Silver Nuggets: Senators third period by the numbers
by Adnan on Jan 9, 2012 1:01 PM EST
in Silver Nuggets
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PrintAfter the Senators won yet another game that they trailed, let's take a look at some third period statistics:
- Ottawa has outscored their opponents 61-51 in the third period. The 61 goals scored are the most in the league but the 51 allowed are the fourth highest.
- Ottawa has won six of their 20 games when trailing after two periods (6-13-1). That is winning 30% of the games when trailing after two. Columbus has won 11 of their 41 games in total, which is a 27% winning percentage. Anaheim's 12 wins in 40 games is also at a 30% rate.
- In addition to the six wins when trailing after two, Ottawa has three more wins when trailing at some point in the third for a total of nine wins while trailing in the third period.
- The nine wins were while trailing Minnesota (3-1 with 13:47 left), Columbus (3-2 with 0:36 left), New York (4-1 with 10:42 left), Winnipeg (4-3 with 17:19 left), Tampa Bay (2-1 with 16:25 left), Buffalo (2-1 with 12:33 left), Calgary (3-2 with 15:32 left), New Jersey (2-0 with 18:39 left), Philadelphia (4-2 with 16:49 left).
- As can be seen above, four of the wins were while trailing by two goals or more in the third period. On top of that, the Calgary win was only a one goal deficit in the third but it was 3-0 in the second period.
- That's all good, but the Sens record of 9-1-1 when leading after two periods is only 19th in the league. They also lost two more games that they led in the third (but not after two periods) in Dallas and in Philadelphia. That's a total of four blown leads in the third period where they picked up only 2 out of 8 points.
General Sens News
- Game recap. (Silver Seven, Broad Street Hockey, Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
- On even strength, Erik Karlsson was on the ice for 14 Ottawa scoring chances last night and 3 Philadelphia chances. When Karlsson wasn't on the ice, Philadelphia had 14 chances and Ottawa had 6. (The 6th Sens)
- There has been some recent talk of Erik Karlsson winning the Norris Trophy. Jared Crozier asks if Erik Karlsson should also be considered for the Hart Trophy. Karlsson isn't the best player in the world, but is he the most valuable to his team? (SenShot)
- Karlsson hasn't heard of Norm MacIver before. Currently on pace to smash MacIver's club record for points by a defenceman, Karlsson is keeping his feet on the ground for now. Don Brennan suggested to Karlsson before the season that he could get 70 points, and Karlsson laughed. Brennan reminded him of that. (Ottawa Sun)
- Check out this video of members of the Toronto Blue Jays meeting the Ottawa Senators in the locker room after the game. Jason Spezza seems pretty happy but that's the only Toronto sports jersey he will wear. (Ottawa Senators)
- Playoff probability update: 56.8% at SportsClubStats and 67% at PlayoffStatus.
- Jaromir Jagr on the Erik Karlsson goal: "He poked-checked it, and all of a sudden it's a three on one. I don't know where our defence went." Ha! Funny Jaromir! (Philly.com)
- Craig Anderson was third star of the week after going 3-0-1 with a 2.41 GAA and .929 save percentage. (TSN)
- Can the Senators afford to trade Filip Kuba? Ian Mendes mentions the message that would be sent to the players by trading away a player logging so much ice time in the middle of a playoff race, but he also raises another good point. What would it mean for Erik Karlsson's development? Karlsson and Kuba have had terrific chemistry. (Sportsnet)
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Best part of the Karlsson/MacIver article:
Karlsson tops all league defencemen in scoring and is just three behind Henrik Sedin for the NHL lead in assists. He does know that.
“I can’t deny it,” he said when asked if he checks out the scoring race, “but it’s not like I’m in there every day or keeping that much track. I don’t want to jinx it too much. Obviously it’s fun that you can contribute in that way, and just try to play hard every game and give the puck to (Jason) Spezza as much as you can.”
Co-manager, Silver Seven
i wish he'd pass it to Michalek more!
i chose to keep him on my team and dump Hedjuk instead – it was almost a coin toss. C’mon Karlsson, help me out – share the love!!
That's awesome
I wonder if Spezza was standing right beside them.
Silver Seven | Twitter | Facebook | E-mail | eBay
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 10, 2012 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
I still maintain that you keep Kuba as long as we're in the playoff mix.
