Games in hand might come in handy

by modsuperstar on Feb 10, 2012 11:36 AM EST

I was just looking at the schedules of the Eastern Conference teams down the stretch. In the month of March Boston, New Jersey and New York have to play 17 games in a 31 day month. Philly, Washington and Florida have 16 games. Toronto and Pittsburgh 15. Ottawa on the other hand plays 13 games in the month.

Could it be that all these games in hand that people have been lording over us as far as catching up to us may actually be our saving grace? Many of these teams are going to be playing a playoff-like schedule a month and half in advance of even making the playoffs. I think it's entirely possible if we get matched up with one of these teams we could be running into a team that is gassed relative to the Sens. I know games in hand could end up being what bounces us from the playoffs, but knowing every other team in the playoff race still has to play the crap part of their schedule makes me quite happy.

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The games in hand are a Schrödinger's cat

We won’t really know whether they’re a benefit or detriment until we the standings at the end of the year. In terms of determining what the Senators need to do to make the playoffs, the only way to look at them is to assume every team will win all the games in hand. That should tell us the threshold the Sens have to hit to have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

Of course, it’s a mistake to assume a team will win or lose all their games in hand, so the reality lies somewhere in between.

In terms of benefit, I certainly won’t complain if one of those games in hand comes against the Senators and they take advantage of a tired team. But they have to actually win the games for them to come in handy.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 10, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions

I initially thought that said “a cat’s schrödinger”…

…which they could turn out to be for us.

He was once called the worst participant Cirque du Soleil ever had.

by RogerTheShrubber on Feb 10, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

I hope not!

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 10, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

Mark: " the only way to look at them is to assume every team will win all the games in hand. "

Sorry to throw a wrench in that theory, but the correct way to analyze games in-hand is to take a teams winning percentage and multiply.

If we assume 94 points is the cutoff for playoff teams, each of their games in hand is at a minimum worth 1.15 points. Even the best teams (Rangers, Bruins) tend to have a season ending points percentage of just over 1.3.

Whether a team wins the 3 games that bring their GP in line with ours is irrelevant because at some point their relative consistency will even their points percentage out. i.e. if we’ve played 55 games and get a week off where team x plays their games 53, 54, and 55 and they lose each of those games, in the end they will still likely wind up with the same points percentage over their remaining 30 games as they would have, had they won those 3 games.

In reality, it means that games in-hand is irrelevant as long as the Sens hit 94 points. if they do that, they should be in a playoff spot. Games in-hand only become relevant in the final week(s).

But if you want to get a quick, accurate picture of where the team sits in the standings, just multiply the games in-hand for the teams below them by 1.25 and add that to their points total. e.g. team x has four games in hand, add 5 points to their total.

by 80 on Feb 10, 2012 8:44 PM EST reply actions

unfortunately, I'm with mark 80

a teams winning percentage over the course of the whole season does not account for teams that are peaking right now (i.e. Devils) or a team that could get on a hot streak and rattle off 6-8 games in a row. So what mark is saying is that the SAFEST way, the way to be 100% sure is to assume all of those games will be won.

by DaveYoung on Feb 11, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly!

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

by B_T on Feb 13, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions

but

if a team wins 6 straight, all of a sudden they’re (eg.) 8 points ahead of us. Then they lose two straight. Then they go .500 for 6 games (3-3) and then they lose another two straight…And then they win 3 straight and then they lose another and drop one more in OT.

Over those 21 games, they went 12-8-1, extrapolated over an entire season for 97 points.

So that 6 game win streak, just like those 5 games in hand, was a red-herring. The real relevance of games in hand is to use them to determine where the team would LOGICALLY be, had they played the same amount of games, not where they would be in a worst case scenario.

More to the point, games-in-hand are only relevant when there aren’t 20-odd games remaining in the season, i.e. the final week or two.

by 80 on Feb 13, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

Ha, no need to apologize for disagreeing

But I think you’re talking about prediction, and I’m talking about assuming.

I definitely agree that at some point other teams’ relative consistency should even their points percentage out. But for purposes of figuring out the Senators’ drop-dead threshold, those games in hand must be assumed as won, because that possibility, however unlikely, does exist.

Giving everyone with games in hand wins (I realize this is impossible due to scheduling, but bear with me):

NYR 83
Boston 78
Florida 69
Philly 75
NJ 72
Pittsburgh 71
Washington 67
Toronto 66
Ottawa 63

Is where the teams would be sitting today.

Again, I’m not saying all the games in hand will be won—just that assuming they will gives us a general idea of Ottawa’s worst-case scenario.

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 11, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Instead of doing that, just use the teams winning percentages.

And they wind up in essentially the same position, without the dire viewpoint.

I also disagree that it gives you a picture of their “drop-dead threshold” because we aren’t trying to have more points than those teams right now. If the season was 57 games long, you’d be right, but the season is 82 games.

Simply put: I don’t see how just giving wins to every team below them gives an accurate picture of where they stand. It only gives a worst-case scenario that probably isn’t possible, given that several of these teams may play each other over the next 5 games and every team is guaranteed to lose games over the course of a season.

Their drop-dead threshold is 96 points. Since the lockout, no team in the East has missed the playoffs with 96 points and it’s highly, highly unlikely that the 8th place team this season finishes with that many… That means they have to go 15-8-3 (I was wrong in my post below) to guarantee a spot. That being said, I would bet good money that the 8th place team finishes with 92 points or less.

by 80 on Feb 11, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

But what fun is life without the dire viewpoint?!

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by Mark Parisi on Feb 11, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

Btw, the Sens need a 1.2 ppg from their 25 games remaining to make it to 93 points

That’s playing at a 98 point pace over an 82 game stretch. That means being a top-5 team in the East.

Hardly a guarantee…

That being said, if we isolate on the time between the first 10 games of the season and the last 10 games played, the Sens went 21-12-6. That’s a 1.23 ppg, good enough to top 100 points on the season.

They’ll basically have to repeat that to make the playoffs (on a smaller scale – 25 games vs 39). If they do much worse than 15-8-3, they likely won’t have points needed…

In other words, that 7 game losing streak really ****ed us.

hat 21-12-6

by 80 on Feb 10, 2012 9:12 PM EST reply actions

I agree the 7 game losing streak ****ed us, but Ottawa has been a streaky team for a long time. We lost 7 in a row, but could easily win 10 of the next 12, and then lose 4 in a row again.

by OttawaWendy on Feb 11, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions