Game 70 preview: Ottawa Senators @ Dallas Stars

A preview of the game between the Ottawa Senators and Dallas Stars on 22 March 2014.

The Ottawa Senators have 13 games left in the season and don't have much to play for. Per Sportsclubstats.com, a 10-1-2 run will leave them with a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs. Playoffs aside, a win would be nice. The team hasn't won a game in exactly two weeks and hasn't allowed less than three goals on standard NHL quality ice since 6 February.

Here are the expected lines from the Ottawa Senators.

Hemsky - Spezza - Michalek
MacArthur - Turris - Ryan
Greening - Smith - Neil
Hoffman - Zibanejad - Condra

Methot - Karlsson
Phillips - Ceci
Cowen - Gryba

Lehner (starter)
Hammond

Some notes for tonight:

  • The Senators have lost five in a row. Seems like 10. They have scored 16 goals in those five games and come away with zero wins and two points.
  • The Stars are at home and desperately need a win to stay within striking distance of the Coyotes for the final playoff spot.
  • Erik Karlsson's next goal will tie his own club record for goals by a defenceman that he also shares with Steve Duchesne. He is on a five-game points streak with seven points.
  • Karlsson is having a nearly identical (and slightly better) season this year than he did in his Norris winning season by fancy stats. This season he has on an on-ice Corsi percentage of 54.9% (54.8% in 2011-2012), relative Corsi percentage of +4.6% (+4.0% in 2011-2012), 55.1% offensive to defensive zone start ratio (56.4% in 2011-2012) and playing on average against players that play on average 29.1% of their team's 5-on-5 ice time (29.3% in 2011-2012).
  • Then why is Karlsson -20 this year and +16 in 2011-2012? Well for one thing Karlsson is a -9 in 5-on-5 goalie-on situations. The rest are empty net and shorthanded goals. Ottawa has allowed seven empty net goals. Opposition goalies were allowing goals on 8.1% of shots with Karlsson on the ice in 2011-2012 versus 9.1% this year. The Senators were scoring on 8.9% of shots with Karlsson on the ice in 2011-2012 and 7.3% this year.
  • Here is a list of teams with less points than the Ottawa Senators: Flames, Islanders, Panthers, Oilers and Sabres. The Ducks are going to get a good pick unless the Senators improve.
  • What has happened to Robin Lehner? Yikes.
  • If Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson can get two more goals, the team will have five different 20-goal scorers but likely none with 30.

Here are some stats leaders for the two teams tonight.

Category Ottawa Dallas
Player # Player #
Goals Bobby Ryan 23 Tyler Seguin 31
Assists Erik Karlsson 46 Tyler Seguin 41
Points Erik Karlsson 64 Tyler Seguin 72
Shots Erik Karlsson 221 Jamie Benn 238
Average Ice time Erik Karlsson 27:13 Alex Goligoski 24:09

Category Ottawa Dallas
# Rank # Rank
Goals For 2.83 10th 2.80 11th
Goals Against 3.30 29th 2.84 20th
Corsi Close % 52.1% 8th 52.0% 9th
Fenwick Close % 50.9% 13th 52.3% 8th
Shots For 32.6 4th 31.7 6th
Shots Against 34.4 28th 30.4 18th
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