FanPost

How easy is our schedule? What do we have to do to make the playoffs?

So there has been a lot of talk about how the Senators have passed the more difficult parts of our schedule and things SHOULD be less difficult in order for the Sens to make the playoffs. I have decided to break down our remaining schedule to see if it does help us out. I split the teams in the league into 4 categories based on their current point%.

The Sens remaining games are against the following teams from each of these groups: Greater than 60% (PIT,CHI,TBLx2,COL), between 56% and 60% (NYRx2,MTLx2,TOR), between 50% and 55% (DET,VAN,WPG,NSH,CAR,DAL,NJD), less than 45% (CGYx2,EDM,NYIx2,FLA).

From this I did my best to figure out how many points we would need to get against each category to get the 30 pts i feel will be sufficient to get us into the 8th spot in our remaining 23 games:

OTT

Category

>.600

.600>X>.560

. 560>X>.450

X<.450>

Total

Currrent

Games

5

5

7

6

23

59

Available Points

10

10

14

12

46

63

Required Points

4

6

10

10

30

93

Points %

0.4

0.6

0.7143

0.833

0.652








I also decided to do the same to see what Detroit would have to accomplish to get 1 point less than Ottawa. Regardless of other teams if we do not pass Detroit (or one of the Habs or Leafs) we are out of the playoffs.

DET

Category

>.60

.60>X>.56

. 56>X>.45

X<.45>

Tot.

Currrent

Games

7

7

6

3

23

59

Available Points

14

14

12

6

46

66

Required Points

5

8

8

5

28

92

Points %

0.3571

0.571

0.667

0.833

0.565

A few things to note:

1-Despite needing fewer points in fewer games Detroit and Ottawa's % in each category are still very close. This does support the theory that Ottawa should have a better chance down the stretch.

2-We have a lot of games against the bottom feeders, in the other categories it was very close between each gap but there are 5 teams below .500, those same teams are all .440 and less. Despite making up 1/6 teams in the league Ottawa gets to play them in more than 1/4 of their games.

3-Detroit has 7 games against top teams while Ottawa has 5, two of which are against Tampa and one agains the Avalanche which in my mind are much more beatable teams than the Blues, Blackhawks, Penguins or Bruins.

4-The teams just above .500 are the Sens main competitors for this spot. That is why I leaned heavily on that category to earn the team their spot.

Obviously this isn't perfect but I will be using my own spreadsheet to keep track of our chances as the games trickle by. This set up does leave me optimistic in our chances, or at least better than the 26% sportsclubstats is predicting.

Let me know what you think!

This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.

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