We’re not out of it, and we’ve been relatively competitive to date. Keep Kuba, let him walk afterwards if he wants, but trading him exposes a huge hole that we can’t fill this season.
Starting the year I was in favour of trading Kuba. Given the way the year has played out, I tend to agree with you. Guys like Karlsson, Cowen, Turris, ZSmith have a lot to gain from a push to get into the playoffs. If Kuba is a necessary component for making that push then I’d be more than happy to keep him and let him leave in the off-season.
The one thing that I don’t want to see Murray do is get over-excited and trade prospects for rental vets at the deadline.
If we trade for a UFA at the deadline I swear to all hell I’m going to lose it. LOSE IT!
That said, I’m slowly getting used to the idea that Kuba’s going nowhere. He’s all the UFA we need for this run. I’m sure the way Murray drafts, we could get someone pretty decent with the 2nd rounder I believe we could get for Kuba, but some playoff experience may be more valuable.
BUT NO BUYING UFAs AT THE DEADLINE!
by spez_dispenser on Jan 9, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Murray's been pretty consistent in his message about trades so far
In that he’s only looking for long-term help. It will be interesting to see if he can stick to that if push comes to shove.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
On the bright side, we don’t have our 2nd round pick any more to pick up our traditional rental.
Unless…that means the 1st rounder is going. :O
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Ha, I don’t think Murray would do 1st rounder for Semin.
I would love if we signed him though. He’s playing better these days.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
His fight really ruined him for me
He might as well have been using a handbag. It’s hard to believe in a guy after that.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
He gave Marc Staal a concussion yo!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Semin isn’t scoring goals and is about as soft a player and something you find in a baby’s diaper, and way overpaid, Kovalev jr….pass.
Don't worry, I was joking
I don’t think I would be happy giving up next year’s first to rent any top winger, whether it be Semin or Parise.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
LOL. As much as I make fun of his fighting prowess, I'll still have him anyday.
question is always the price.
I'm with gwplant
I don’t think he’s the kind of player that fits in our system. Can you see him backchecking like Michalek did last night?
I’d still go crazy for Parise, but not as a rental.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Well, if the choice is Parise or Semin......
yet, I won’t say no to Semin just because he’s not our type of player. You shouldn’t turn down a scorer: If he’s going to give you 30-35 goals per, I’ll give him linemates to make it work. Again, it boils down to the price.
I guess so
But if the scorer also costs you 20 goals, the net is only 15. If that’s the gain, I’d rather have Condra or Greening.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Semin is +81 from '08-'09 till now.
I know that doesn’t mean he’s responsible defensively, but does he have a bad rep defensively?
I would pick Semin over Parise. Semin will also be cheaper.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
That’s because you love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter.
Parise over Semin, easy, even if it means you’re paying more cash.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
This is true.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I do not understand..
So first post. Long time lurker. Love this blog.
But throughout the 1+ years that I have lurked, I have never understood your guys love of Alex Semin. Yes, he has immense skill but his consistency has always been called into question. I remember the frustration of the past 1 and 1/2 years with Kovalev. So am I missing something?
If I had a choice of an UFA next year, I would say Parise (doubt he’ll make it that far if the Devils are smart).
by ALFredssons on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
Far better men than I are bound to say it. Men with jobs and lives and proper sleep habits. But until they do, this will have to suffice:
Welcome, and thanks for joining.
I see you found your name tag. The snacks and punch are back there, along the far wall. Can I interest you in a nice roast cat? We have Tabbies and Siamese, but I’ll have to check with the chef – I think the kitchen may be all out of Persians (our friend DOGavins was here earlier and he usually packs quite the appetite).
Anyway, as I said, your waiter should be here shortly. Enjoy.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Jan 10, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
Welcome to the site!
We usually pile on the sarcasm pretty heavily… it makes things very confusing.
Silver Seven | Twitter | Facebook | E-mail | eBay
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 10, 2012 8:40 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
My main point for trading Kuba was to give Rundblad ice time. I am not really as concerned about giving Lee or Carkner ice time, so I am okay if we don’t get a 2nd rounder for Kuba.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Now what if we got a 1st rounder?
If he keeps logging almost 30 a night, and we’re pretty sure he’s not coming back next year. A late first rounder isn’t outside the realm of possiblity.
What then?
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
What if he hands in a trade/transfer request like the badge kissing Gerrard!
But in all seriousness, that’s a tough call. I would really love to make the playoffs, but a first round pick is a great return for Kuba.
