The Noon Number: 154

by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 12:02 PM EST in Ottawa Senators Noon Number

Erik Karlsson's been the straw stirring the drink for the Ottawa Senators, powering the Senators' blue line to a league-high 154 points. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

154 - Points scored by Ottawa Senators defencemen, which is the most any NHL team has received from the blue line so far this season.

Leading the way for the Senators is obviously Erik Karlsson, with 57P (12G, 45A). The team's point totals include 29G and 125A, with five defencemen with 14P or more: Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar (2G, 29A), Filip Kuba (5G, 17A), Chris Phillips (3G, 13A), and Jared Cowen (4G, 10A).

The next closest team to the Senators in points from the blue line are, unsurprisingly, the Vancouver Canucks, with 136P (30G, 106A) and led by Alexander Edler's 39-point (7G, 32A) season. Surprisingly high, though, are the Toronto Maple Leafs, who come in third with 132P, driven in large part by Dion Phaneuf's strong 34-point (9G, 25A) season. Rounding out the top five are the Nashville Predators (125P) and the Detroit Red Wings (122P).

At the bottom of the standings? The Minnesota Wild, who've received just 68P from their defenders. Not surprisingly, they're near the bottom of the league (29th overall) in goals scored this season. The New Jersey Devils have just 78P from the blue line, and the New York Islanders have 79P.

When Bryan Murray signed Sergei Gonchar the summer before last, he said it was because he wanted his defence to generate offence, not just prevent it. There's no doubt that Ottawa's blue line is providing more than their fair share of points.

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Since I'm sure someone will bring it up

The difference between the 154 here and the 150 on NHL.com (and in yesterday’s game broadcast) is the 4 points Rundblad had before being traded.

by B_T on Feb 21, 2012 12:25 PM EST reply actions

Will not trade defence!

I do not see us trading anyone on D. Maybe Lee, because he could be replaced by Carkner short term and because if we get a 2nd round pick for him, that would be awesome, but Lee is performing well in his role and he may be doing what he does for us for next 10 years :) You do not see Red Wings trading their players away when they are in play off position…
Why would you trade Kuba or Gonchar (NTC) now that we are in the playoff position. Sure, getting 2nd rounder is great, but it is not free, we would have to give up experience and point production. Gonchar is old and slow (at least in NHL terms), but even he would have to be replaced on the blue line, so Mr Murray will not subtract from our blue line this time and trading 4th line winger for 7th/8th Defender does not make sense either, since we probably rather recall Mark Borowiecki to fill that gap if there is one.
Good to have healthy team, even better to have winning one :)

I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.

by TaBu on Feb 21, 2012 12:30 PM EST reply actions

You trade Kuba or Gonchar because you get a good return for them

Gonchar has another year left, but Kuba’s contract is up this season. If the widely held belief that he won’t be resigned holds true, better to trade him now for something that will help us in future seasons.

It’s worth taking offers on players that are in their last year with the team. In the same way you don’t trade your up-and-comers for a rental when you’re a dark horse contender, you should also be looking at trading away the players that are basically rentals at this point anyways.

by B_T on Feb 21, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

You trade Kuba or Gonchar IF you get a GREAT return for them

And that’s the only reason you’d do so, in my opinion.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

rebuild as planned!

You trade them because the rebuild plan is still in full swing an if we make the playoffs it should be counted as an aded bonus only. Get something for them instead of keeping them for a playoff run that doesn’t matter. Especially considering younger guys can get experience in the playoffs this year playing instead of sitting on the bench watching someone play who won’t mean anything after the rebuild is done.

by Canuck Abroad on Feb 21, 2012 1:11 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

Well, let's not go that far...

There isn’t any such thing as a playoff run that doesn’t matter. For one thing, the regular season isn’t relevant once you’re in the playoffs; teams finishing in the lower half of the standings have made serious waves in the playoffs. Everything starts over in the post-season.

Second of ly, the Senators have lots of young players, and the excitement and emotion that comes with a playoff run—no matter how short that run might be—feeds into a winning attitude on the team. The post-season rush can’t be replicated outside of the playoffs, and experiencing it will just whet the appetite of Ottawa’s young players and make them even hungrier for more of it.

So no, you don’t quite approach this as rebuild-as-planned, and the playoffs are never just an added bonus.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

It isn't that far...

Obviously the trade would have to be valuable to do it, but what I am saying is that the expectations were not there this year and we (probably) won’t make the finals.

The plan was that over the next 3 yrs, to build a team that could push the finals for multiple years and win the cup…

So do you continue with the 3 year plan and continue to rebuild the team (getting rid of older players and replacing them with new ones) or do you keep a player that can walk away for free in july and lose any value he has?

Smartest answer is to trade him even if it is just for a 2nd round pick, because the experience a younger player would get from playing even 3rd pair minutes is worth more then losing a player for nothing.

My comments that the playoffs are a bonus, is exactly that… When you set a plan in motion to rebuild and don’t expect to make a real push in the playoffs for a couple years, but then do make the playoffs you don’t change the plan. Changing the plan will just hinder your future opportunities and hurt the team you are trying to build.

