Silver Nuggets: Negotiating with Erik Karlsson
by Adnan on Jan 4, 2012 1:00 PM EST
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Over the last day, there has been an article by Ken Campbell at The Hockey News and Wayne Scanlan at the Citizen advocating for considering Erik Karlsson as this season's Norris Trophy winner. His entry level contract also expires at the end of this season, after which he is a restricted free agent. Those kind of accolades certainly help Karlsson's case in negotiating a new deal.
Let's take a look at some points to consider for Karlsson's extension:
- Career year: Karlsson is having a spectacular year, currently on pace for 76 points in only his third season. He'd be the 10th defenceman in NHL history to get 75 points in a season within the first three years of his career and only the second in history to do it outside the run-and-gun era of the 70s and 80s. He's also improving in other areas, and after this season, I would rank him as above-average defensively. Karlsson will be an all-star for the second time in his short career.
- Comparable styles: The two players often mentioned in terms of comparables are Kris Letang and Mike Green. Letang signed a 4-year $14 million deal after a 27 point season and Green signed a 4-years $21 million contract after a 56 point season. Letang's deal is a non-starter as a comparable because he hadn't become an elite player at that point. Green is more valid, but Karlsson will likely blow 56 points out of the water and Green's contract was three years ago. Prices have gone up.
- Comparable circumstances: Shea Weber signed a 1-year $7.5 million deal after a career year. Weber is a very different player from Karlsson but when the parties couldn't agree on a long term deal, they simply signed a 1-year deal.
- Karlsson is an RFA with no arbitration rights: With no arbitration rights, Karlsson can either take a deal from Ottawa, hope he gets an offer sheet, or hold out. Karlsson is unlikely to get an offer sheet over $7.8 million that would give the Senators four 1st round picks. A deal in the $6.2 to $7.8 million range would give the Senators two 1st rounders as well as second and third round picks. What does Ottawa do if a contending team gives Karlsson 10 years $70 million? Having said that, as we saw this summer, offer sheets are very rare even for star players.
- Contract length: Four years is probably the worst length of contract that the Senators can sign as it will make Karlsson an unrestricted free agent at the earliest possible time. A longer deal will "buy out" some of his UFA years while a shorter deal allows the Senators to revisit Karlsson's progress.
- CBA expires: The new CBA could alter the landscape. If the new deal rolls back existing contracts or lowers the salary cap, it will certainly change the way a club handles its future contracts.
General Sens News
- Forward lines in practise: 1) Greening-Spezza-Michalek, 2) Condra-Turris-Alfredsson, 3) Foligno-Smith-Butler, 4) Daugavins-Konopka-Neil. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- Chris Phillips did not practise but Sergei Gonchar did. The pairings were: 1) Kuba-Karlsson, 2) Cowen-Gonchar, 3) Lee-Carkner. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- The six players with guaranteed selection in the All-star game will be announced with Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf and Tim Thomas currently leading the way. Karlsson has closed the gap on Kessel to 7,000 votes for the overall lead. All of the Senators are obviously very happy with the fan support. (Ottawa Sun)
- Milan Michalek hasn't scored since his return from injury but Paul MacLean thinks he is playing fine. He's still got a five goal lead over Spezza for the team lead. He only has three more assists than Craig Anderson though. (Ottawa Sun)
- Paul MacLean thinks we won't see the best of Kyle Turris until next season due to Turris missing training camp this season. Also a little story about Karlsson and Alfredsson playing keepaway. Alfie says the best player at keepaway he has ever faced was Alex Kovalev. (CBC)
- In case you missed it in the comments yesterday, Robin Lehner spoke at length (15 minutes!) to Joy Lindsay about getting in an altercation with the referees. His decision was wrong, but you can see his determination and passion for making the NHL and for his teammates. When asked what he would do if he got a lengthy suspension, Lehner responded with "I get a long time of getting jacked in the gym and coming back even better". In the end he only got three games. (Press & Sun-Bulletin)
- The NHL leaked ticket revenue and Varada took a look at this with Eugene Melnyk often crying poor. Ottawa falls in the middle of the pack in ticket revenue, far behind the other Canadian teams. But this year with the heritage jersey sales, spending far under the cap, they should be well in the green right? There is also the idea of making money from non-hockey ventures. That part I don't really agree with, as wouldn't concerts make the same amount of money whether the Senators were around or not? (Welcome To Your Karlsson Years)
- According to Corey Pronman, the top 5-6 picks in this year's draft are going to be better than usual but the 7-14 range will be below average. I guess it might hurt a little bit more now if we finish 9th or 10th. (Corey Pronman)
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Technically, concerts would probably make more if the Sens weren't around
More dates available.
This is true!
So I would like to know all this talk of non-hockey revenue?
Just because he makes money in 1 thing, why should he put up with losses in another investment?
I think Melnyk is a fan too though, so that helps.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Seeing a regular pairing of Carkner/Lee doesn’t seem too encouraging.
Matt Carkner – He makes me want Chris Phillips back.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Brian Lee makes me want Chris Phillips back!
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
… but Chris Phillips makes me want David Rundblad back, at least a little bit.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
But that’s not as funny as you don’t criticise Phillips as much!
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I thought we were laying off BLee?
poor 1st-rounder can’t catch a break.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
should cut down on the number of own goals though
maybe with Chris out, we can close our GF/GA gap.
Btw, anyone know if Phillips mentored Ryan Murray?
I feel like Letang was overpaid at the time
But obviously has grown into a more dominant player at the time. Generally I’m against long term contracts, but I would applaud a 7 yr 6 mil per deal for Karlsson. I want him locked up long term and not just because I have been wearing his jersey for about four straight months.
Four straight months?
It must smell now. :/
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
by Adnan on Jan 4, 2012 1:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not if you wear a t-shirt or something underneath the jersey
and move slowly so as to prevent much perspiration.
haha. No there's been proper washing.
I more meant I’ve stopped wearing the others, including the Alfie and Spezza jerseys
Ha, well, you're taste is pretty good too.
But I’m buying myself a heritage jersey soon for completing my next thesis chapter and it will be an Alfie jersey, it might be the last chance I get before he retires.
Your thesis is on Sens jerseys?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
No no, but I would love to write such a thing
My reward is jerseys though. Every time I finish a chapter I get some sort of jersey: hockey, soccer, baseball etc whatever.
I see two ways to go
5 or 6 year deal @ $6m per or give him a qualifying offer and see what happens with the CBA. I don’t think you want to sign him to a 1 year deal at this point because I think that the more he plays, the better he gets and the more he will cost. You want to pay your guys fairly, however, you also need a competitve team. Most players realize that, and I believe that Karlsson understands that. I don’t think he’s a guy that’ll be looking to get $8.0m a year. Though I have been surprised before.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I would like a Duncan Keith kind of deal but Ottawa has never given a deal that long. The longest one has been 7 years to Giggles.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I don't care who you are. You don't sign anyone to a 13 year deal
I don’t like the idea of signing him to a 6 year deal.
Gomez, Redden, Yashin, DiPietro, Savard, Luongo, Drury, Crosby, Lecavallier, Luongo, Ovechkin.
Ridiculous underperformace, injuries & sometimes Kovalev like play are all reasons to avoid giving stupid long contracts. I think the NBA has it right with a max 6 year contract & I would be surprised if the NHL doesn’t come back with something similar in the next CBA.
I realize there are situations where stupid long contracts work out. But to me it is just too big of a risk. I don’t like them. Having a player walk at the end of his contract sucks, but it isn’t the end of the world. If the player doesn’t have enough loyalty to his team to give a bit of a hometown discount, he’s not the type of player that I want to cheer for anyways.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I don't know, I think Crosby has been worth every penny of his deal
I think there’s a flaw in demanding that players play to a level equal to their salary every year—it’s just not realistic.
Kuba is a great example of this. He was awful last year. But we got 40 points out of him his first year, 28 his second year (and a pace for something like 47), then last year’s atrocity, and first-pairing play this year that has helped Karlsson blossom. He sure as hell wasn’t worth $3.7M last year, but over the course of his contract, I’d argue that he has given the team equal value.
Let’s say we lock him up for 10 years, $70M and next year he only gets 50 points. Is it still a risky contract for a 22-year-old defenseman? Is he only worth it if we’re paying him $100K a point? I think in this case, the investment is worth the upside. He might not be amazing every year, but no one is.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Speaking of Crosby - what about his next contract?
If he is out all year, do you think the Pens will want to only give him 2-3 years at a lower salary?
Lot depends on how much he plays next year I realise, but it will be interesting. He will be a UFA in 2013.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think it depends on the CBA
If they’re not on the hook for salary towards the cap while he’s injured or if he retires, then I’d lock him up for as long as I could. He’s clearly able to produce at the ridiculous levels he was at pre-injury, so that’s how you pay him, in my opinion.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
They would still have to pay him $8-$9 million a year though. Or would the insurance pay it?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If I'm the Penguins, it doesn't matter
That’s worth the risk. They probably earn close to that amount in Crosby merchandise every year anyway.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
my 2 cents on #87
I think he’s either done or close-to-done. The 2 ‘hits’ that put him out this latest time were nothing more than brush-by’s.
I am a fan of his game and off-ice ‘diplomacy’, and the NHL would be a far less marketable entity without him, but I fear he will announce he’s ‘taking the rest of the year off’ in the next week or so.
After that? It’s anybody’s guess.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
He's either back soon or done for the season
Career? Maybe… but not without giving it one more shot at least.
by B_T on Jan 4, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I hope not
I’m not a fanboy by any stretch, but the league is better when he’s playing.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
You are a Zack Smith fan boy
With high pitched giggles and squealing and everything.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
This is Zack Smith..
but I do NOT understand the jersey he’s wearing….huh?
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
He doesn't dive. No no, nothing about this adds up at all...
by Pmoron on Jan 4, 2012 7:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If you're actually wondering
Smith was undrafted for two years, so he had a 6 game tryout with the Manitoba Moose (Vancouver’s former farm team) during their playoff run. That’s probably when this picture was taken.
That explains why the Canucks were so angry last time they played us.
They’re mad because they lost the Z Smith sweepstakes.
by Pmoron on Jan 5, 2012 1:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The only photographic evidence
Of ZSmith giving a crap.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
He's contemplating retirement.
Even if he comes back, one poor check and it’s over for him. At this point he’s probably considering the implications it’ll have on his life – concussions and head injuries can change your outlook on life and even your ability to cope. Issues like mental health problems, memory problems etc can all come out from traumatic brain injuries, and that’s probably what he’s thinking about.
If I’m Crosby, I’m wondering whether bowing out now is the best course of action to make sure he can live to 70-80 years of age.
I understand your argument.
But the flaw is that it isn’t demanded players play to a level equal their salary every year.
I think it is very realistic to expect a player to perform to the level of his salary every year. I’m expected to perform to the level of my salary. If I were to only perform at an entry level instead of the level I’m paid at, I’m pretty sure a ’don’t worry boss, I’ll make it up to you next year’ won’t suffice.
But that really wasn’t my arguement. It isn’t that player A may have an off year sandwhiched between two good years, it is that the player may be signed to a long term 10 year contract, and then once he has that security, consistently underperform. Or, worse yet, be consistently injured for 30 or 40 games a year. That kind of salary cap hit can severly handicap a team in either of those circumstances. The contract is a lot more moveable, and also at a lot less risky if it is only 5 years in length than if it is 10.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
This is true. If Karlsson gets a 13-year deal and doesn’t feel like performing for whatever reason, we are stuck with it.
You have to be pretty sure about a player to do that long a commitment.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Heh
But it’s not realistic to compare sports to your white-collar (I assume, sorry if I’m wrong) job. Unless you signed an x-year, x-dollar contract, I don’t see the comparables.
As for your true argument, I can see what you’re saying, and I agree. You’d have to be supremely confident in a player to make a major long-term commitment to them. 7 years is plenty, and I really think these mega-long deals are more about cap circumvention than expecting players to play all the years.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I'm certain his agent wants $8M a year
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don’t see how he can ask for $8 million with a straight face. That would make him the 5th highest player in the NHL and 1st among defencemen.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Well, technically, he can't ask for anything
But I don’t see how Bryan Murray can make him an offer sheet that’s not more than a 10% raise over this season with a straight face, either—except that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
Eventually they’ll meet somewhere in the middle, but the nature of negotiation is that you try to get the best deal for your side, regardless of how fair or realistic it is for anyone else.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
You don’t think they will sign him before the season ends?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I wouldn't
There’s no real reason for the Senators to hurry. They know they’ve got his rights no matter what. But they don’t know what the landscape of the new CBA is like. Like, what happens if they sign him to a 13-year deal and then it comes down that 6 years is the max allowed? What if they load it with a bonus structure and then the rules about that change? What if his RFA rights change or they introduce a franchise tag?
I would lock him up long-term as soon as I knew what was allowed, but I wouldn’t risk handcuffing myself before that.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I think he will be worth more by the end of the season.
I get what you are saying about the CBA though. But I don’t know if the CBA is more likely to be more restrictive. Donald Fehr doesn’t sound like the kind of guy to cave in. It certainly could be more restrictive, but it could also be not.
The CBA doesn’t expire until September 15, which I would guess is right before camp. If Karlsson ends up missing camp, it could lead to a season like Doughty is having.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think he'd only be worth more if he exceeds his current point projection
I also don’t know that the next CBA is likely to be more restrictive. I just know there’s no real reason to gamble on it.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don’t know, I think keeping up with his point projection for another 40 games increases his value. Plus, there is the “respect” value of being nominated for a major award. It’s no certainly he will be, but I think there is a fairly good chance.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Really?
If you negotiate with him now, it’s under the expectation that he’s a .8 point per game player. If he finishes with 76 points, he’s met those expectations. How does that increase his value? Or did you mean because he might have a Norris nomination at that point?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Norris nomination and he’s “proven” it for longer. A full season instead of half a season.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I guess
I think he’s already proven it for this year. The next level for me is putting up the same amount of points in the playoffs.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I'd rather have him under contract sooner rather than later
I don’t want to give one of those super long term contracts, 6 or 7 is as long as I’d go, but I’d like to have him long term and I think they Spezza contract shows that it can work out alright (length and dollars)
Karlsson has just one request...
It’s not money, it’s not years, it’s not even lack of Caesar…
He just wants Peter to sing my The Erik Karlsson Song at our next game.
Otherwise he walks in 4 years.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
by Adnan on Jan 4, 2012 1:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Not worth it
Sorry, Erik.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Concerts would make the same amount of money, but the fixed costs of running an arena wouldn’t be eaten up with revenue generated by the hockey club. If the Senators weren’t around, the profits from those concerts would be required to eat those costs, leaving those events are pure (or maybe just ‘more’) profit.
Good point
But what are the fixed costs? Property tax?
Maybe maintenance, but wouldn’t those costs lower with less usage? Although as B_T mentioned, maybe usage would be the same and they’ll just have more concerts.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I doubt you'd get 41+ more concerts
And really, I was trying to say that you’d get more concert revenue than currently, not necessarily more concert revenue than the alternatives.
by B_T on Jan 4, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Well suppose you make x in net income. But x is lowered because of negative hockey income.
So without hockey Melnyk has y in net income which is higher than x.
I am going to assume no concert loses money (though I could be wrong), so adding any additional concerts would increase Melnyk’s income.
