does not return (reverse jinx!), good prospects vying for the remaining spots include Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Stephane Da Costa at forward and Eric Gryba, Patrick Wiercioch, and Mark Borowiecki on defense. Add two good goalies and that is a solid, playoff-caliber 23-man roster with significant room to improve through the season. Some of these bubble players will benefit from more work in the AHL (and will be replaced on the opening day roster with lower upside players like Matt Kassian and Andre Benoit) but none would be out of place on the fourth line / third pairing at the NHL level.

Despite this depth, there is a strong feeling among fans that a big move, especially one for a scoring winger, could put this team over the top right away. With Ottawa's abundance of cap room and prospects, it is even more difficult to be patient while that potential develops. We want it now!

Assessing the Forwards

Paul MacLean's comments in this week's 30 Thoughts about the progress of the young forwards put the roster issue in a nutshell:

"That's the internal debate that we have," he said. "How good are they going to be? None of them have scored at this level. Of the group (...) we're still trying to find out what kind of NHL player they are. We believe they will score here. But how many?"

MacLean was referring specifically to Turris, Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Greening, Hoffman and Stone, but the same applies to the other younger forwards. Compare these players with a relatively weak crop of available free agents. Is David Clarkson, Pascal Dupuis or a long list of past-their-prime scorers worth more than the potential of the players already on the roster?

The GM's Dilemma

Whether added as a free agent or by trade, any top line player will be taking away 20 minutes a night that could be used to see which of the young forwards can score consistently against top competition. Should Alfredsson return, there will be even fewer minutes to spread around. It is difficult to acquire elite offensive talent, whether you buy it, trade for it or develop it in house. If Murray believes this team is close to being a contender, does he make a move now or give the young players 60 games to see what they can do?

There is an enormous advantage to waiting until near next year's trade deadline. With the benefit of last year's experience, a more stable roster, a full training camp and a complete season, the Senators would be in a much better position to assess who can score at the top level, and who can be packaged in trade for the big winger everybody wants. The question is: do Murray, his owner and the fan base have the patience?

A Nice Problem to Have

The Current Roster

Barring trades and injuries, sixteen players appear to be a lock for the opening day lineup based on past performance and contract status:

Forwards (10): Spezza, Michalek, Turris, Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Conacher, Smith, Neil, Condra, Greening

Defence (4): Karlsson, Methot, Cowen, Phillips

Assessing the Forwards

Paul MacLean's comments in this week's 30 Thoughts about the progress of the young forwards put the roster issue in a nutshell:

"That's the internal debate that we have," he said. "How good are they going to be? None of them have scored at this level. Of the group (...) we're still trying to find out what kind of NHL player they are. We believe they will score here. But how many?"

The GM's Dilemma

Poll

You're the GM. What's your approach to the offseason?

A Statistical Look at the Sens 2013 UFAs

2013-06-03T15:37:52Z

With the Sens going into year 3 of their "3-year rebuild", I thought it’d be a good time to look into our UFAs to see if there’s anything in the data out there that can further enhance the discussion that all Sens fans will be having while we countdown the days to the NHL Entry Draft and Free Agency (July 5th this year).

As per Capgeek, the Sens currently have $43,500,833 tied up to 19 roster players. With a $64 million cap next year, Bryan Murray and the rest of the management team have put this team in a very favourable situation in comparison to the rest of the league, with many teams looking to use one or both of their allotted amnesty buyouts this year just to fit under the cap. However, just because we’re in a favourable monetary position does not mean that Murray and co. will have easy decisions to make this offseason, and on the contrary, many tough decisions will have to be made, especially with Murray and Maclean on different wavelengths on whether this team is a serious contender or not.

Terminology

Before I look at the UFAs, I’d like to introduce some terms that some may be familiar with but nevertheless can be confusing.

