Silver Nuggets: Can the Senators win the Northeast division?
by Adnan on Mar 1, 2012 12:59 PM EST
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Realistically, the Ottawa Senators will not win the division. But let's take a look anyway at their chances. Ottawa has 76 points in 65 games while Boston has 77 points in 61 games. The Bruins are on an 82 points pace had they played 65 games.
So essentially, Ottawa has to erase a 6-point deficit in 17 games. Ottawa is 34-23-8 while Boston would be 39-22-4 (if they go 2-1-1 in their extra games). The Senators would have 29 non-shootout wins and Boston would have 32 if their two wins are not in a shootout. Assuming Ottawa erases the six points deficit exactly by winning three more games, they would have the same number of non-shootout wins and thus it would go to the head-to-head tiebreaker, which Boston would win.
Practically speaking, Ottawa has to outright pass Boston to win the division. For Ottawa to have a realistic chance, the Bruins would have to continue to struggle as they are right now. They went 5-7-1 in February and were shutout an incredible five times in their 13 games. They have 17 games in March, including three sets of games on back-to-back nights and only once do they have more than one day off between games.
Both teams play their final four games on the same days in April, including a visit to Ottawa by Boston in the second last game of the season. If the Senators are still only a point back at the end of March, then they control their own destiny for winning the division by winning out in April.
What would this require? Ottawa's schedule in March are home games against Chicago, New York Rangers, Buffalo, Montréal, Toronto, New Jersey, Pittsburgh while they also visit Florida, Tampa Bay, Montréal (twice), Winnipeg and Philadelphia. If they can manage to go 8-4-1 in that stretch and Boston goes 8-8-1 in their brutal month, then the Senators only earn the chance to win the division by beating Boston at home and matching the other results.
A lot of things have to go right for Ottawa, they have to have a very strong March, hope the Bruins struggle due to their busy schedule, and then Ottawa still has to beat the Bruins in April. According to Sports Club Stats, the Senators have a 3% chance at winning the division.
Links after the jump. Warning: They are mostly about Erik Karlsson.
Here are today's links:
Sens News
- Lines in practise today were: 1) Michalek-Spezza-Butler, 2) Greening-Turris-Alfredsson, 3) Foligno-O'Brien-Neil, 4) Konopka-Smith-Condra. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- The defensive pairings were: 1) Kuba-Karlsson, 2) Cowen - Gonchar, 3) Phillips - Gilroy. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- Cyril Leeder cries poor about the government of Ontario potentially taking away corporate tax credits for companies that spend money on entertainment such as Senators games. It's such a negligible amount that to claim it would put the Ottawa Senators out of business is a bit far fetched. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Robin Lehner and Ben Bishop have both had strong performances in Ottawa and Binghamton recently. (Senators Extra)
- Laurie writes an excellent article comparing Erik Karlsson to other elite defencemen in hockey history. (Silver Seven FanPost)
- Greg Wyshynski weighs in on the Karlsson for Norris debate, with Karlsson not ranking in Wyshysnki's top four due to his perceived defensive struggles. (Yahoo!)
- Karlsson did rank first in Norris voting among a combined poll of 11 hockey writers from USA today and other newspapers. Jason Spezza was sixth in the Hart Trophy vote. (USA Today)
- Karlsson won the NHL's second star for February after scoring 7 goals and 11 assists for 18 points in February. (NHL)
- Ken Warren is wary of signing Karlsson to a super long contract, preferring to pay more for around five years than to lower the cap hit but commit for ten years. (Senators Extra)
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I was going to but...
I already ranted so much. :(
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
The real question for me is, if we win the division do we avoid playing Boston?
If we don’t, there’s no incentive as far as I’m concerned.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Lead the charge, finish 6th, play the SE winner!
Here is the way I look at it. Boston, I believe, has the best chance in the Eastern Conference of reaching the Stanley Cup final. That means to me, in order for this team to go on an improbable Stanley Cup Final series, we will have to play Boston at some point. Personally, I believe the best chance of beating the Bruins is in the first round, before the wear, tear & grind of the playoffs catches up to you. Before you’ve had to play 2 other tough playoff series. So I say, bring on the Bruins. Stanley Cup Final, here we come!
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I would disagree.
I think the best chance to beat Boston is later in the playoffs, once their physical style has taking a pounding on them. Our game is a skill game that can continue to function. If they’re already beat up from beating on other teams, you would hope that would wear them down.
