FanPost

The Other Erik

When Paul MacLean arrived from the Detroit Red Wings organization, he brought with him a system that is focused on puck-possession. Why is puck possession important? Simply put, when you have the puck, you can score, and your opponents cannot.

One player who really exemplified this was Erik Karlsson, who consistently drove the puck up the ice, despite playing 70% of his ice-time with Filip Kuba (who has never been better than an average possession player). But he wasn't the only Erik on the Sens last season that drove possession. I'm talking about Erik Condra.

To many, he may just seem like an undersized 4th liner who fans on empty net opportunities. But after looking at his numbers, you'll realize how big of a role he played on the team.

To start, let's look at the team's forwards Corsi numbers, (for those who don't know, Corsi uses attempted shots on goal to measure puck possession) courtesy of www.stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Player Name

CorF%

TMCorF%

OppCorF%

ALFREDSSON, DANIEL

0.559

0.499

0.499

TURRIS, KYLE

0.554

0.508

0.498

CONDRA, ERIK

0.546

0.493

0.496

FOLIGNO, NICK

0.539

0.496

0.495

SPEZZA, JASON

0.515

0.501

0.498

BUTLER, BOBBY

0.512

0.505

0.495

SMITH, ZACK

0.501

0.515

0.495

NEIL, CHRIS

0.495

0.511

0.493

MICHALEK, MILAN

0.495

0.528

0.497

GREENING, COLIN

0.495

0.524

0.498

DAUGAVINS, KASPARS

0.464

0.525

0.492

KONOPKA, ZENON

0.443

0.515

0.492

Looking at the chart on the left, Condra had the 3rd best Corsi rating among forwards while playing against average competition. What's even more impressive is that he had the lowest average line mate Corsi, meaning he played with the worst possession players on the team. It's also worth mentioning that Greening and Michalek were below average possession players despite having very high TMCorF% ratings.

CorF%: Corsi for % (Corsi For/ Corsi For +Corsi Against)

TMCorF%: Average line mate's Corsi F%, weighted by ice-time

OppCorF%: Average opponent's Corsi F%, weighted by ice-time

Together

Condra Apart

TM Apart

Player

CF%

CF%

CF%

ZACK SMITH

0.514

0.571

0.495

KASPARS DAUGAVINS

0.489

0.57

0.435

ERIK KARLSSON

0.553

0.53

0.539

JARED COWEN

0.554

0.532

0.5

CHRIS PHILLIPS

0.52

0.549

0.492

SERGEI GONCHAR

0.512

0.552

0.497

FILIP KUBA

0.551

0.534

0.501

KYLE TURRIS

0.559

0.534

0.549

DANIEL ALFREDSSON

0.58

0.532

0.554

Above are Condra's top line mate's Corsi numbers with and without him, along with Condra's numbers apart from that player. This chart just further proves Condra's puck possession skills. A few things pop out to me from these numbers:

-all of his line mates did better with him than without him

-how much Smith and Daug held him back possession-wise

-how strong of a possession line he, Alfie and Turris were

-Daugavins struggled A LOT when he wasn't with Condra

Looking at these numbers, I feel it's reasonable to say that Condra is a good 3rd liner, and can be used as a stop-gap in the top 6 in case of injuries. To be honest, I'd rather him playing RW alongside Spezza than Greening, although with Silf and Zibanejad coming up next year, he may not need to.

Anybody who has watched Condra play can say with a degree of certainty that he has trouble putting the puck in the net. His shooting percentage last season was 5.7%, well below league average of 8.9%. Some of that can be attributed to simply being a bad shooter, but some can be attributed to bad luck. I think we can learn something about him by looking back at his past numbers.

AHL Stats

Year

GP

G

A

PTS

SOG

S%

2009-10

80

11

27

38

160

6.9

2010-11

55

17

30

47

153

11.1

Total

135

28

57

85

313

8.9

NHL Stats

Year

GP

G

A

PTS

SOG

S%

2010-11

26

6

5

11

48

12.5

2011-12

81

8

17

25

140

5.7

Total

107

14

22

36

188

7.4

During his time in the AHL Condra shot 8.9%, while the league average was around 9.4%. So right away we know he’ll most likely never shoot above average in the NHL (big surprise, huh?). One interesting thing to point out about his AHL stats is that in 09-10 he shot an underwhelming 6.9%, and then the next season he rebounded with an above-average 11.1%. By the looks of it, he carried that high S% into the NHL with him, shooting 12.5%. So let’s look at his S% as a whole in his pro career, shall we? He shot below-average in 09-10, above-average in 10-11, and below-average in 11-12. Ya know what? I think I spot a pattern. Odds are that butt-ugly 5.7% will rebound to a more realistic number in 12-13.

Conclusion: Can Condra hit? No. Can he fight? No. Does he sometimes frustrate with his lack of finishing skills? Yes. But what he does bring to the table is well above-average puck possession skills stemming from good hockey sense and strong 2-way play, which creates scoring chances for his team and prevents those of his opponents. This is exactly the reason I love stats; it separates what we interpret is happening from what is actually happening.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Silver Seven

You must be a member of Silver Seven to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Silver Seven. You should read them.

Join Silver Seven

You must be a member of Silver Seven to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Silver Seven. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker