Enjoying the Improbable: A Fan's Assessment at the Halfway Point
I’ve watched many iterations of the Ottawa Senators. I remember when they first captured my heart by defeating the New Jersey Devils as an 8 seed in 1998. I remember when we traded Ron Tugnutt for Tom Barrasso and thinking, "That can’t be right..." I remember Yashin sitting out an entire year and I remember everyone hating him for it. I remember sitting through what seemed like countless playoff series where Curtis Joseph and Ed Belfour stood on their heads. I remember when Jeff Friesen broke my heart in 2003. I remember Senators teams that started hot, and then fell apart down the stretch. I remember a Senators team that started cold, then rode an improbable hot streak all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. I’ve seen almost everything there is to see from this team, but I can’t remember seeing anything like this.
You see, according to various talking heads, the Ottawa Senators aren’t supposed to be a very good hockey team this year. If you looked at the roster on paper, you’d be hard pressed to make an argument to the contrary. Our blueline is made up of veterans who are past their primes, young, unproven prospects, and career AHLers. Our best player is Jason Spezza, a player who should be on the decline. Spezza’s wingers are a man who has undergone two knee surgeries, and someone no one outside of Ottawa had ever heard of. The heart and soul of the team, Daniel Alfredsson, is coming off a season in which he suffered an injury which could have been considered career threatening, and is now in the twilight of his career at 39. The rest of the team is filled out with developing prospects (see: Condra, Butler, etc.), players with a history of underperforming (see: Foligno, Nick and Turris, Kyle) and tough guys with intangibles, but not much scoring (see: "Dangles" Konopka). Finally in net we have a goalie who was so bad last year, another team willingly took Brian Elliot onto their roster just to get rid him. And Alex Auld. We also have Alex Auld. Granted, I’m slightly underselling the team slight here, but given all this, I’d still say it’s pretty improbable that halfway through the year Ottawa is sitting 5th in the Eastern Conference.
Spezza’s been brilliant, Michalek started the year by channelling his inner Heatley (Seriously, is "Ottawa won the Heatley trade" now not a hilarious position to take in an argument now?), and Erik Karlsson has been a revelation. Alfie refuses to slow down even though he can’t carry the play like he used to. Neither Sergei Gonchar nor Brian Lee has been an unmitigated bag of fail, and even Filip Kuba is a +7 on the season. (Although, I have started referring to Kuba as, "The 2nd Round Draft Pick We’ll Get When We Trade Kuba at The Deadline". I’m just trying to stay ahead of the curve.)
Secondary scoring, long a weak point for Ottawa, has been coming like manna from heaven. Colin Greening started out hot, but he’s since cooled. Still, if it hasn’t been Greening with a timely goal, it’s been Nick Foligno. If it’s not Nick Foligno, it’s Z. Smith. If it’s not Z. Smith, it’s Condra. Against Buffalo, Ottawa won a game where their goal scorers were Matt Carkner and Chris Neil! I hardly think I'm slandering either of those guys to say that they aren't known for their offensive contributions, epic 3OT playoff goals aside, but dammit if they didn't contribute anyway.
The most impressive thing about Ottawa this year, however, has been their never-say-die attitude. There was that time they almost came back from 4-0 down vs. Toronto. There was that time they came back from 2-0 down vs. Minnesota. There was that time they scored two goals in the last minute of the game to beat Columbus. There was that time they scored 3 goals in the 3rd period vs. The Rangers to eventually win in a shootout. I could go on. Hell, in the past 7 days, Ottawa has won games in OT from 3-0 and 2-0 down. This team just doesn’t know how to quit, and I love them for it. No deficit is too large.
Regardless of what has happened in any game, I feel like the team is never out of it. I can’t say that’s something I’ve ever experienced as a Senators fan before. Ottawa has rarely been the plucky, never-say-die, grinder team. Over the past 10 years, they've usually been the highly skilled team that loses in the playoffs to the plucky, never-say-die, grinder team.
If Ottawa does make the playoffs, anything can happen. Don Cherry is fond of showing highlight packages of hard-working 3rd and 4th liners and saying, "All you kids out there, you watch these guys 'cause you win cups with guys like these!" Ottawa has players like that in spades. Guys who play the full 200 feet, and contribute at both ends. Ottawa won't win the Cup this year, but at least we know it won't be because they got outworked.
There’s still half the season left, but it's been a highly enjoyable ride so far. The Senators have a very hard January coming up, and maybe the wheels will fall off. Maybe the secondary scoring will dry up. Maybe the goaltending will stop doing enough to win games. But dammit, at least we know the players will continue to give a crap (Z. Smith’s personal mantra aside) and if they go down, they’ll go down fighting, and they’ll be damn entertaining while they do it.
Isn’t that really all a fan can ask for, anyway?