Corsi is like +/-, but for shots instead and include ALL shots directed at net (shots on goal, blocked shots, and missed shot). Corsi is typically used as a measure of zone time and to see whether the player was driving possession (via directing shots on net). In this article, I'll be focusing on Corsi Relative (Corsi Rel on Behind the Net) to see how players did in comparison to the rest of the team

PDO is a measure created to measure "luck", and is the sum of goaltender save % while that player is on the ice, as well as that player’s on-ice shooting %. Over a long period of time, PDO regresses to a mean value of 1000, and players above 1000 by a lot are usually "lucky" and likely to perform worse next season while players below 1000 are usually "unlucky" and are likely to perform better next season.

A player’s individual stats are driven by a lot of things, but two of the most important concepts are Quality of Competition and Offensive Zone Starts. Behind The Net tracks Corsi Rel QoC, which is a quality of competition metric relative to your teammates. Using this, we can see which players on the team played the toughest minutes and who played the easiest. Used in conjunction with Offensive Zone Starts (how often that player started in the offensive zone -> more likely to direct a shot rather than give one up), we can see who Maclean sheltered, and who he threw out to the dogs.

(a better explanation of these statistics can be found here)

A helpful graphic called a Player Usage Chart was created by Rob Vollman, and will help us when visualizing these players throughout this discussion. In the chart below, I made the games played cutoff at 10 (eliminating Pageau, Hoffman, Stone, Borowiecki, Da Costa, Spezza, and Cowen). Relative Quality of Competition is along the Y-axis, while Offensive Zone Starts are along the X-axis. The bigger the bubble, the higher the Corsi Rel value. Blue means a positive value (good -> when player was on the ice, he was generating more shots than he was giving up), whereas red is a negative value (bad -> being outshot).

(Note: I created mine using @theninjagreg’s app instead; please click the image for a bigger view)

via i42.tinypic.com

UFAs

Daniel Alfredsson

If you’re a Sens fan and you don’t think Daniel Alfredsson can play in this league anymore, you’re nuts. Alfie played 57 of the team’s 58 games and was the Sens leading scorer in the postseason (4G + 6A = 10P) and was the team’s 3rd leading scorer in the regular season (10G + 16A = 26P). Alfie ranked 5th on the team in terms of Corsi. Of note, he wasn’t sheltered as he played against slightly above-average competition, and his statistics show that he still be a regular contributor in the NHL.

Guillaume Latendresse

Yesterday, Gui Latendresse sent out this tweet. So though there’s no "official" word from the team, I highly doubt he’ll be back. Signed in the offseason to insulate some of the younger forwards and provide goal scoring with net presence, #guyet was injured early and afterwards found it hard to outplay the very rookies he was supposed to insulate. Latendresse played the 2nd hardest minutes (after Dziurzynski) in the 27 games he did suit up for, often on the Turris or Zibanejad lines, though he wasn’t a positive possession player relative to the team. He did have some memorable goals over the season and playoffs, including this as my favourite in his first game back. His final stat line reads 6G, 4A for 10P in 27 games. Though the free agent class is thin, there’s a surplus of in-house forwards that could fill his shoes (Stone comes to mind) and I don’t think he’ll be missed very much (except by Bonk’s Mullet). Au Revoir, #guyet.

Peter Regin

Peter Regin is an interesting case. He played 11 games in 08-09, but it was in 2009-10 where he really took off, with 75 games played, 13G + 16A for 29 points. Regin was the best possession player on the team that year (by a large margin) with a Corsi Rel value of 18.9 [surprisingly, Jesse Winchester was second with a 10.9 value] and finished more of his shifts in the offensive zone than he started (52% to 50%. However, as well all are aware, he didn’t have a very good season in 10-11, but was also mildly unlucky (PDO of 985). He’s was plagued with injuries in the latter half of 10-11 and only played 10 games in 11-12. This year was meant to be a brand new start for Regin, and although he managed to dress for 27 games (!!!) he was a negative driver in possession for the first time in his career (albeit in a small sample), and found himself in the press box for most of the year. All in all, Regin only has 5 goals over his last 92 games and though he’s Karlsson’s BFF, I highly doubt he’ll be back.

Sergei Gonchar

Sergei Gonchar arguably had his best year in an Ottawa Senators uniform production wise, with a 3G + 24A = 27P in the regular season – highlighted by a Sens record 10 game assist streak, with an additional 6 assists in the playoffs. Out of those 27 points, only 12 (1G + 11A) were at 5 on 5 play. Gonchar’s minutes have been getting easier in difficulty as time has passed, and he was a negative possession driver compared to the rest of the team (and has been since 09-10). A positive for Gonchar is that he played a LOT of minutes for Paul Maclean this year, and was cited as a key veteran in a room that had to go through a lot of adversity. According to his exit interview, he’s looking for term over money, and is hoping for a 2 year deal while stressing that he is very comfortable in Ottawa. I’d love to give him a 1-year deal while our other offensive defenseman (Wiercioch, Ceci, etc) hone their defensive game a bit more, but I think that 2 years would be too long when you factor in the Sens internal cap, and the fact that there isn’t really a significant argument showing that Wiercioch or Cowen couldn’t perform equally or better in Gonchar’s minutes as well.

Andre Benoit

I’m profiling Benoit next because I personally think that the team will keep EITHER Gonchar or Benoit. The 28 year old journeyman had an eventful season, and suited up for 33 games in the regular season (3G + 7A = 10P) as well as 5 in the postseason (0G + 3A = 3P). He certainly passed the "eyeball test" for me, and I really liked what he brought as a member of the team’s 3rd pairing. Out of all the team’s players, Benoit played the easiest minutes (only O’Brien and Kassian played easier), with Wiercioch playing practically similar minutes. Unlike his Binghamton D-partner, Benoit wasn’t sheltered AS much in terms of zone starts and drove possession accordingly. I highly doubt he can be much more than he was this season, but I still think that he’s a useful 6/7 defenseman.

Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin was a player signed in the offseason to stabilize the defense core and to help out with the PK. I don’t really know what to say about him because he only played 11 games due to a broken finger to start the year, and a concussion when he was now starting to play significant minutes. A lot of the numbers that I’ve been citing won’t really mean much in this case, but it’s worth noting that Lundin had the lowest number of offensive-zone starts on the team, albeit against not too difficult competition. I don’t think he’ll be back.

Hugh Jessiman

The BSens man of the year has signed in the KHL as per Dmitry Chesnokov

Fare thee well, Huge Specimen.

Nathan Lawson

Nathan Lawson was Binghamton’s primary goalie after the lockout ended and took the two-headed monster (Lehner + Bishop) away from the folks at the Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena, and performed very well in his 23 games with a save percentage of .938%. Unfortunately, the AHL stats page is horrible, but with no AHL depth at goalie right now other than newly signed college FA Andrew Hammond, I think Luke Richardson would appreciate having Lawson back.

Credits

All statistics are from Behind the Net. Thanks to Capgeek, Rob Vollman, Greg Sinclair, and Ryan Classic (for helping me edit).

Terminology

Before I look at the UFAs, I’d like to introduce some terms that some may be familiar with but nevertheless can be confusing.

(a better explanation of these statistics can be found here)

(Note: I created mine using @theninjagreg’s app instead; please click the image for a bigger view)

via i42.tinypic.com

UFAs

Daniel Alfredsson

Guillaume Latendresse

The BSens man of the year has signed in the KHL as per Dmitry Chesnokov

Fare thee well, Huge Specimen.

Nathan Lawson

Credits

All statistics are from Behind the Net. Thanks to Capgeek, Rob Vollman, Greg Sinclair, and Ryan Classic (for helping me edit).

Eulogy: Remembering the 2013 Ottawa Senators

2013-05-28T04:17:25Z

Ed Note: Noted NHL content aggregator, Puck Daddy, likes to publish (allegedly) humourous eulogies for each NHL team as they get eliminated from the playoffs. Usually these are put together by a competent writer who blogs for the team that eliminated the recently deceased squad, although sometimes they are written by Andrew Berkshire instead. Admittedly, I didn't finish reading all of the "official" eulogy as I stopped reading halfway through to make sure I immediately mailed a nomination form so Berkshire and Obrand would be eligible for the "Down Goes Brown Memorial Best 'KANATA IS SO FUCKING FAR AWAY FROM OTTAWA LOLOLOLOL' Joke" Award. (It's a thing. Look it up.) Luckily, PD has established the practice of letting fans of the deceased team write their own eulogy. Therefore, it is only fitting that I attempt a proper memorial for this year's Senators squad. After all, what could possibly commemorate this team better than an obscure post that will be acknowledged by few and appreciated by even fewer? Getting ignored by the mainstream media is how we roll in Ottawa. Obligatory: This is a roast and you will be offended by it, so don't take it so seriously.

By Speedy McEachern

Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to remember the 2013 Ottawa Senators. Well, I say "remember". It's more like I'm the priest mumbling Latin over the bodies of beggars being laid to rest in a mass grave; we all just want to get this over as soon as possible.

First, I have to get this off my chest: Dear NHL, if you did not play any regular season games in 2012, you do not get to say this was the "2012-13 Season". Don't run over my dog in your Hummer, buy me a new puppy, name it Spot, then say it's as good as the old one. That's bullshit. We both know what you did, so stop acting like it's all fine. We missed hockey for half a year, so you have to acknowledge the fact that we missed hockey for half a year. Fair is fair.

Anyway, assuming the 2013 Ottawa Senators consisted of washed up veterans, injured "star" players, and fringe AHL players at they time they were eliminated, this team died the exact same way that they lived. Don't tell their fans that, though. Good lord, have you ever seen a group of people so desperate to convince themselves that the SPAM they were being fed was fillet mignon? Here is a brief list of the less-egregious falsehoods Sens fans were desperate to foist upon the world:

Kyle Turris is actually doing a good job as 1C.
Cory Conacher for Ben Bishop wasn't a massively disappointing trade.
[Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Karlsson, Erik Condra] is the next [Marian Hossa, Steven Stamkos, Daniel Briere, Nick Lidstrom, America's Next Top Model]. (Delete as appropriate.)
Milan Michalek speaks English.
April Reimer isn't THAT hot...

But who can blame the Sens fans, really? Faced with the bitter prospect of having no stars, no goal scoring, and no hope (or as the Calgary Flames call it, "reality"), their minds would have disintegrated faster than Milan Michalek's ACL if they didn't construct such elaborate fantasies. This explanation, however, is still no excuse for the following delusions:

Ottawa has a rivalry with Pittsburgh.

This, of course, is a laughable statement. I haven't seen a hockey team get this badly mangled in the playoffs since the last time Ottawa played Pittsburgh, or when Ottawa played Pittsburgh the time before that. For the record, other so-called "rivalries" on the same level as the Ottawa-Pittsburgh rivalry include, "The Harlem Globetrotters vs. The Washington Generals", "Bulls vs. China Shops", "Mumford and Sons vs. Songwriting Versatility", and "Professor Charles Xavier vs. Stairs". Hockey Jesus barely even needed to show up for this one. Sure, he made a special guest appearance in Game 2, but mostly he delegated the dirty work to Geno "The Baptist" Malkin and James "False Prophet" Neal. Dan Bylsma also deserves a lot of credit for developing a coaching scheme designed to shut down the Sens' breakout star of the playoffs: Kyle Turris' Ass (#BigBootyPoppin).

Craig Anderson is a goaltender that can win a Cup.

Let's give Craig Anderson some credit: He went from, "That Goaltender Who Can't Win a Playoff Series" to "That Goaltender Who Can Almost Never Win a Playoff Series", so he's really moving on up. It's pretty amazing that the Senators said to themselves, "Here's a goaltender who got run out of town in Florida AND Colorado. He's a franchise goaltender." and the entire fan base went along with it. Luckily, the Sens have Robin Lehner waiting in the wings for when the Sens decide that they'd like to win a number of playoff series greater than 1. This is the same organization that drafted Mathieu Chouinard, Ray Emery, Brian Elliot, Mathieu Chouinard again, and Martin Prusek, so you know, based on the company he's in, Robin Lehner is TOTALLY going to work out.

Daniel Alfredsson's still got it.

Here's a list of things Daniel Alfredsson's still got: clown hair, a girly headband for said clown hair, a firm grip on reality, a flair for the dramatic. Here's a list of things Daniel Alfredsson no longer possesses: youth, gamebreaking skill, fucks to give. Seriously, you people are selfish assholes. How much more does Alfie need to give you people until you'll just let him go retire in peace? Unless Guillaume Latendresse pulls a Peter Regin and allows Alfie to slowly suck up his life-force to sustain him for another season or two (That's still probably worth $2MM/yr), Alfie's going to settle down for a well-deserved rest. At least we are all be able to look forward to Alfie getting booed by a Scotiabank Place full of Leafs fans when he gets his number retired at the beginning of next season. I can think of no more fitting an ending to his career.

The Senators are well-built for the future.

Most Sens fans will tell you this team is only going to get better. I can't see it. Sorry if I don't want to jump on the bandwagon of a team with overrated goaltending, declining stars, mediocre rookies, and top defenseman whose Achilles heel is literally his Achilles heel. There's no way the team would have made it as far as they did without Coach Paul Maclean, which is why it's REALLY going to suck when he leaves Ottawa to coach Vancouver to a Cup in 3 years time. Luckily, the Sens will probably still continue to make the playoffs, as there's no way Detroit, Boston, Toronto, and Montreal are going to be THAT competitive every year, right? I mean, what do those teams have other than storied histories, rabid fanbases, and the ability to spend to the salary cap every year with impunity? NOTHING! Still though, if I may address Eugene Melnyk directly right now: Dude, you may want to commence Operation Sell More Orgasm Nasal Spray if you intend to stay competitive in the coming years. You're going to have to pay Jean-Gabriel Pageau his money eventually...

People will fucking love it when I post pictures of my pasty man-thighs on the internet.

What the....just...why...WHY GODDAMMIT?!?!

As King George V once said, "Do not pity the dead, Harry; pity the living.", and the Sens' fans are truly to be pitied. Their team is dead, yet they live on with only their memories to sustain them. Reality has dealt them a harsh blow, but still they soldier on, loyal to the end, ever hopeful for a future that will never come. It is now with them that our thoughts must lie. Our thoughts and prayers are with them all, though their pain be beyond our ability to salve. Let us remember that death is a part of life, and we must take the good with the bad. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Unless you're Jaromir Jagr. Seriously, that dude is ridiculous! He's like eleventy-billion years old.

May God have mercy on us all.

Amen.

By Speedy McEachern

Kyle Turris is actually doing a good job as 1C.
Cory Conacher for Ben Bishop wasn't a massively disappointing trade.
[Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Karlsson, Erik Condra] is the next [Marian Hossa, Steven Stamkos, Daniel Briere, Nick Lidstrom, America's Next Top Model]. (Delete as appropriate.)
Milan Michalek speaks English.
April Reimer isn't THAT hot...

Ottawa has a rivalry with Pittsburgh.

Craig Anderson is a goaltender that can win a Cup.

Daniel Alfredsson's still got it.

The Senators are well-built for the future.

People will fucking love it when I post pictures of my pasty man-thighs on the internet.

What the....just...why...WHY GODDAMMIT?!?!

Unless you're Jaromir Jagr. Seriously, that dude is ridiculous! He's like eleventy-billion years old.

May God have mercy on us all.

Amen.

A (Attempted) Humorous Look at the 2013 Season

2013-05-27T23:29:48Z

Now that we’ve had some time to digest the Sens’ disheartening performance against the Pens, let’s take a look back at the shortened season that was.

Note: This is obviously not a serious analysis. I poke fun at Sens fans, and I include myself in that group, so don’t take it too seriously.

July 1: A shrewd Bryan Murray promises Scott Howson that no, Nick Foligno’s offensive output was not an anomaly, and that he would gladly take Marc Méthot’s absurdly overpaid contract off his hands.

Mike Lundin signs a one-year deal with the club and instantly fills the "perpetually scratched blue liner" role which needed to be filled after Matt Gilroy’s departure.

~~Guyet~~ Guillaume Latendresse is also signed to a one-year deal, marking the last time any Sens fans will refer to him as Guillaume Latendresse.

September 15: Completely annoyed by (the lack of) actions taken by the league and the NHLPA, fans begin to swear off the league, ensuring whoever will listen that they will never return to this joke of a league. (No seriously, sports talk radio and hockey fans in general became completely unbearable.)

January: Fans flock back to the arenas in record numbers, which all but certifies that the next lockout will take place in a decade or so.

January 22: Mike Watson, aka Paul MacClone, sits directly behind Paul MacLean during a Senators home game, instantly becoming the best story of the year.

January 27: Jason Spezza suffers a back injury that will require surgery and that’ll keep him out of the lineup until at least April. Sens fans are still confident that, with the depth of this team, the quality goaltending and the respected coaching staff, the playoffs aren’t just a desired goal, it remains a very feasible one.

February 13: Erik Karlsson is victim of a freak injury at the ~~blades~~ hands of Matt Cooke. All hope is lost. We will not make the playoffs, and thinking that we will is nothing but fan optimism, blatantly ignoring the fact that the best defenseman in the game has been taken out of the game by a noted cheap-shot artist. Somehow, hatred towards Matt Cooke augments even more.

February 18: Hey look, a Bobby Butler sighting!! (I am not bitter, I am not bitter, I am not bitter…)

February 21: Sens fans are relieved to hear that their star goaltender is day-to-day, until we realize that "day-to-day’" is really code for "He’ll return sometime this season. We think. Probably. Maybe. Hopefully."

March 19: To the surprise of absolutely no one, Milan Michalek misses a chunk of games to get surgery on his susceptible knee.

April 3: Goaltender Ben Bishop is sent packing and joins the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for rookie sensation Cory Conacher along with a fourth round pick. Everyone agrees that Bryan Murray got the better part of the deal, and pundits collectively wonder how Murray could obtain a draft pick in addition to Conacher.

April 5: After a 4-2 loss at the hands of the lowly Buffalo Sabres, fans are outraged that Bryan Murray could trade such a useful player for a bum who couldn’t get even on the score sheet against such a pathetic team.

April 9: Rihanna causes quite a stir in Sensland when she is photographed wearing nothing but a Sens jersey. The hilarious @BonksMullet then starts a new Twitter trend, #Rihannaing, in hopes of aiding the Sens’ chances of winning, thus forever eliminating the stereotype that Sens fans are boring.

April 9: The last sighting of Peter Regin’s remaining shoulder in an NHL jersey.

May 24: After eliminating the Northeast champs, the Sens fall in disappointing fashion to the mighty Pens in five games. Now some people might think that defeating their division rival and coming out of the first round for the first time in six years would be the biggest storyline from the 2013 season, but they would sadly be mistaken. As impressive as their first round series was, and as disappointing as their performance against the Pens was, the star of the playoffs remains Bryan Murray’s excitable nature. Just look at him – how does this not instantly make you feel better?

June: Paul MacLean becomes an inspiration to every bug-eyed fat walrus when he collects his Jack Adams trophy.