But if hockey income was offset by some fixed costs that were for whatever reason only attributed to hockey, then it can be different.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Ice maintenance!
And, uh, those banners I guess?
Concerts absolutely can lose money, but I’m not sure how many do.
But the big thing here is we’re talking purely gate revenue. If there was no hockey, there’d be no merchandise sales or television contracts to go with it. And on-site advertising would probably decline as well.
by B_T on Jan 4, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
But Melnyk claims he loses money from the Senators. That has to include Senators merchandise sales and TV revenue.
The article was talking about gate revenue, but Melnyk has said the Ottawa Senators lose money right?
The on-site advertising is a good point though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
He does claim that
At least for last year, IIRC. And it would include all of the revenue streams, yes.
Assuming the operating costs for SBP are spread evenly across all of the events, the cost per event would likely go up without the Sens because you aren’t going to find enough events to replace those 41 regular season games, handful of pre-season games and the potential for up to 16 playoff games. It might make some of those other events unprofitable. Which then reduces the number of events again, driving up the cost that much more, and so on.
I mean, this is the kind of stuff they have accounting departments for. If it’s complex enough that they need a team of people to handle it, we’ve got no hope of nailing it down considering we don’t have the actual numbers.
by B_T on Jan 4, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
And don't forget Nightbreak. He's making big bucks,
this according to capgeeks for behind the scene employees.
I was about to say, there's my compensation!
And the perks of the job, not unlike those of a hospital CEO…
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
I assume that concerts will pay for some of the fixed costs
SBP must pay regardless of usage. Any additional costs because of concerts will then be factored into the rental price of SBP. However, regardless of what SBP’s fixed costs are, the rental rates for concerts will still have to make sense to the concert organizers. Does anyone know if SBP’s paid for 100%?
Bottom line, Melynk will not rent out SBP if he’s not recovering some of his fixed costs. Am sure concerts at SBP help defray fixed costs.
I think if Stamkos didn't get an offer sheet, we can comfortably say Karlsson won't
I love the kid and think we should lock him up long term, but I don’t think he’s a more valuable RFA than Stamkos.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Agreed he won't get an offer sheet
But do you think the Sens will end up paying more the longer they wait?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Seems almost certain.
He’s not letting up. Barring something we don’t want (e.g., an injury, a drop-off in production), the sooner the better.
by sensory_experience on Jan 4, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
I do
Let’s say he hits 76 points this season. He’s only got one elite season under his belt. Say we sign him to a two-year “prove it” deal like we did with Butler, and he does prove it, which I consider pretty likely—I don’t imagine him dipping under 50 points a season without injury for the next ten years. Sustained excellence costs way more. That’s why Gonchar got so much from us even when he was clearly past his prime.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I'm not a big fan of long deals. So much can change over time.
If it’s a 6+ yr deal, then it should be a great deal for the team. Just sign a shorter deal to keep his rights, for around 5M a year.
That’s what I’d like to see.
by Pmoron on Jan 4, 2012 2:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Eric=Bobby
Adnan, surely you are not saying Eric is equal too or better than Bobby. I was lucky to see Orr play for Oshawa at age 14 & he looked then like a man playing with boys. So, you can conclude that I’m an old fart & Bobby is my #1 defenceman on my all-time all-star team. By the way, the theory was you had to keep the puck away from Orr to beat The Bruins. When that didn’t work, they tried dumping the puck in his corner to make him carry it so that they could hit him often over a long play-off series; it worked. Lesson – Eric will need to be paired with another puck moving defenceman for us to win the cup.
Yeah that's just me trying to be funny
But Mark says I am not very good at it. :(
I still would love to meet Don Cherry one day and tell him that though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
It's true
You have the comedy stylings of a brick.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Also, does this mean we shouldn’t have traded Rundblad? ;)
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Yes & no
I have regrets about giving up so soon on a guy with his potential. However, there is a lot of upside to Turris. Hopefully, Cowan will develop more offensively, or a trade or prospect will come along to match & complement Eric’s ability.
Yo Adnan
That open invite to Erik Karlsson is creepy.
His drink of choice is a KFC bucket sized mug of Cherry('s opinion) flavoured Kool Aid*
AKA whatever I am not drinking.
*Contains articial Blue colouring, sweetened with the saccharine taste of maple (leaf)
How is anyone supposed to top Sterling Snakehouse?
by worsteverything on Jan 4, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Does he like the Bruins more or the Leafs?
I am never sure.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
He coached/played for the Bruins
So I think his heart is there, but CBC (and his viewership) essentially pays him to be a Leafs fan. That, and saying anything favourable about the Leafs makes their fans forget about everything else he says in most of his incoherent rants.
It is entertaining though, isn’t it?
Just a little confused
What does it mean that if we sign him to a 7 million dollar range contract that we get two first round picks, a second and a third?
That's if someone gives him an offer sheet for 7m, and we don't match it
We get those picks as compensation.
by B_T on Jan 4, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry - if another team signs him to an offer sheet
For $7 million a season, we would be compensated with:
- two 1st rounders
- one 2nd rounder
- one 3rd rounder
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I would have been okay with that while we still had Rundblad
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
That’s a terrible return if the firsts are in the 20s. Top 10s could be a good deal though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Well, it's all hypothetical anyway
But a quick glance at Capgeek makes me feel comfortable that the teams who could afford that kind of offer probably wouldn’t be playoff teams.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I still wouldn't do it
But I think Erik Karlsson is the greatest player in the world.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think one of the biggest challenges of being a GM is thinking of your players as assets
I mean, you probably have relationships with them, and they’re men with families. Turning those emotions off and coldly evaluating them in terms of their worth to your organization has to be hard to do.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
That's why GMs should never be friends with players,
like officers are not allowed to fraternize with non officers….otherwise, it’s hard to send men to their deaths.
I hope BM doesn't send Karlsson to his death...
by spez_dispenser on Jan 4, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, Troi managed to do it to Geordi in that episode of TNG where she wanted to move up in rank and become a Commander
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
by Nightbreak on Jan 4, 2012 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Great reference!
At 22 years old, you can imagine how my trying to make a Star Trek reference (especially TNG) at a party/social gathering might get a few weird looks, but I always encourage them on the interwebs!
You're not hanging out with the right sort of geeks.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
I try to keep it as much a guilty pleasure as possible.
Besides, people usually roll their eyes a bit more when I try to mix politics and hockey, if only because Geordi or Data could probably school Stephen Harper or Stephane Dion at hockey any day of the week (seriously, Youtube them)!
Yes, but Data's working at an unfair advantage, given he's literally got encyclopedic knowledge of the game.
He even knows the day the Inter-Galactic Hockey League disbanded because they just couldn’t find enough Class P planets to hold tournaments on.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
People stopped participting because
the Klingons started carrying bat’leths onto the ice.
Well, that's one way to stop a breakaway.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Speaking of how recent performance has elevated Karlsson's worth
what do people think of Mark Stone’s WJC? He’s had a good season so far, when do you seen him possibly playing decent minutes for the Sens?
Not so sure about that.
Guy is clearly dominating at his level, but translation to NHL level will be a different test. He was still decent last night but definitely not as dominant with a couple of guys checking him in the crease. He couldn’t find space. In fact, unfortunately it reminded me a bit of Heatley in his later time in Ottawa, when he couldn’t find space and would just hover in front of the net or at the faceoff dots waiting for something to happen with his stick half-cocked.
Before I get destroyed here, I’m not saying Stone will turn into Heatley (neither the good nor the bad). Just saying some of what makes him effective may not translate as well against the higher-calibre defence in the NHL. He’s worked on his skating, but he’s going to find less space to operate in the big league. Time will tell if he can adapt.
by sensory_experience on Jan 4, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you on that
I’m not convinced that Stone’s success will translate at the higher levels of the game, but I am excited at his potential.