I wonder how much Carkner can get if he stops sucking. Teams value “grit” and fighting etc. for playoff run.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Really?
Please see the article I read 3 mins ago about Rooney badge-kissing after handing in a transfer request: http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2900/fa-cup/2012/01/09/2837206/mock-the-weekend-paul-scholes-returning-wayne-rooneys-badge
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Things are only funny if they are against players on teams I hate.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
i don't see us getting a 1st rounder for Kuba
that would have to be considered an overpayment and Milbury is no longer a GM anywhere as far as i know.
I’m frankly thinking Murray should consider at least a 1 yr extension for Kuba…
A 1 yr extension works for us, but maybe not him
And I think a late first rounder could happen if he keeps up his present form and there are a few teams with holes in their defence come deadline day. 1st pairing defenders are valuable and not frequently up for grabs at the deadline.
Hell, when you look at what Boston gave up for Kaberle…
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
We've seen Washington do it a number of times now
I don’t have time to properly think about it, but I’d bet there are a number of teams at least threatening that could use a Kuba.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
i suppose that's true
Poti’s been injured quite a bit, Green is their only really established no.1. Although Carlson seems to be settling into more of a defensive D-man. Wideman is also more offensive-D. Anyway, no real ying to Green’s Yang. Hmmm, interesting situation there and they’ll certainly be looking at whatever needs to be done for a real playoff push.
Trading Rundblad
Killed any Kuba talks.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
Perspective on the standings
Ottawa is 6th on a points per game basis, but it’s essentially a tie from 4th to 9th (ignoring div rankings), with 1.79 points seperation.
The team is playing great, but if we had played fewer games, we might have been 8th or 9th. I think that’s the perspective we still need to take if any trades are made for prospects/picks (not that I think they will)
I was thinking about this idea this morning. It seems the perception when it comes to games in hand is that the teams behind you will definitely convert those into wins and make up the ground. The reality is that if you’re like Washington and have 4 games in hand, you’re probably going to be playing a busy schedule in the next while and will have to make it through some 3 games in 4 nights kind of gauntlets like the Sens did recently. I don’t think you can assume games in hand means easy points to pickup.
I think you have to assume it
What’s the saying, “Plan for the worst, hope for the best”?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
i guess a few of us have been thinking about this
cause i have been too. When do we even-up with everyone else vis-a-vis our 2-3 games in hand?
I have no idea
I’d guess not until March or April, though
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I just looked it up a bit.
I checked Ottawa versus some of our neighbours in the standings.
It’s wild – we pull ahead of New Jersey by 4 games by the end of this month. We also lose another game in hand on Toronto and Philly within the next month. In February, things start to even out, but even by Leap Year Day, Philly, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Jersey will all have games in hand on us.
Pittsburgh will have 4 games in hand on us by the end of February, for instance.
That's the best case scenario
All Ottawa can really do is worry about winning their games, and winning the games against those teams becomes even more critical. Tomorrow’s tilt against Pittsburgh is a great chance to pad the lead.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Agreed
That is why I prefer points per game, I almost wish it were the main ranking stat during the season. The PPG rankings show that Ottawa needs to keep winning and could easily fall out of contention.
Although we’re technically 5th, we are barely 8th.
by BD Rebuilders on Jan 11, 2012 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Looking ahead...
…it really does appear that there are some teams who’ll be playing catchup in March and April and will have to play back-to-back nights while the Sens are resting.
Sweet 16
Butler is heating up as predicted here..now -to play 7 mins a game will not enable him to be what he can be and it is up to the coach to find the guy his ice time..
It's because of my report card
Really lit a fire under him.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 10, 2012 8:43 AM EST up reply actions
They have trailed 20 times heading into the 3rd period and won 6 of them.
I worded it a bit weird I suppose.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If we are in the playoff mix, I don't anticipate us trading Kuba.
You go to war loaded, not discarding your better weapons hoping to win the war two, three years from now. Once in the playoff, anything can happen…..almost anything. The experience will not be unlike the Calder Cup run for Bingo last year in terms of building confidence and psychological experience.
I'm not sure the war analogy works
The same thing happens every year, and franchises have to look to the present and future. We are not going to win the Cup this year. Which means we’re going to lose the Cup. Which means we need to do the best thing we can for the future.
The real question then is whether having Kuba around for the rest of the year is the best thing for the future. It may be, for the reasons that you give. But that will largely depend on what the offers are.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
According to Laviolette in 24/7, every coach starts the season with the aim to win the Cup
Guess he won’t get hired as a rebuild coach anytime soon…
I can’t really think of a team in a playoff spot trading a guy playing 23 minutes for a draft pick at the deadline.
I could be wrong, but I don’t remember a case.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
But then you have teams who try to hold on to someone they aren’t going to keep in order to make the playoffs, fail to make the playoffs, and give ‘em up for free. Brad Richards last season is the most recent example, but it happens every year. Granted, those are often with bigger names than Kuba (or people who have rejected contract extensions and it’s a certainty they’ll leave), but it’s always something to consider.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
That’s what makes me a formidable lover.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
holy smokes - Fox Sports has us no. 11 in their power rankings!
I’m not sure if even i’m that high on our team. Clearly their hockey writers aren’t based in Toronto…
ESPN has us 10th.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I don't like these rankings, too high.
We’ll get noticed. Damn.
National Post has us ranked 17th, i think
below Toronto (15th) and Washington (11 or 12). That’s more like it…
No worries.
TSN will have us at 26th or something.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Doubtful
We’ll likely move up a spot or 2 this week.
by B_T on Jan 9, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Goalie stats, most likely
6 goals against in 3 games (plus a shut-out) last week vs 10 goals against in 4 games, plus a better goal differential on the season.
by B_T on Jan 9, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Gotta keep the blue masses happy
And who needs statistics when you have shameless pandering.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
The TSN Power Ranking is purely stats based
But who needs accurate information when you’ve got a good hate on?
by B_T on Jan 9, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
(The only answer to getting caught with a hate-on)
A very well-justified hate-on though.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 9, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Both
But a higher level of disagreement re: the TSN rankings
I don’t feel that strongly about the rankings. I don’t really care enough to have ever looked into it, but was always suspicious of the Leafs being higher ranked than they seemingly should be at most points in the year. If you say the numbers are sound then I believe you. The standings are the important rankings anyways.
As for TSN generally, their near-monopoly of the Canadian sports broadcasting market is irritating, especially when they’ve achieved it mostly by having deeper pockets and being able to bid other networks out of almost every sport (particularly the Score, which offered better programming for the most part). I’m also irritated by their Toronto-centric focus in most things, and the way they manufacture events like the WJs, trade deadline day etc. I can’t blame them, because they’ve been successful with all of these strategies, but I don’t like it.
Also, women’s hockey.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 10, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm not saying the numbers are sound for the rankings
Just that they’re impartial. The model does what the model does, and is blind to what team it’s doing it to.
I have a bit of an idea of how the model works (heavy on goals for skaters and GAA for goalies, heavy on goalies for the team scores), I don’t know it well enough to say if it’s a good model or not.
Maybe I don’t mind the near-monopoly that much because I remember when it was actually the only sports channel. Sportsnet is finally starting to give them a run for their money though. Everything else is maybe worth a little frustration, but not hate IMO.
Sports rivarly hate. Not hate hate.
Except during their 45 minute CFL coverage or stories about Dion Phaneuf’s new dog. Then I’m somewhere in between.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 10, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Really? Phaneuf's dog?
Well, in that case, glad I don’t follow CFL.
by whatsinaname on Jan 10, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hey
That dog was the Argo’s leading passer last year.
The Argos?
I thought they folded in the late 1990’s because no one had paid them an attention in a decade.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 10, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Who are we willing to rule out of playoff race in east for good?
No one?
Just Isles and Canes?
Lightning and Habs as well?
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Isles and Canes for sure
Probably Tampa, and Montreal and Buffalo on the edge. Only reason they’re on the edge is they’ve both still got a lot of potential 4 point games left against the middle-pack in the east – including 4 against each other.
by B_T on Jan 9, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'll rule out Montreal as well...they just don't have the firepower to get there.
And I love to shut their fans up with their stupid soccer chant.
They've scored more goals, and allowed fewer than Buffalo
I’m not saying it’s likely at this point, but I wouldn’t rule them out just yet.
