Now that the draft and associated excitement (?? Is it just me or was our haul in this draft after Ceci not all that exciting?) have passed, I'm looking forward to next weekend's UFA rush and seeing what Brian Murray's can achieve.

Here's what we've got signed.

Here's what others think we need:

1. One top six forward
2. Three defencemen

Here's what I think we have (including useful RFAs and prospects with a chance).

Here's what I think we need:

1. resign Kuba and Carkner
2. bring in a top-4 D (UFA or trade)
3. bring in a top-6 winger (UFA or trade or hope Silverberg/Stone/Zbad work out or live with Foligno in top 6)
4. trade away Butler and Regin (maybe in trade #2/#3 above, or for draft picks)

What do you think we need?

If you'll humor my assessment above, here's what's out there on the UFA market

What's available on July 1? Not a lot:

1. about 10 defenseman playing top pairing minutes (half of which are older than 32, i.e. on downside)
2. about 14 forwards that could be called top-6 (again, half of which are old, and one is Wellwood! but one old one is Jagr, so we'll call that a wash)

What's a realistic expectation:

• Re-signings: RFA Foligno, RFA JOB are no-brainers; UFAs Kuba and Carkner will test the market but could be back.
• UFA signings:

1. Good day: Bmur overpays, we get one UFA D or F - assuming we overpay average amount, 30 teams, 24 target players, other teams may have other criteria which means their pool doesn't entirely overlap)
2. Disappointing day: Bmur plays it safe and we get a low end D.

What's the plan of attack for Canada Day:

1. Now - Offer to Kuba
2. Now - 2-way offer to Carkner
3. July 1 - Put our hat in the ring for Ryan Suter
4. July 1 - Put our hat in the ring for Zach Parise
5. July 1 - Put our hat in the ring for Justin Schultz
6. July 1 - Make an offer to Bryan Allen
7. July 1 - Make an offer to Matt Carle
8. July 1 - Make an offer to Dennis Wideman
9. July 1 - Make an offer to Shane Doan
10. If none of these guys on D work out, start looking for a trade and secondary UFAs that are better than Borowiecki
11. Crack a beer and tell your buddies how good prospect X is going to look in training camp.

What's the likely outcome?

• Best case

1. We sign Ryan Suter and Justin Schultz on D
2. We sign Parise up front (and Alfie sticks around :) )

• Worst case

1. Kuba and Carkner sign elsewhere
2. We sign a low end UFA D like Gilroy
3. No top-6 F help from the UFA pool, and Alfie retires :(

• Likely case

1. We'll sign UFA D that can pair up with Phillips in the second pairing
2. Carkner is convinced to come back as #7 D
3. Gonchar plays with a rookie D on 3rd pairing and PP time with Karlsson
4. no top-6 forward UFA signed, we go with a rotation of Silfverberg/Stone/Regin (fans lose patience during the season, finally Bmur does as well towards the trade deadline and makes a deal for a top-6 guy... but i'm getting ahead of myself!)

Mitigation plan

1. Marginal players that can fill in for last pairing D are always available (There's always Matt Walker from Chicago :), and can be had later in the summer on a 2-way deal
2. Our own D prospects are probably almost as good as #1, but good to have some marginal veterans signed to smooth out the growing-pains bumps with the prospects as they get used to the big league.
3. If Alfie retires sign Shane Doan!

I wrote this all down in note form, and the weather is too nice outside to spend more time on it. If anyone feels like massaging this into something more reader friendly feel free to edit it! (Besides I'm an engineer so you probably don't want to read anything that I write up in full anyhow - I'll just have the same info and be longer, not more interesting!).
In any case, I just wanted to fire up the optimism again, since the draft left me feeling blah.