So I say trade Kuba or even Gonchar. Yes, it may hurt us this year but it will make us better for years to come…

by Canuck Abroad on Feb 21, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

I'm saying your question is moot

Because the value a second-round pick offers isn’t necessarily as great as the value of Filip Kuba during a post-season run.

Retaining Kuba for the playoffs isn’t going to put the kibosh on our rebuild. Trading him right now might put the kibosh on our playoff run. That’s what I’m saying.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

experience for him or experience for a younger player

If we make the playoffs, it is better for our prospect to get the experience than the player who is going to take that with him when he leaves.
I am interested to see what kuba’s Corsi rating because his point totals are good but with many other defenceman pullin the same amount of points as kuba offensively we wouldn’t miss him IMO. I wonder if other than blocked shots if down te stretch we would truly miss him.

So again obviously I wouldn’t give him away but I would rather get something than just let him walk when IMO we can make the playoffs without him. Guess that is the real question here… Who thinks we could make te playoffs without him? I do.

by Canuck Abroad on Feb 21, 2012 5:12 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

I've said this all season, when it comes to the playoff, you want

all your d’men on board and this includes Kuba & Gonchar. Some teams bulk up their d for the playoff runs instead of shedding d’men. The players play 82 games with one goal only, to make the playoff. You can’t turn around & tell them to play with less talent than the regular season because it’s a rebuild year. Every playoff run must be taken very seriously. You never know.

by whatsinaname on Feb 21, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed. I'd be okay with us staying the course and keeping everyone.

All we need is one injury and suddenly we’re calling up Boro and Wier etc to help us out. Nothing against them, but they’ve played < 5 NHL games between them IIRC.

by The Tif on Feb 21, 2012 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

Kuba has a Corsi relative of 1.8, one of only two Senators defencemen to be positive. Karlsson is of course first at +13.8

Kuba also plays the toughest competition along with Karlsson.

I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
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by Adnan on Feb 21, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

I'd trade Gonchar for a good return

I would prefer to use his cap hit on a younger player, personally.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 21, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

And in the playoffs when powerplay performance is that much more important, what then?

He’s certainly not untouchable, but I’m less reluctant to trade Gonchar at this deadline than Kuba, mostly because even if we don’t trade him now we’ll still have ample opportunity to trade him for something of value moving forward, whether during the off-season or next year’s trade deadline. Kuba, though, it’s now or nothing (or re-sign him, which doesn’t seem likely).

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

Not going to get a "GOOD" return

Kuba and / or Gonchar are not going to give a “GOOD” return. The best we’ll get will be a 3rd rounder for Kuba and a 5th or 6th for Gonchar. It’s dreaming to think we’d get anything better than that.

Gonchar is easily replaced because of the defensive negatives he brings. In the games that I have watched, Gonchar has not been the linchpin for anything on the PP, and has cost us defensively. It’s much safer with Kuba, Cowen or even Phillips on PP with Karlsson. If we can get anything in return for Ginchar, I say go for it.

Kuba is not easily replaced. He is the best of our suspect collection of defensive dmen. IMO he should be reupped for one year even if it involves overpayment. We need time to develop our defensive prospects and to draft a couple more dmen prospects this year.

by Marvellous on Feb 21, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

I think you're severely underestimating the market for defencemen right now

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Adding to Peter: Did you see what Gill got? You don't think Gonchar and Kuba are worth at least that?

by The Tif on Feb 21, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

I definitely don't think that Kuba is worth that

But only because of his relative value to the team. A 2nd and 3rd is more than fair value for a defenseman with Kuba’s weak resume over the last three years—but it’s Kuba’s play that’s letting Karlsson be awesome this year. That’s worth more than a 2nd and 3rd to me.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 22, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Also...

When you’re on the PP, you’re not looking for ‘safe.’ You’re looking for production, and Gonchar has more powerplay points than any other defenceman save Karlsson—far more than Cowen or Phillips, and nearly 50% more than Kuba.

Also, the Senators have only allowed six short-handed goals against (and I’m not even sure how many of those Gonchar was on the ice for), so I don’t think Gonchar’s “defensive negatives” are relevant to the PP discussion.

We’re not in a position to accept ‘or best offer’ offers for Gonchar. Could he be better? Absolutely. But he’s still an important part of the blue line.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 21, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

That's good question

I guess I’d ask just how significant Gonchar is to our powerplay these days. He’s already been replaced on the top unit by Filip Kuba. Of his five assists in February so far, only two are on the PP. He has one PPG for the year, and that was back in November.

My feeling is that Gonchar isn’t integral to the power play at this point. I actually believe that Cowen would perform as well if given the same minutes, and Alfie is also a viable 2nd unit PP quarterback.

Obviously I’m not saying we should dump him, but if I were the GM, it wouldn’t take a great offer for me to move him; merely a good one.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 22, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Oh yeah

I’m not saying go all fire-sale with them.

Though I’d take a good return if it’s a piece that fits into the rebuild plan (assuming the outgoing player does not), and not hold out for a GREAT deal.

by B_T on Feb 21, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions