Silver Nuggets: Senators still in the hunt but face difficult January
by Adnan on Jan 3, 2012 1:00 PM EST
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After the Ottawa Senators host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, they will played 10 of the next 12 games on the road. The road games will include stops against eastern conference powerhouses Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, the New York Rangers and Boston as well as a four game road trip on the US west coast in San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The other two road games will be in Toronto and Montréal while the two home games will be against Philadelphia and Winnipeg. The Senators will likely be underdogs in all games except the home game against Winnipeg and the game in Anaheim.
Currently Ottawa is sixth in the eastern conference, but ninth in terms of points per game. One would think the Capitals are eventually going to take the division lead, so the final three spots will come down to a fight between Ottawa, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Florida, Toronto, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. I am writing off the Habs, Islanders and Hurricanes, go ahead and write it!
If the Senators are still in a playoff spot at the end of January, I like their chances of making the playoffs. From February onwards, 17 of their last 29 games are at home and 11 of the 12 road games are in the eastern time zone. PlayoffStatus.com gives the Senators a 55% probability of making the playoffs and SportsClubStats.com places it at 41.1%.
But how will the Senators fare in the upcoming run of 10 road games out of 13 for the rest of the month? After careful examination, I have determined that the Sens will pick up 13 points in the remaining 13 games in January.
General Sens News
- Game recap from last night. (Silver Seven, Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
- Jason Spezza is second in the NHL with five shootout goals and he is often doing it by shooting five-hole. He did the same thing last night when Erik Karlsson sent him in on a breakaway. (Ottawa Sun)
- Ottawa politicians are holding a rally to get the locals to vote for the Senators players in the all-star game. (Ottawa Sun)
- Daniel Alfredsson is healthy and enjoying a strong season with 28 points in 34 games, good for third on the team. Alfie does say that he is more tired physically than he used to be, but that has to be expected given his age. If the Senators can give him one more playoff series, would Alfie hang them up after? He's due to be paid only $1 million next season. (Senators Extra)
- This is a bit old but I just read this. Erik Karlsson discusses his haircut, his Christmas gifts for Therese, New Year's resolutions and his planned honeymoon. He's also getting married at the same place in Sweden as Alfie, aww! He also doesn't care much for a caesar. (Ottawa Sun)
- Robin Lehner says his altercation with the referee "wasn't the best choice of my life" but that he didn't intend to do anything to the referee and wanted to get through to the goaltender. That's kind of an apology...right? No? (Robin Lehner)
- A look at the Senators at (almost) the midway point of the season. No one expected the Senators to be in the hunt did they? Well...except me. ;) (Welcome to your Karlsson Years)
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I went a bit optimistic (15-16).
They keep surprising me (in a good way), so what the heck…
by sensory_experience on Jan 3, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions
That would be awesome with this schedule.
I won’t even be too disappointed with 10ish.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
You're almost sure to be disappointed, then...
But I applaud your efforts.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
Karlsson has good taste, because Caesar salad dressing is nasty
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
He wanted a caesar salad but they gave him the drink.
Bastards. :(
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Except that's what he wanted!
It’s the drink he didn’t like. I’m with him on that one for sure.
by B_T on Jan 3, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
But caesar the drink is delicious
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
I have never heard of the drink
What is it?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Vodka, Clamato (tomato juice and clam broth), hot sauce and Worcestershire sauce
Served with a stalk of celery, in a glass rimmed with celery salt.
So, it's just a Bloody Mary with Clamato instead of tomato juice?
I’d drink that. Although the best Bloody Marys are made with Spicy V-8.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Pretty much, yes
They’re terrific. And yes, quite Canadian (oddly).
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
I spent a few months working at The Maple Leaf, the Canadian Pub in London, England, and the Canadians who came in went nuts when they learned we could make Caesars. I had no idea how Canadian they were until I worked there…
by spez_dispenser on Jan 4, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
It's a Canadian creation!
And not much known outside of Canada.
by sensory_experience on Jan 4, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
ahahah. confident kid.
Are they gonna let you take another draw any time soon?
Karlsson: “I’d like to take two more so I could win them and be 66 percent.”
11 points
Beat Phoenix, Rangers, split one of the Philly games Tampa and get a few OT loser points.
By the way, Ken Campbell of Hockey News is calling Karlsson for Norris….
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/43889-Campbell-Five-issues-for-2012.html
“Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators will continue to put up his impressive offensive numbers to win his first Norris Trophy.”
by Quizzical Quorum on Jan 3, 2012 1:52 PM EST reply actions
Yes please!
"Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators will continue to put up his impressive offensive numbers to win his first Norris Trophy."
Although I think his defensive liability reputation will probably prevent him this year and Chara will likely win it, or Weber if he returns healthy.
I think Karlsson will be a finalist though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Even better
You may read Campbell’s statement so as to imply the possibility (if nothing else) of Karlsson winning more than one Norris Trophy. Hurrah for ambiguity!
As the caption says, he’s better than Bobby Orr!
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
only if Bobby Orr was your favourite player
if he isn’t Karlsson, is not necessarily better than Bobby Orr.
I am sure he is someone’s favourite, i.e. Don Cherry ;)
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Saw this and also saw that TSN has the Sens Power Ranked at 17th
now i’m starting to believe in the Mayan calendar…
The jump in the TSN Power Rankings makes sense
It’s purely stats based, and the Sens are tied for the 2nd best L10 record in the league right now. That’s going to cause a jump.
by B_T on Jan 3, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
perhaps
but for the last month or so, the Sens sure looked like an outlier being one of the only .500 or better teams ranked as low as they have been. unless goal differential is such a significant factor in how Cullen calculates these to somehow explain the seemingly poor past power-ranking.
He calculates scores for each player individually
Then combines them, with weighting based on the importance of each player’s role (ie: 1st line centre gets a higher weight than the 2nd line centre), to get a team score. Presumably (though not stated either way), the starting goaltender gets the highest weight of any individual on the team, so Andy’s GAA would be dragging the team’s ranking down.
by B_T on Jan 3, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, and he notes the following
The rankings will tend to favour teams with strong goaltending. I have no problem with this since, at the very least, solid goaltending seems to be needed to win a series of any significance.
by B_T on Jan 3, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
not if you score, score, score
i think this is an over-weighting although normally i grant that a great goaltender will carry a team. This is where in something that’s loaded with intangibles like sports, i’m loathe to leave everything to stats. I’d be interested to see where last year’s TBay ranked since i think they were one of the few teams to advance in the post-season with a negative goal differential.
That dries up in the playoffs.
We saw what happened to “score, score, score”. It met Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger and Sami Pahlsson and dried up. I would not be suprised if scoring dropped at least one goal per game in the post-season; with the refs allowing a lot more obstruction and hooking, it really becomes a three month grind. That helps our team, that has a lot of grinders and sandpaper but hinders us since Anderson or Auld probably don’t match Lunkhvist or Thomas.
by Quizzical Quorum on Jan 3, 2012 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Assuming the Sens need 50 more points to ensure a play-off spot
Things don’t look good based on their current home and away records (12-8-1 and 8-7-4 respectively).
Extrapolating from these records for their remaining home and away games results in 22 points for games won at home, and let’s say another 2 pts from OT/shoot-out losses for 24 points earned at home.
If they keep up the pace on the road which they have maintained thus far, they would earn 18 points for wins; if we say they get another 3 pts from OT/shoot-out losses on the road, that gets them 21 points.
This would result in 45 points (and that’s being generous, I think, with points earned from OT/shoot-out losses), good for 90 points altogether, which would probably mean a 9th- or 10th-place finish in the conference standings.
However, a marginal improvement in games won both at home and on the road could make up those extra 5 points (1 more win each at home and on the road, and an OT/shoot-out loss somewhere instead of in regulation), and the team would be in 8th.
If you simply extrapolate home points, you get (25/21)41 = 49
Road points = (20/19)41 = 43
So they’ll get 92 points which will likely be a point or two short, but certainly possible. Two teams have made it with 92 points in east post-lockout, one made it with 88.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
You say likely a point or two short
But 92 has been enough exactly half the time since the lock-out.
by B_T on Jan 3, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah that’s true. But there are 8 teams currently on pace for more than 92.
It’s really completely random at this point to guess whether 91 or 92 or 93 or whatever will be the required numbers.
95 I think would almost guarantee it though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
my feeling on it is that they really need to tighten up on Goals AGainst is they are going to be a play-off team. if they are able to add that to how they are currently playing, i like our chances of making the playoffs. With some key d-men out for good stretches of the past couple of months being back (hopefully soon with Gonchar), with Andy rounding into form,.. this could happen.
I think I have used a different method of calculating how the Senators would earn points (which, perhaps, I should not have called extrapolation) than you have.
I divided the number of wins from the total number of games played at home and on the road and then multiplied the resulting number in each respective case by the number of remaining games at home, in one, and on the road, in the latter.
Admittedly where I got fuzzy was in the number of points likely to be earned from OT/shoot-out losses, as I just guessed at a number in each case rather than calculated it from prior results.
95 might be a bit high
Post-lockout, the 8th place team in the east has averaged 92 points. High of 94 in 2007-2008, low of 88 in 2009-2010.
by B_T on Jan 3, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, I love Lehner again.
I really hope they don’t silence this guy when (if) he eventually gets to Ottawa:
by sensory_experience on Jan 3, 2012 3:01 PM EST reply actions
I know what I’m capable of. Me and my family and the guys that I’m working with here and my teammates, like, I know what I can do. And I don’t care who’s on the stands telling me whatever, or who’s booing me, or who’s doubting me. It’s been like that since I started hockey. I’ve been climbing upwards since I stepped on the ice when I was 11, like, no one really thought anything of me. And that’s the way it’s always been for me. I’m used to this. And I thrive on people doubting me. They can doubt me. They can hate me. They can, you know, they can tell me whatever. It wouldn’t matter. Who are they? You know? I know who I am. You know, I know what needs to be done, and I’m doing it. I’m trying every day to be better, and obviously I have a goal to come back and try to get in the flow again. It’s no secret, I’m trying every day to get better to reach my, to reach my dream. That’s what I’m chasing right now. Just, my dream is to be in Ottawa someday, and that’s never going to change. I don’t care what people think about this incident, either. Immature, whatever — I don’t think so.
