The Noon Number: 32.96

by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 17, 2012 12:01 PM EST in Ottawa Senators Noon Number

32.96 - The percentage of shots Jason Spezza takes (not including blocked shots) that miss the net, among the worst on the Ottawa Senators team.

Spezza has had 179 shots on net this season, and he's taken an extra 88 shots that went wide.

For the sake of comparison, Daniel Alfredsson has missed the net on just 25.2 per cent of non-blocked shots taken; he's fired 139 shots at the net, and had just 47 that went wide. Kyle Turris is the best on the Sens at hitting the net with regularity: He's missed with just 17.02 per cent of non-blocked shots taken, missing the net 16 times compared to 78 that have been fired at the net.

Zack Smith (36.07, obviously doesn't give a crap about hitting the net), Matt Carkner (40 per cent, but he's only got 20 non-blocked shots this season), and Brian Lee (56.67 per cent, which hilariously means that Lee misses the net more often than he hits it) are the only regulars with a worse missed-shots percentage.

If Spezza hit the net with the Turris' regularity, and maintained his current shooting percentage (14 per cent), he'd have 31 goals this season, instead of the 25 he has in reality. That's simply an abstraction based on current numbers, but it underlines an undeniable truth: Shots only matter when they hit the net, and if you hit the net more, you score more.

Spezza's having a terrific season, of that there is no doubt. But when he finds himself in a shooting position, he needs to find a way to hit the net.

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Ha, Z. Smith

That’s awful.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 17, 2012 12:21 PM EST reply actions

Is it panic with the puck?

Or rushing your shots? Pressure by the other team? All of the above?

I’ve always wondered why so many shots go wide or high. I mean, these guys are NHL players… they shouldn’t miss the net as often as they do. And I’m not just talking about Spezza or the Sens; I mean, all across the league, dudes are missing the net by huge margins. I don’t get it.

ALFIE! ALFIE! ALFIE!

by BigSlice on Feb 17, 2012 12:26 PM EST reply actions

I think it just illustrates how hard it is to create a scoring chance in the NHL

My feeling is that when these guys get a clean look at the net, most of them can hit it. But how often do you get a clean look at the net? Most of the time you’re trying to shoot around some fatass defenseman or through a crowd. If you’re coming down the win, the goalie’s angle cuts off most of your shooting area and you’re forced to aim high or wide because that’s the only open space.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 17, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's just overcomplicating things

One thing about Spezza is he never panics with the puck, so I don’t think that’s it.

I think the problem is that he’s trying to pick spots on the net so heavily that he ends up missing. Whereas another forward might fire it for a general area (blocker side, glove side, top of net, down low), Spezza might be trying the hardest shots: Picking off corners, off the crossbar and in, and so on. If you’re aiming for the edges of the net, you’re going to miss more often.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 17, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's just everything combined with the speed of the game

If you put Spezza in an accuracy shooting competition, he’s one of the best in the league, but when you’re moving so fast and you need the puck off your stick in a matter of seconds, it gets much more difficult. Another thing is that I think Spezza usually shoots to score, rather than create rebounds, meaning he’s always gunning for the top corners. I noticed Smith misses a LOT thoug

by Kangfish on Feb 17, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

No puck panic

Spezza is always trying to make the perfect shot. When you are shooting for corners and just inside the post or from crazy angles like Spezz does, you are bound to miss the net more often. I bet if they kept stats, Spezz would lead the team in goals scored within 4 inches of a post or crossbar. Non scorers are just happy to get it on net. Those are usually stopped by the jersy logo of the goalie. Spezz forces saves, there is a tradeoff to that.

by Drockidy on Feb 17, 2012 12:35 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

THIS ^

by Senator26 on Feb 17, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I think there’s no problem here. Especially not right now when he’s actually hitting the net (as opposed to that 7 game slump.

He was once called the worst participant Cirque du Soleil ever had.

by RogerTheShrubber on Feb 17, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

Well, I think there is a problem

It’s not the end of the world, but the problem is that Spezza doesn’t hit the net often enough, and the solution is to stop waiting for the ‘perfect shot’ and start taking good and great shots when they’re available.

Spezza’s shooting percentage isn’t particularly stellar, after all. It’s not bad (third on the team), but it’s not so good that it shows he’s a much better shooter, even if he does spend a lot of time waiting for the perfect shot.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 17, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

Turris has a scoring % of 7.2

Their overall scoring/shot attempted & are:. Spezza – 9.36 and Turris – 4.25. Alfie is still king in this category.
There is clearly a balance here, and although Spezza is doing better than Turris, maybe he should aim an inch closer to the middle of the net. To come to anything conclusive I think you would need to look at the type of shots attempted and where on the ice they were taken. Other boring factors are the attention they get as shooters, PP vs even shots, linemates, etc.

It’s interesting how the stats show different styles of play though – great noon number

by BD Rebuilders on Feb 17, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Plus 1

This stat reminds me of a few years ago when people were always point to the fact that he had the highest goals per shot ratio on the team, but not very many shots. So then they’d make straight line projections (if he shot twice as much, he’d score twice as much). That wasn’t very logical, as he had such a high scoring percentage because he was such a pass first guy, so he only shot when it was unbelievably good or there was no pass to take. If he shot more, the quality of his chances would be lower.

This is exactly the same. If he aimed a little less at the posts and crossbar, his scoring percentage would go down.

by OttawaWendy on Feb 17, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions

His shooting percentage would probably go down, yes

But his number of goals would likely go up. Taking ten shots and scoring two goals is better than taking one shot and scoring one goal.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 17, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

That Brian Lee stat is pretty awesome.

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by DarrenM on Feb 17, 2012 12:42 PM EST reply actions

Ridiculous

But in his defence, I think he tries the off-the-back-boards pass fairly regularly. And I’m not going to complain too much, because the one thing I’ve been demanding from Lee is that he play a simple game. He can let the forwards take the shots on net, as long as he keeps the puck in.

Still… not even 50-50?

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 17, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

These noon numbers are like a box of chocolates..

You never know what number you’re going to get!
No seriously, I love this new thing on this site!
Spezza needs to shoot more obviously xD
(Z. Smith…really? D:)

by senatorsman1200 on Feb 17, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions

I'm glad you like them!

They usually take a bit of work to find an interesting one, but they’re fun to work on, too.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 17, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

I've, like most of you, wondered why NHL players miss the net so much

Then it dawns on me that from the perspectives of the shooters on the ice, the net is probably only 2 inches wide form the blue line at best, growing to 6 inches from the faceoff circles.

by whatsinaname on Feb 17, 2012 3:52 PM EST reply actions