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For sure. Tons to be excited about.
Can’t ask much more of him at his level, from the little I’ve seen. And much better for him to have turned out to be this then the usual from that round of a draft pick.
But exactly – just a question of what he looks like as a potential NHLer. If he can continue to improve, he could have a real shot.
I will say that his playmaking last night, when he was boxed out as an in-the-slot sniper, was reassuring.
by sensory_experience on Jan 4, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
True, his 7 goals and 1 assist or whatever it was from the group stage
suggested he could be one dimensional. However, he did set up Strome and Huberdeau on several occasions because the Russians figured out he was the one that scored, and that was a good sign about his game and his adaptability.
Exactly, he has showed at least some ability to adapt.
That’s a good thing. Especially on the fly, in a tournament like this, with little time for adjustments.
by sensory_experience on Jan 4, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I was just interested in how long it will take for him to get to the NHL, if he gets there
Seems like it’s probably another couple years, but I am definitely looking forward to someone with his potential.
Agree, but Heatley is a valid comparison
Commentators were throwing big names around for comparison, even Espo. One thing both Stone & Heatley have in common is slow foot speed. One reason the Sharks I presume traded him was that he is a non factor in the play-offs when the speed and compete level goes way up. I sure hope Stone can improve because unlike Heatley, he works well down low and can sure find the open man with a sweet pass.
That’s a good question that you didn’t ask me! I think Stone did very well and obviously was happy as a Sens fan to here him talked about so much on TSN’s 21 hour a day coverage. Stil, Im a little torn on the whole thing. IMO (eeee off to a bad start here) the WJC is fun to watch has its purpose for player development. There are a lot of clutch moments and pressure situations in front of a lot of people (when its held in Canada) that can be great for a player’s development and character, Eberle an obvious example. This is helpful as a great young player might not have these opportunities if , say, they play for the Peterborough Petes. Where I am cautious coming out of the tournament is the bumping up a player’s status based mostly on the numbers they put up. I think its important to examine their performance on a game by game basis. In Stone’s case if I were a scout (which WHO KNOWS IF I AM AS THIS IS THE INTERNET AND ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE) I’d be more interested in Stone’s game against the Russians or the Finns (+/-, ice time, etc) and not put too much stock in how many goals he put up against Tajikistan, Luxembourg or Andorra in the early rounds. Of note: I had 2 assists in Canada’s game against Denmark. I think you did might have got one too on the PP. I’m not sure, I was texting through most of that game.
How is anyone supposed to top Sterling Snakehouse?
by worsteverything on Jan 4, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Please James, all questions are directed at you
and not put too much stock in how many goals he put up against Tajikistan, Luxembourg or Andorra in the early rounds. Of note: I had 2 assists in Canada’s game against Denmark. I think you did might have got one too on the PP. I’m not sure, I was texting through most of that game.
This is why we love you.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
B-Sens Joy
… is awesome. How come we get stuck with morons like Garrioch and the best reporters are on this web blog and in Bingo? Beat writers should get promoted to the big club like the players.
/also Stone is a beast. He’ll be on the 1st line with Spezza next year.
Lets trade Garrioch to the Penguins for a 7th and bring up Joy. I think she’s earned her chance with the big club.
by modsuperstar on Jan 4, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Rec'd
This is awesome, I just quoted her that.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
what a killer combination there
a player who likes to talk and a reporter who can draw it out of him. That’s an excellent piece there.
I'd like the Sens to do 7 years
This will cost them a bit more, especially for the last 3 years of the deal because those will eat up some of Karlsson’s UFA years, but Karlsson needs to be locked up for a long time.
I’d offer less money (maybe $5.5 million or so) for the first two years, but I’d go as high as $7 million, maybe $7.5 million for the last two or three years of the contract. I think that’s reasonable.
But as Mark and others have pointed out, the Sens might want to wait until the new CBA is hammered out before offering a contract to Karlsson.
When it comes to profitability of the arena, there are certain levels of staff:
You have to factor in that there’s a union floor for stage-hands and the like.
The fact that most of the arena staff are full time, there every day whether there’s an event or not. Administration, some Sensations employees, regular arena security, post-game cleaning crew (I assume they’re an outside firm).
Those of us who are ‘game-day’ staff, will be there about 50 times a year before playoffs, more if there are events like the WJHC or the Womens’ Juniors. A/V staff, Sens Foundation, Bell Capital Cup, etc.
The concession people are mostly linked to Aaramark, so who pays their salaries for selling high-priced snack food?
A Goal Horn Haiku
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That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
There's no rush with Karlsson
I’m not much of a fan of a team putting all of its eggs into one basket, no matter how talented a player is. Karlsson is a unique talent, and aside from all of the obvious offensive skills, he is in tireless condition which I’m sure keeps him from getting hurt.
I hate to say this, but realistically, all it takes is one bad concussion to reduce an asset like Karlsson to being someone you can’t get rid of. So let’s just slowly negotiate and create a good deal that doesn’t end up being a boat anchor around anyone’s neck.
With Ovetchkin, Backstrom, Green and Semin eating up a large share of the Caps cap space, that team is a perfect example of what I am talking about… all the eggs in one basket and they just can’t seem to get anywhere. Yes, that team has other problems, but the point is that signing too many guys to long term deals is incredibly risky.
What makes the best teams is not just one line full of superstars… or one defenceman… it’s the Zack Smiths having career years as a third liner.
Sure we need to sign Karlsson, but there is no rush to open the bank vault. Nobody is stupid enough to offer four draft picks for one player… not even the Leafs…
i think Karlsson's value is high right now and not likely to get higher
i don’t think a GM or agent is going to get suddenly swayed by 40 more games and a Norris nomination to go any higher than Karlsson is likely valued at right now. He’s got a big All-Star nod now, professional pundits are already talking Norris trophy, etc. He’s eating ice time and he’s demonstrating his abilities on the other side of the puck this season already. I don’t think any smart hockey person will be kidded into an under/over-valuation. Murray seems to be very fair to players in contract negotiations. I don’t expect this to be messy or overly drawn out and I’m guessing Karlsson is motivated to get it done when the time comes because he sure is thriving here.
How it gets higher is if the Sens make the playoffs and he has a strong showing. Playoff performance is always a big factor with contract negotiations.
by modsuperstar on Jan 5, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
that's a fair enough point but
i still think that with his performance where it is now that people’s expectations of him are being set high such that he’s more likely to disappoint in the playoffs than perform above expectations. In other words, among “keys to a series” will be “Karlsson leads the offense and is able to withstand hard forechecking”. And i think if he doesn’t perform well, people will give him a mulligan anyway (young team, played over their heads to get in the POs anyway, etc.)
Let’s not forget he had 6 pts in 6 PO games in 2010 so he won’t exactly be a post-season revelation if he plays well there.
Agreed
Realistically, what would Karlsson need to do to become a $9 or $10 mil player? 90 points? +40? Hart, Norris, Lady Byng, Whatever they renamed the MVP voted by the players? Conn Smythe, Stanley cup?
I think his contract will be in the $6 – $7 mil cap hit on a 6 or 7 year term. I don’t think he’ll be able to do much to his performance to change those numbers. If he stumbles the rest of the season and craps out and 60 points, we may get him @ $5.5.
The great news for us is that Karlsson has developed into a player who is talked about in the Superstar level salary range. I remember a similar post earlier, perhaps even prior to the season where $3.5 – $5.5 was being thrown around. If only BM could have talked turkey with Karlsson’s agent way back then!
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I think you're right.
It’s not going to go up or down by much. And personally, I think if someone offer sheets him, you take the picks and laugh. Sure, Karlsson is great, but multiple firsts would be a great thing to have too.
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