Bonus Thought: Think about this: Alfie is 39. When you look at his stats, that is mind blowing. Consider the list of players who were putting up big numbers at 39. Brett Hull put up 68 points in 81 games at 39. Mark Messier put up 67 points in 82 games. Alfie is on pace for 62 points in 70 games, which would put him on par with Joe Nieuwendyk’s season when he was 39. Jagr is 39 and currently sitting on 31 points in 33 games. Ray Whitney is 39 and has 35 points in 41 games. As far as I’m concerned, the only thing separating Nieuwendyk and Whitney from Alfie are some NHL seasons at the beginning of their careers and some rings. You can’t tell me that Alfie won’t belong in the Hall of Fame when he retires, you just can’t.
Bonus Bonus Thought:: In the (still unlikely) event that the Senators make the playoffs, The Paulrus is instantly granted Coach of the Year honours, no?
This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.
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What worries me is that we're in 5th place because EVERYTHING is going right
Well… except Anderson. But he’s looked good recently.
Still, we’ve seen what happens when Spezza’s line doesn’t produce and the secondary scoring can’t chip in: we quickly wind up on the wrong end of a 7-2 blowout. And that’s sadly not something that’s limited to the early season struggles—we just got whupped by Montreal last week.
I’m loving the ride, but I’m skeptical that it can last. The team has so many young players that it’d be naive to believe there aren’t bumps in the road ahead. When that happens, the important thing is that fans don’t get down on the team because they’re no longer exceeding expectations, but understand that those are the things that build the experience our young players need to succeed consistently.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I can't say I agree 100%
I don’t think it can be said that everything has gone right this year. We’ve had a few losing streaks. We’ve had injuries (Alfie, Michalek, Gonchar, Kuba, Phillips, Regin). We haven’t had a shutout yet this year. There was time when Spezza’s line didn’t produce, or that he was the only one scoring. In fact, that argument can be said about any team. What if Gaborik or Giroux or Malkin or Toews or Hossa don’t produce? Yes they have a deeper team, but what makes them good is consistency. Spezza has been pretty consistent so far.
Ottawa’s hard work has brought them where they are, not because everything has gone right, cause it hasn’t really. It hasn’t gone all wrong either. Bumps in a season happen and I think we expect it, but even the Blackhawks got whupped by the Oilers.
I agree that it’s gone well, but I don’t agree that everything has been going right!
by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 7, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know
I’m not trying to downplay their hard work, because that’s probably been the driving factor behind most of their goals.
I guess I’m just saying that it’s asking a lot of a guy like Condra, Z. Smith or Greening to carry the team on the nights when Spezza, Michalek, and Alfie aren’t going. Even though they’re doing a good job of scoring right now, I don’t see how they can keep it up.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I see what you mean
Watching this team play this year, and especially the guys you mentioned, I agree that it’s been a pleasant surprise. However their success (especially Condra and Smith) has really been the result of hard work in the zone. I noticed their goals, especially Smith’s goals, often come from the prime scoring areas (In the slot, crashing the net). When you do that, you normally have success, whether you’re a rookie or a vet ( the reason why Ryan Smyth has been effective for so long is an example.)
It has definitely been unexpected because it’s their first one way contract in the league, but the way they play the game is the way you now have success in this league, a solid 200 foot game as they call it, and they’re getting their just reward. We just get to benefit from it as a team as well :)
by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 7, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I agree
It’s quite obvious that most of our secondary goal-scoring is the direct result of hard work. Guys like Condra and Z. Smith seem to know they’re not going to create scoring chances by deking out four guys. But as I mentioned below, that style can wear on a player. I mean, look at the abuse that’s been heaped on Foligno this season—and we’re only halfway. It’s hard to imagine everyone keeping the same intensity level as their bodies wear down.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
That's true
I agree with you, young players tend not to be able to maintain such a high level throughout a long season. There are a lot of rookies and the wear and tear of an NHL season is a lot more than the wear and tear of an AHL season.
One thing that I do like is the fact that Smith and Greening and Condra and Cowen played A LOT of hockey last year ( well over 100 games) so maybe it won’t affect them as much as we think.
by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 7, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
You are right most players have outplayed their expectations except Anderson, but the starting goalie crapping the bed (until the last week) is a pretty big thing not going right though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Whose expectations? I am sure the players feel they are playing to their expectations,
and maybe they feel they can be even better. Anderson, on the other hand…….but he’s coming around. The second half of the season will be better: but then, every team probably feels the same way.
I love this team
And I think they are playing the way they are because they are playing for each other
Mark, as long as they keep feeling that way there is no reason for the great performance to end
How many teams can you truly say play full out until the game is over? These guys can go like this as long as they choose to
I think the real question is "How long can they play full out before they wear down?"
Again, I’m not knocking their hard work. I love it. But the season takes its toll on players, especially with the style the young kids are playing. I’m not questioning the will, only the viability.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Better Question is the status of the other teams.
Winnepeg: Essentially Atlanta from last year, they will fight for eighth.
Buffalo: Miller is having an off year and are beset by injuries.
Washington: Sleeping Giant or a team exposed.
Toronto: Pains me to say but they should get in barring a Kessel injury long-term.
New Jersey: Have to play Penguins/Flyers/Rangers six times each.
I would argue that as big X factor for Toronto would be if Lupul gets injured, just at much as Kessel. He has been prone to injury in the past, and I think he’s a big key to Kessel’s success. Teams can’t concentrate on Kessel as they used to, because if they do, Lupul will eat them up with the extra ice he gets, so one of them will always get more room than they otherwise would without the other. It’s no surprise that they’re both on pace for career highs (I assume. I have not looked this up). Sort of like how when shit hits the fan, our coaches always seem to get success throwing Alfie on a line with Spezza. (though less awesome, because neither one of them is Alfie) Sure, spreading them out is great for balance, but once they’re together, defenders don’t know who to cover. If either one of Kessel or Lupul goes down, expect the other to have a significant drop in output.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 8, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Some teams
like the Islanders, Oilers, Thrasher/Jets, Panthers, and Jackets seem like they are perpetually rebuilding. We should be grateful that things look to on track this quick.
That’s not to say we are ready to contend. Like Parisi stated, alot of things have gone well, Alfredsson and Spezza have had bounce back years, Michalek a career year, Karlsson and Cowen, Greening, Condra, and Smith have by far exceeded the most optimistic expectations. Vets like Gonchar and Kuba have bounced back from horrid seasons (Gonchar was good at the end last year), and Phillips…..well, sometimes looks decent too.
But remember Colorado 09/10? That seemed like a quick rebuild too, but it was really an aberration.
Either way, the GM finally got it right with a great coach (after 1/2 year, at least), has restocked the cupboard with grade A talent at every position (though we are still thin in goal after Lehner; the Predators have 3-4 top prospects behind Rinne).
This has been a great first half no matter what happens in the second half. Hopefully things continue and the Sens contend; either way, though, no more #1 pick for Comrie, Meszaros for Kuba type deals! The priority should be help now that can also help in the future (sorta like Turris).
"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.
Interesting that Anderson was with the Avs during their turn-around year as well
And he almost led them past the Sharks in the first round of the play-offs!
That said I think to your point and to some extent Mark’s point the good things that are happening this season have to be tempered with how badly last season went.
Nobody could score, Spezza and Alfie played hurt almost the entire year, Kuba was coming off back surgery when he broke his leg so he didn’t get off-season training or training camp, the goalies were brutal and so was our overall D. I almost forgot that Michalek got injured a few times and each time he was just starting to heat up.
Now we have a healed Spezza, Alfie, Michalek and Kuba plus Gonchar following his career path by bouncing back in his 2nd season with a new club. Add to it the growth of Karlsson, who we should have expected to improve and we can see that the core still had a lot left to offer.
Let’s not forget that before the Bingo run Smith, Condra and Greening had made an impact on the Ottawa Sens and we finished the season very strong. There are many who think that games get easier for teams out of the play-offs and chalk that up to the why the Sens were able to sting some wins together to close out last season but I am not one of them – pressure is trying to win a job for the future and show you can play in the NHL so the fact they showed they could compete and win at the end of last year led me to believe they could still have some success. I certainly didn’t expect what we have seen to date though.
In addition, we brought in Anderson and he was rightly credited with helping turn the team around plus BobbyButler had a tremendous finish to the season and scored some big goals. Neither of them have had the impact expected this season and while Anderson has been much more consistent of late and BobbyButler has put up a few points I think if we were told at the beginning of the year that through 42 games Anderson would have a 3.00+ GAA and a .900 Save % with Butler having chipped in 4 goals and 8 points we all would have figured they would be right where the experts predicted they would be. Near the bottom of the league’s standings.
All in all while I am surprised we are doing this well I think if we look at players going back to their averages with some young guys improving it probably isn’t all that shocking…last years team was brutal and shouldn’t have been that bad -this year we have a team of players going well and a coach who seems to really know what he is doing.
If Anderson continues his recent play and even improves a little I think the Sens can stay above the fray the rest of the year and let the Jets, Caps, Leafs, etc…fight for the last few spots.
it's amazing what a good coach can do...
…cheers to Coach MacLean.
One thing that's a bit misleading with the standings
is the Sens have played more then 2 games then all other teams (except Carolina). If NJ, Tor, Pit and Wash win all games to make up the game differential they’d pass the Sens in the standings.
Even then, the expected value for them is to get their points/game average.
Tor, Pit and Was are all behind us in that.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Jack Adams
Paulrus actually has the trophy in a box in his basement. Bettman said "don’t open it until the season’s over…but this saves shipping and insurance costs. I appreciate this Paul…and congratulations. Also, here’s the Norris…might as well hold onto this for “you know who”…ok…thanks bud. Check ya later"
The 'A' on Minnesotta Wild winger Dany Heatley's jersey does NOT stand for 'assistant'.

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