Amazing.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 3, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd
So awesome. I love him.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I liked this quote more
And it’s not about me proving anything. It’s about me being a teammate and me being a guy for the team that wouldn’t just stand, watch. And if some of my teammates is getting hurt or risk of getting hurt, I will be in there, and I will help them with all my heart. And that’s just the way I am.
That’s good enough for me.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Jan 3, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And this
And if it gets a long suspension, well, I get a long time of getting jacked in the gym and coming back even better."
Ha!
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Lehner
I think this website should be updated immediately for all your Robin Lehner goodness!
by Chris Marcellus on Jan 4, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Lehner only suspended 3 games
From Joy
#BSens goalie Robin Lehner suspended three games by #AHL for his actions in Saturday’s line brawl against Syracuse Crunch. #Sens
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I ignite in my mind.
“So I saw him (Deslauriens) go out to the corner, and I just ignite in my mind.”
WANT DRAGO NAO!!!
I am gonna splode when he plays for us. MUST ISOLAT FROM BRENNAN AND GARRIOCH!
by Quizzical Quorum on Jan 3, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
ONLY?!?!
That’s a hefty suspension, in my mind. He didn’t even punch the ref! Next time, you can be sure he will…
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
Didn’t Darren say Emery got 10 and then reduced to 6 for doing the same thing?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Hmmmmmmmmmmm. Lehner
It seems ti me that with Lehner, all our eggs are in one basket. We have done this before. We are there now again.
Will Lehner be that good – that he comes and saves us?
We have lost a lot of games due to shoddy goaltending this year. Games we should have won. If we had those games in hand now – and the solid goaltending that could have won those games and could steal those few more… Wow. What couldnt we do?
I am sure most people here will agree that solid goaltending could be the difference between a prolonged rebuild and a resounding move forward. What is to be done.
Our goaltending stinks as it is. Will this be the reason we miss the playoffs for the next three years – while everything else improves? (While other teams continue to improve…); Will our up and coming talent and draft picks be sacrificed to satisfy unneccesary stop-gap measures?
BM has to be sweating over this. I know I am. The goaltending issue remains our most evident weak link. I dont know if Lehner is going to be the one to change this for us.
Help us Obi Wan Kenobi, you are our only hope.
I mentioned this over in the 2012 fanshot awhile back. I would advocate using a 2nd rounder(I know we don’t have one, but figure we’ll have one by draft day somehow) to draft another goalie. I think if you look around the NHL it shows that you don’t necessarily have to draft high on a goalie. Backstrom was undrafted, Lundqvist was a 7th rounder, Thomas and Vokoun 9th rounders. It just shows that there is no exact science to grooming a goalie. But the thing I do notice is that the teams that do groom goalies seem to do it in bunches, like Minnesota, Nashville, San Jose and Anaheim. I think personally I’d much rather have more goalie prospects pushing forward than to pin our hopes on one prospect and cross our fingers.
VASILEVSKIY
I don’t care if he collapsed in the third last night, he was freakin’ amazing at times for the Russians. And he’s only 17.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
The first 2 periods was talent
The 3rd period was experience
he's certainly a good option
and i have definitely been thinking that goaltending depth is something we need to deal with. you look at the tandems that some teams have and have needed to tap into because of injuries… we might have that to draw on for a time (if Anderson is able to stay in his current groove) but there’s nothing in the farm after that.
You are right to an extent
Beyond Lehner, there is no goaltending depth in the organization. BM is aware of this. I would expect the team to use 5th, 6th or 7th rounders on goaltenders this year to see if he can’t find some depth and perhaps a diamond in the rough. Generally speaking though, there are goaltenders available through the season and in the off season whom will fill a backup role with the team. While it would be nice to have a Cory Schneider or Anders Lindback in the organization in addition to Lehner, it isn’t necessary. Not as long as there are teams like Toronto willing to trade players like Tuuka Rask within their division.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Hahahahahaha, I love this:
“After careful examination, I have determined that the Sens will pick up 13 points in the remaining 13 games in January.”
Adnan has determined it as such! There is no longer a need to play the games, just give Ottawa the 13 points!
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 4, 2012 8:55 AM EST reply actions
But I already carefully examined it. :(
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I settle on 16 points while staring out the window
and wondering what I’m gonna have for dinner…..does that count for careful examination? Dinner will be chicken pie by the way, laced with red wine.
Fair enough - I hope your careful examination was on the conservative side then
About this red wine laced chicken pie…sounds delicious!
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