They need to pick up the pace a little to make up some ground, and they need to do so at the expense of the current bubble teams (they’ve got 4 games against Toronto, 4 games against Washington and 4 games against Buffalo) to lower the bar.
by B_T on Jan 9, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
more potential in Buffalo
If you just look at the rosters. Price would basically have to put the Canadiens on his back for them to see the post-season. What will be interesting is if Montreal decides to be sellers at the deadline…
by west-sider on Jan 9, 2012 6:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
They should be
I think the Habs are carrying too many guys on the downslope of their career for too much money; it would be for the best if they could move some of them.
Gauthier has turned into one unpredictable SOB though
who knows what he’ll do. Funny, i was listening to HNIC Radio on Sirius today and they were talking about what a mess Columbus is in and I was thinking that they and Montreal would sure be blessed to have a BMurr right now.
If I remember correctly, Buffalo usually has a better 2nd half season,
so I won’t count them out yet. Montreal with its language controversy is self imploding. Changing coaches is supposed to revive your team, not to handicap your new coach, especially when it’s made abundantly clear Cunnyworth is only an interim coach. That’s just my take.
I'm not willing to rule out anyone not mathematically eliminated
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Calling Columbus challenging for the President's Trophy with 109 points right now
by B_T on Jan 9, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I'll look like a freaking genius if I'm right
And I’ll claim sarcasm if I’m wrong! I can’t lose!
They even fired their coach for you
THE STARS ARE ALIGNING
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Jan 10, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Must Trade Kuba
There’s been lots of talk of trading Kuba for a draft pick, but I think it’s far more likely that we deal him for a package including a young, roster ready defenceman. Say Marco Scandella and a 3rd for Kuba. Maybe I’m overvaluing Kuba and the Wild’s desire to get into the playoffs a bit here, but I think a deal like this could be enormous for the Sens. Scandella is a second pair guy almost immediately. Almost being a key word there. The pairings change to Karlsson-Cowen, Gonchar-Phillips, Scandella-Lee. We’ve already seen Karlsson and Cowen look good together this year, you have to think that two vets like Gonch and Big Rig can figure shit out, and Scandella and Lee are both responsible third pairing guys who can play 15ish minutes a game for now.
The true value of this trade will be felt in two or three years. Scandella is a true shutdown defender. He proved it in junior, he proved it at the World Juniors, he proved it in the AHL, and he’s had a pretty good year for a 21 year old this season. He offers what many Sens fans hope that Boroweicki or Gryba will turn into.
Clearly this is a huge gamble, adding another player technically in his rookie year to the more than a handful we already have, but I think doing this or something like it with a defenceman of Scandella’s ilk would be extremely shrewd. It would certainly weaken our chances at the playoffs this season, but it would make the team so much better for the Cup run that will take place in 2013-2014.
This is definitely worth considering
But I don’t think Kuba is going anywhere while the Sens are contending for a playoff position.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Kuba
He isnt going anywhere. BM will resign him to a favourable deal and that will be that. His only value lies in riding out his career here, doing what he can as a mentor. Gonchar has a better name brand – Carkner and Lee – definitely going somewhere soon.
I cant see BM doing anything rash at this point. If he could steal that perfect missing piece – I still dont see it compromising our future. I definitely dont see BM having the mandate to make any major moves involving UFA’s.
We will be moving forward as is, barring a smart, lucky move that will bring immediate returns.
I'm very skeptical that Kuba will re-sign with Ottawa
He is not well-loved here. Throw in his team-best plus-13 rating on a team most thought would be looking for a lottery pick, and his 80 blocked shots (second best on the team) as well as his veteran leadership and he should be a valuable commodity on the free agent market—which is why we’re even talking about his trade value in the first place.
There’s no real reason for him to stay in Ottawa given his treatment by fans and media.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
There’s no real reason for him to stay in Ottawa given his treatment by fans and media.
As someone who blamed Kuba exclusively for the last two years, yeah. I wish him well, but his time here hasn’t been good. Someone will want a #1 pairing D-man, and he’s not going to command much on the market either. I would be shocked if he stayed here, and wasn’t offered a better contract elsewhere.
I think even if he's offered an equal contract elsewhere he walks
But you never know. He might really like the organization, regardless of outside factors. You could tell the entire team was genuinely pumped for him on the GWG last night.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I think the most important thing to Kuba is
how he feels in the locker room as to whether he wants to stay or not.
if we're solidly in post-season position
you really think we should be entertaining sending Kuba somewhere? Obviously if it’s a “can’t refuse offer” we do it but I’m not sure who steps in to replace what he’s doing for us right now… Cowen? Phillips (argh)?
All my posts stated that we keep Kuba in the event of a playoff run.
The above statement relates to whether he’ll want to re-sign with us or not especially after the way the fans and press had treated him till recently. He cares more about his place in the locker room.
Completely agree.
Keep Kuba if we’re in a playoff run, and then good luck to him. Whether that is with or without the Sens organization is up to Murray.
I think we overestimate his value to other teams in the league. He’s a guy who’s next contract will be a guaranteed over 35 contract. I don’t see teams lining up to shell out big money for a guy like Kuba. To me he seems like a guy that will probably head to the KHL for his next contract. I would figure Ottawa would probably be the only place he’d be willing to play as it doesn’t rock the boat for him on a personal level, the way uprooting to another city would. I’d figure at his age he would want to live closer to home.
As an aside, I didn’t know Kuba was traded for Rocky Thompson until reading his Wikipedia article. I saw Thompson play for the Flames AHL affiliate and he was one of the biggest goons I have ever seen. Could barely skate and wore these crappy old brown skates, the type they wore in the 70s and 80s. Amusingly he’s now coaching for the Oilers AHL team.
Hey - we managed to get something for Ruutu!
but fundamentally i agree with you. I think BMurr would/should appreciate that the past couple of seasons for Kuba have been anomalies where he’s suffered through injuries, missed camp, etc. I think we’re looking at the Kuba he traded for now. I don’t think we’d be looking at 1st rounder offers.
He won't get a big contract
But for $3mill he could be a good 3/4 guy. Not too expensive to buy out if you need to either.
There are a lot of teams with money to spend
Roman Hamrlik just got a two-year, $7M, 35+ deal.
Andy Sutton signed a two-year, $4.25M, 35+ deal.
Ed Jovanovski signed a four-year, $16.5M, 35+ deal.
Adrian Aucoin signed a two-year, $4M, 35+ deal.
Sergei Gonchar signed a three-year, $16.5M, 35+ deal.
Jaroslav Spacek signed a three-year, $11.5M, 35+ deal.
Some of these guys are better than Kuba, some aren’t as valuable, but all were over 35 when they signed their multi-year deals for many millions. If Kuba’s whole year point totals match the pace of his half-year totals, he’ll get his money.
Working against him, though, is the sheer number of solid veteran defencemen who’ll be available, but that might just mean a bidding war makes his services even more valuable.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 10, 2012 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
It's one of those curious situations
Kuba’s value is probably higher for another franchise than it is for the Senators, mostly because of the contracts and the young players Ottawa’s got on defence.
It’s the opposite situation for Alfredsson, whose value is higher in Ottawa than it would be anywhere else.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 10, 2012 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
The biggest problem is finding a trading partner. Gudbranson would be a guy I would covet from Florida, but we’d have to trade Regin and a high second to get him I would think, quite possibly Kuba and a first would be the required price. I would still be ok with that, but just ok.
Other than those two there aren’t many teams that match up well with the Sens. We could dream of picking up guys like Leddy, Bogosian, or Jack Johnson, but I don’t think any of those teams are that desperate. Maybe a trade could be worked out with the Leafs or Preds, but I doubt Murray would deal with Burke and the Preds are notoriously stingy. But the resounding thread throughout these two posts is that we should at least TRY to trade Kuba.
by ojc on Jan 9, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Whatever you are willing to give away in a trade is probably
NOT what the other teams want. What you are not willing to give away, are the assets they want.
Then maybe we're looking at this the wrong way...
Some people are saying “don’t trade Kuba” while others are saying “Trade Kuba for this amazing asset!” Maybe your statement “Whatever you are willing to give away in a trade is probably NOT what the other teams want. What you are not willing to give away, are the assets they want” is something we should let work to OUR advantage for a change.
I think there’s enough debate on whether it is better to trade or keep Kuba to assure us that we don’t NEED to trade him. Some would like to, but there’s value in keeping him too. So why not let Murray sit back and be courted on this one? If another team comes asking for him, then WE should be in the position to make some demands. And if someone feels that the benefit to acquiring Kuba is worth closing their eyes and thinking of England while we take off with a top pick/prospect that they would really rather not have given up, then it’ll probably be a good deal for us in the long term. And, hey, if teams just hear our demands and scoff it off as not worth it, well we don’t have a problem with keeping Kuba either.