But who knows. Frankly, I’d prefer for another team to take Boston out of the equation entirely :)
But which team is going to physically punish them?
I think the chances of Boston being really beat up by the time we might play them in a Conference final are slim. Not to say they wouldn’t be more banged up and tired, but so would we. So you have to hope that you’re less so than they are.
The problem with not playing them is that you exert so much effort to get to them playing other good teams, then you’re beat down & you still have to play them. I’d rather start with the toughest first and get them out of the way…
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Philly?
They’re one spot out of facing Boston right now.
by B_T on Mar 1, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think Philly is as physical as they used to be
Or any more physical than us for that matter. But for Boston/Philly hookup, Philly would have to take a leaf slump.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I was going with us not winning the division
As the odds of that happening are miniscule as expressed in the write up.
A lot of things have to go right for Ottawa, they have to have a very strong March, hope the Bruins struggle due to their busy schedule, and then Ottawa still has to beat the Bruins in April. According to Sports Club Stats, the Senators have a 3% chance at winning the division.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
fair enough
but between the “miniscule” chance of Ottawa continuing their strong play as their schedule eases up, Boston continuing to struggle, and the fact that Philadelphia is only one point above the 7th place New Jersey with the same number of games played. I’d say the chances of Boston and Philadelphia facing each other in the first round are as good as any.
So you're saying it's possible.
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Mar 1, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
NJ is 1 point behind them, even in games played and they play each other 2 more times
So it wouldn’t take much for the Devils to pass them – win those 2 games and stay otherwise even. The bigger risk is both of them catching Ottawa.
And I’d agree Philly isn’t as physical as they used to be, but they’re still more physical than the other options.
by B_T on Mar 1, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah. I think it's all moot in the end.
I still hope we don’t beat them, but your point is well taken.
you know what's funny
listening to HNIC Radio yesterday, Glenn Healey talked about Ottawa’s style as being physical and in your face. I hadn’t really thought about us that way but Michalek is a pretty hard forechecker; Foligno, Condra, Daugavins, Zsmith, Neil, (whoever else i’m forgetting) are all very physical, along-the-boards players. they give no quarter. Maybe we’re tougher than we think…?
Funnily enough, someone mentioned an article where the Toronto media called us that
And said Toronto was softer than us. I always figured Toronto was tougher, given the D corps they’ve built. So I have no idea. I don’t think we’re tough by any stretch, but we’ve got a physical edge to our game?
Ottawa has always had this 'soft' perception... especially in the early '00's
However, I don’t know that we’re so tough. It is more that MacLeans system is for a gritty, hard game, finish checks & forecheck. Then we have players like Greening, Condra, Daugavins & Foligno that work hard in the corners every single shift, and then we have players like Neil, Konopka, Smilth, Carkner who are intimidating. Not to mention that Cowen can push almost anyone off the puck with the exception of Chara…
So it is a big, physical, intimidating style of game.
I think we’re probably the team with the best chance of actually beating Boston, because I think we’re the only team that can play Boston’s game as effectively as they can.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
The grass is always greener on the other side syndrome.
And that’s fine, because we want our opponents to be psyched out: we are tough, quick offensive transition, unpredictable. I don’t think Boston will win the cup again. It’s gonna be the year of the underdog, not dragon. If we win the last game against Boston, we’ll be in their heads.
"unpredictable"
yeah – we’ll either run and gun you, grind out a win, or fail to generate any offense and lose.
I think ottawa is one of the toughest teams in the east, and I think it’s pretty evident we’re one of the teams that are not intimidated by the bruins. I’d throw the rangers in that conversation too with the style they play and some of the bodies they have.
by John_9664 on Mar 2, 2012 6:14 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Home ice advantage?
I mean, at the very least that’s potential for more gate revenue in Ottawa.
by B_T on Mar 1, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I think we only play four games against Boston regardless of who has home ice
:(
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Realistic or pessimistic?
I never look at the glass as half empty or half full. It is always full. Air is matter & occupies half the glass. Therefore the glass is never empty!
So it doesn’t matter if we play Boston & play 4, 5, 6 or 7 games. What matters is the lessons learned from the defeat or the victory & applying those lessons at the next opportunity.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
we've been competitive against them a few games now
maybe we’ve only won one but i don’t see us rolling over for these guys.
We get the money quicker!
Time value of money!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If we don’t, there’s no incentive as far as I’m concerned.
An extra home game and starting the series off in Ottawa isn’t incentive? Agree to disagree, sir.
Drew Brees- the REAL MVP.
If it's a sweep, there's no extra home game, unfortunately
Mark believes it would be a sweep… :(
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by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 1, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Saw that after I posted.
I think if the series starts in Ottawa, there’s a much lower chance of that happening. If we play in Boston games 1 & 2, a sweep becomes more likely.
Drew Brees- the REAL MVP.
As I mentioned in a FanPost I did awhile back, I think a lot of these teams that have games in hand are going to have a rough go in March with all the games that need to be played. Ottawa is through their tough part of their schedule. Now everyone else has to play the crappy parts of theirs. The Sens schedule isn’t too bad, they have lots of games left against the lower half of the Eastern conference, I think it’s entirely possible this team could surge down the stretch.
Cyril Leeder was on Team1200 this morning
He said revenue impact to the club if the tax write off is revoked is estimated @ $8 – $15 million.
How accurate this amount is, I believe is certainly up for debate. I think this is more a case of the team executives crying foul & fear mongering about the team folding in hopes of generating enough public discord that the bill gets pulled.
Should the deal go through, there will certainly be an immediate impact to the club, with a full $8million(?) hit in the first year. However, as the team marketing genuises work their magic & the team salespeople pull their strings they will eventually bring corporate season ticket sales back into the fold. They’ve already started down this path by selling game packs. They may just need to do the same thing for suites. In a couple years from now it will be a non-issue.
We already know based on reports from last year, that in the current economic climate with the current level of season ticket sales – the team needs to make the second round of the playoffs before it makes money. If this deal goes through, I guess the pressure will be on the Murray’s to get the team to the 3rd round.
It will certainly make it tougher for the team to make $ if this deal goes through. However, It won’t force the Senators out of town.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
with the team's current low cap hit, surely they don't still need 2nd round to make profit?
I thought that was based on the previous Senators with a maxed-out cap. Given the much lower payroll, can’t they be profitable with just making the playoffs?
Co-manager, Silver Seven
That would be my argument
I just went from rough memory, without actually researching the articles that were written a year ago. (I think I recall a figure of $14million loss last season)
My point was however, the Senators just have to make the playoffs and go deeper than they had to before in order to make sure the team stays in Ottawa.
That, and the front office staff will have to step up their ticket selling game.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
He's lying
At 50% write-off and a tax rate between 11.5% and scheduled to go to 10%, the government pays between 5.75% of the tickets cost and 5% in the future.
Even if all the businesses would cancel if it cost them 5% more, the Senators could simply lower the corporate suite prices by 5% and only see a negligible change.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think you're missing Leeder's point
If there is no tax exemption benefit for companies, Leeder fears they will simply stop buying the tickets. And if 50 per cent of season ticket holders are companies that take advantage of the tax exemption, then that’s a pretty serious dent in the team’s overall ticket income.
Still, it’s a pretty specious argument. Not all of the 50 per cent of the season ticket holders would cancel their season tickets if the province axed the tax exemption, and the team would benefit from the lower overall tax rate.
A savings of $15M for the province is pretty miniscule, but it’s pretty mysterious that the province would be subsidizing sports teams. I’d be interested in hearing whether or not other provinces have a similar entertainment-related tax exemption.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 1, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
No I understand it perfectly
He’s saying that because because company x will have to pay $1000 for a suite instead of $950, the Sens are going to lose the entire $1000.
My point is that if the Sens just reduce the price to $950 instead, there is no difference to companies. The Sens have to swallow a bit of it, but they are losing 5%, not the entire sum.
There is no way they are losing $8 million from this.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
$8 million is equavilent to close to $200K per game. That's a lot
I think Leeder is exaggerating the dollar a bit. The total cost to the province was $15 million. How much of that related to the Sens? Less than $1 million? Will tickets to Sens games drop by $200k per game?
It's not just ticket sales though, there's also concession.
I don’t know Ottawa’s pricing, but a 6 pack of beer in an Oilers’ box is between 30-40 dollars. They price things through the roof because they know companies will pay and just write it off. If you add up the money they bring in, that’s a lot of seats you have to sell to make up the difference.
by Pmoron on Mar 2, 2012 9:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think I like the new D pairing of Phillips and Gilroy, if only because it makes it easy to nickname the pairing Philroy.
Coyotes/Goalies
Have you ever noticed how Phoenix seems to be the place for middling goaltenders to play well? Remember when Brian Boucher set the shutout streak record? When Bryzgalov went from waiver fodder to leading the Coyotes to the playoffs. Now you have Mike Smith who was a bum in Tampa getting first star of the month there.
Tippet & his system
Glad it didn’t work for Turris!
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Bryzgalov was great pre-Tippett
He went on the waiver wire because Anaheim also had Giguere and Hiller.
I figured it was a good way for people who thought it might be too much Karlsson to just skip the section. ;)
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
This whole "Erik Karlsson is no good at defense" sentiment is really starting to bother me.
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Mar 1, 2012 1:36 PM EST reply actions
Agreed.
But then again, the media has a narrative built up already for players and just changes names around. Russians are “lazy” and “enigmatic,” Canadians are “hard working” and just need a chance to “break out of the funk.” Karlsson has been given this moniker because they can’t comprehend that his offensive game can be strong and his defensive game can also be sound.
Also, prior to this season, he has been a bit of a defensive liability
That reputation unfortunately preceeds him.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
i think that's part of it for sure
he’s really become very smart defensively i find. makes good decisions in our end, angles players well, etc. no bone-crushing hits from him, but he doesn’t really need to.
It's ironic
the same thing that’s forcing Karlsson into the Norris conversation is what’s probably going to prevent him from winning it.
They just assume that since he’s got 23 points on the next guy that he must be terrible defensively. Idiotic. How can you be a defensive liability when you’re getting your team goals all the time? All this talk about how his improved +/- is more of an indication of his team’s overall play is misleading too. I’d say his -30 last year was more to do with the overall team than his play. His +15 this year is mostly his doing. Let’s not forget the huge impact he’s had on this team’s success.
I think its also the BS "he doesnt kill penalties" argument
I dont think he is kept off the penalty kill necessarily because he is bad defensively, but more that he is so gifted offensively, why would you put him in a position where his offensive instincts are not really called for? playing hard defensive minutes is not good asset management for such an offensively talented player. the fact that this is used against him smacks of grasping at straws.
Did anyone notice the SBN story headline on the right margin?
“Ron Wilson, Brian Burke Unphased by Toronto Maple Leafs Faithful”
That’s hilarious, looks like someone that should be found in The Onion. Guess someone forgot to tell them that the NHL was an entertainment product. Burke and Wilson were obviously infected by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund folks before they sold the team.
Speaking of the other team
With their loss in regulation yesterday to the Blackhawks, they remain four points out of a play-off spot and in 10th place, with 18 games remaining.
The Jets have an opportunity to widen that gap to six points with a victory over the Panthers tonight (although the team to which I refer shall then have two games in hand on said Jets). Furthermore, the Capitals, Sabres, and Lightning all have a game in hand on this particular team, and the Sabres play tonight, while the Caps and Bolts play tomorrow (fortunately, not against each other). Keep your fingers, crossed, folks, as this could mean that by the end of the night tomorrow evening, that other team could drop to 12th place and up to eight points out of a play-off spot.
someone pointed this out:
If the the Panthers and Jets make the playoffs this year, then 30 teams will have made the playoffs since the lock out. None of them are the Maple Leafs.
yep - this point was made several times on HNIC Radio yesterday
not too many people who are saying that Wilson should keep his job, even if they do manage to make the playoffs. Even Damien Cox – a self-avowed Wilson fan – admitted he should probably be gone. I don’t understand how he’s stuck it out this long.
In a 30 team league, that's a statement
God, this may be the favourite thing I’ve read all year
Don't want them to drop too far
Makes the perennial 9th place finish that much less likely.
by B_T on Mar 1, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Emery start tomorrow in Ottawa
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I hope people don't boo him...
I always liked Emery, even when the shit was hitting the fan.
But, Sens fans probably will boo him, which will piss me off in the comfort of my TV room.
He was young, stupid and newly rich. Can’t blame him for living like a rock star. Boo guys like Heatley, Yashin and Redden (the latter two, obviously won’t happen again) but not Emery.
ALFIE! ALFIE! ALFIE!
They still boo Yashin.
I was at the Caps game and they showed the Sens all time leading scorers, and when Yashin showed up, there was a huge chorus of boos.
The biggest boo-ing was for Heatley though. That was fun.
I don't think he'll be booed
In fact, I’d be very surprised if he was. I don’t think fans ever stopped liking him, and our general disposition is pretty happy right now. I think he’ll get a decent applause, as a matter of fact.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 1, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I hope you're right, Peter...
I mean, he WAS a pretty integral part of our cup run, so we should be thankful for that, regardless of the shit storm we were treated to for the next 12 months.
ALFIE! ALFIE! ALFIE!
The reason why I don't see the shit-storm leading to Emery heckling...
… is that Emery had little to do with the shit-storm. It was more the fault of Martin Gerber and his persistent bullshit, John Paddock’s ineffective coaching and management style, and a team that got lost in their own accomplishments and forgot that they had to play.
Emery was just
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by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 2, 2012 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
Even Brian Elliott got modest applause upon his return in February.
Given how much more Emery did for the team, I’d imagine that his reception may even be considered warm.
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Mar 1, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Why are we hating on Redden now? He left as a free agent and has had to deal with the burden of being in the minors even though he doesn’t deserve to be. I feel bad for the guy, Sather is the one that paid him too much, yet Redden is the one dealing with the repercussions.
I hate on ANY player that says they're here for "the team"...
And then refuses to waive a no-trade clause that would help “the team.”
He could still have chased the money in July, and brought back some major assets by waiving. I mean, I understand that it’s his right to do so, and the GM’s fault for agreeing to a NTC, but I still don’t agree with it. The team wasn’t going anywhere that year, we all knew it, he knew it… and yet he still said he wanted to be a part of the team in interviews, only to bolt in July for big money.
I just see it as selfish, and I don’t like players who are selfish. We’re only talking about a couple months, and he could have won a cup during those months. Instead, he played out his time here and chased the Benjamins.
ALFIE! ALFIE! ALFIE!
Off Topic
Anybody catch the article in the sun about Lehner?
The headline on the front page was “Lehn-sanity”….
me thinks the Sun has been poking around here and stealing stuff from user comments lol
Well, it was trending on Twitter...
So it’s not like it was our idea to steal, anyway. It’s just one of those things that goes viral.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 1, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
yup - Jeff Marek mentioned it trending on twitter after the win
so, does that mean S7S is stealing stuff from the interweb?
No, I think it mostly means that intellectual property is a pretty tough thing to keep track of on the Internet.
Silver Seven | Twitter | Facebook | E-mail | eBay
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 2, 2012 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
Just wanted to throw a jab at the sun while it was available.
by John_9664 on Mar 2, 2012 5:56 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I am so happy
The Sens will make the playoffs, and there were no major moves. We have a great product, and tons of equity to back it up. I have tons of suggestions as to what we should do in the off season, but no real way to back it up with any real hockey sense. I am sure I will be able to see it happen, and read about it here. Thanks for that everyone.
At least Dalton isn't making the Sens foot the whole bill for the new OC Transpo on-ramp... OR IS HE??
I’m getting very tired of all this. x.x
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
I think it's mostly the city
Although the province would obviously have to kick in their permission, or perhaps some funds.
As for the potential lost revenue, I find the threats pretty hard to swallow. We’re talking about $8M in lost revenue? If that’s the make-or-break margin for Ottawa, I’m not sure how the team managed to stay afloat last year and the year before—when their salary expenses were $5M more than they are this season.
Adnan mentioned it above, but there’s little possibility that an end to the subsidy would result in an $8M in reduced revenue to the Senators organization. Leeder was just raising a stink because right now the team’s benefitting from a government subsidy, and he doesn’t want that to end. Personally, I’m not really interested in having my tax dollars subsidize professional sports teams, no matter how much I love those teams.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 2, 2012 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
I'm more willing to have my miniscule tax dollars do that than many other things.
Then again, the paltry sum that I make and that tiny percentage that both levels of government acquire from me could barely fund a handful of sticks for Jason Spezza.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
No way will the Sens win the division.
Doesn’t matter though, it’s all about lining up to get a shot at florida in the first round.
Wasnèt sure where to put this
But this is pretty hilarious: http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/1/the-force-is-strong-with-this-one
by StraightFromTHM on Mar 2, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions
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