We always seem to approach these things about us seeking something out and making a trade happen. Let them come to us for once.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 9, 2012 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
No way the Senators get Scandella or Gudbranson unless they give up a LOT
Gudbranson would require way more than Regin and a second — I don’t think Regin has much value around the league at this point due to injuries and a lack of production. We’d have to add to Kuba to get Scandella, who by all accounts has had a great season in Minnesota.
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Adding a top pairing defenceman wouldn’t be enough for a team that currently doesn’t have one, let alone two (sorry Marek Zidlicky and Nick Schultz). Not to mention that they have Spurgeon and Brodin in the pipeline. But even if it takes a 4th from us to get it done, that’s still a good trade. Gubranson would probably take something like Regin, Kuba, and our 2nd at least, maybe our first. That’s what I meant to say above, but clearly it was worded ambiguously. Maybe Regin would have to be exchanged for someone more coveted. I still think that’s a deal you pull the trigger on.
by ojc on Jan 9, 2012 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think you might be undervaluing Gudbranson and overvaluing Kuba
Sure, Kuba is having a great season—especially compared to past ones in Ottawa—but he’s still 35 and doesn’t have a particularly strong resume over the past four years.
Gudbranson is a 3rd overall pick who is younger than Karlsson and hasn’t even touched the prime of his career. Jovo is 35 and Campbell is 32. Gudbranson is clearly the cornerstone of the Panthers’ defense for the next six years. We could offer Kuba, Regin, our 2nd (which, of course, we don’t actually have), Da Costa, Foligno and Butler and it wouldn’t be enough. Teams don’t trade their futures for other teams’ fringe players, no matter how many more of them you add to the pile, unless they’re run by Milbury.
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The value to owners in markets like Florida and Minnesota of getting even 2 playoff games is incredible. Yes, as a hockey player there’s no comparison of their value, but when an owner sees that he can have an extra $2 million in his pocket at the end of the season or not he tells his GM to make that happen. None of these trades make sense in terms of hockey assets, but capitalizing on teams in markets where making the playoffs is either integral to breaking even/making money or to appease a starved fan base (Minnesota, Toronto, etc.) should be BMur’s strategy.
Sorry, but no owner is going to tell his GM to "make that happen"
You don’t get to be a billionaire by sacrificing years of future playoff success for an extra $2M this year. The trades you’re suggesting don’t make sense in terms of hockey assets or business sense.
I understand what you’re saying, but I can’t think of any examples of a team giving up a top-5 player under the age of 20 for a 35-year old pending UFA just to make a playoff round. Can you?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
No, obviously a package of strictly Kuba wouldn’t work and Gubranson is more of a dream than Scadnella, but if Murray sits pat and doesn’t try to trade Kuba we’ll never know. I think the asking price for Gudbranson is probably around a 1st, Kuba, and a roster forward, but who knows with Dale Talon.
The price for Gudbranson is probably much higher
Would you trade Karlsson for Florida’s 1st, Ed Jovanovski, and Tomas Kopecky? Because that’s essentially what you’re suggesting.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I can think of no batter way to cause a dip in Blue Jays attendance, than the wide circulation of the above photo.
Okay, maybe swap out Spezza for Alfredsson, and sales dip an additional 2%
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Jan 9, 2012 7:53 PM EST reply actions
No batter, no batter, no batter, swing and a miss.
Better, butter, butter, better, butter butter. I need to work on my enunciation.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Jan 9, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeyyyy batter batter batter!!!!
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Cameron Frye: great sidekick or greatest sidekick?
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Jan 10, 2012 1:53 AM EST up reply actions
We need to start a "MacIver Count" soon for Karlsson in postgame recaps.
Scholar, Gentleman, Shameless Sens Homer with a Heart of Gold.
by Johnny_Spectacular on Jan 9, 2012 10:19 PM EST reply actions
Jinx. I think we should pretend not to know of MacIver
and then suddenly, one evening this spring, we all break out into a cheer when Karlsson breaks the record.
by whatsinaname on Jan 9, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This Spring?
I think you mean late February, amirite?
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Jan 10, 2012 1:54 AM EST up reply actions
It's possible
Karlsson needs 23 points to break the record. There are 22 games left until the end of February.
He needs to just pick up the pace.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
He's got 12 points in the last 10 games
At that pace, he won’t need all 22 games before the end of Feb.
Should we make it the site tagline?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 10, 2012 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
Silver Seven - Not jinxing the MacIver count
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
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