Silver Nuggets: Senators face easier schedule after the break
by Adnan on Jan 23, 2012 1:00 PM EST
in Silver Nuggets
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PrintThe Ottawa Senators will play their last two games before the all-star break tonight in Los Angeles and tomorrow night Kyle Turris will return to Phoenix for the first time. The Senators have gone 2-1 on the current road trip after going 3-0 on a road trip last week. Clearly, this stretch of road games did not derail the season, and one has to think the Senators will continue to stay in playoff contention. After the all-star break, the Senators will play one more road game in Boston, and then 17 of their last 29 games will be at home. Only once will they leave the eastern time zone (Winnipeg) and two separate 3-game road trips will be the only trips longer than two games.
The schedule will definitely be easier towards the end of the season, but where can Ottawa expect to finish? The Senators are still 9 points clear of 9th place Toronto albeit with three more games played. One point a game (or 14-14-4 for example) would leave the Senators with approximately a 95% chance of a playoff spot.
It is unlikely that Ottawa passes Philadelphia for fourth, or hold off Pittsburgh for fifth. A sixth place finish would likely leave the Senators playing a Washington Capitals team that Ottawa has failed to beat in three tries this season but generally played well against. If Florida ends up winning the division, Ottawa might even end up as slight favourites.
Oh and...GO PATS! :)
Here are today's links:
- Erik Karlsson was obviously not happy about being called out as a diver. He says he has never taken a dive in his career. I recall him doing it once or twice, but every player does that. (Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
- Ian Mendes went through every Erik Karlsson penalty in his career and found out that he had been called for diving only once. However, that one game, plus the one in Anaheim and then the game in San Jose where Patrick Marleau bloodied Erik Karlsson with an elbow, that's three separate officiating crews who might think Karlsson is a diver. Could this be be something that plagues him? (Sportsnet)
- Karlsson for his part then tries to give the referees an olive branch by saying everyone makes mistakes. Probably for the best not to keep calling them out I guess. Karlsson also calls Alfie a young one. Lastly, Alfie gets a haircut in Los Angeles at a place that Rod Stewart visited. (Ottawa Sun)
- Jason Spezza is proud that the Senators have gone over two months without losing consecutive games in regulation. Ottawa's been very consistent for a while haven't they? (Ottawa Sun)
- The Senators playoff chances are near Boston Red Sox levels in September. What could go wrong!? (Senators Extra)
- Another Boston Red Sox reference here... (Ottawa Citizen)
- Bryan Murray just finished his annual scouting meeting where he discussed which players might be available around the league. As a great Scottish knight once, it's squeaky bum time. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Paul MacLean was a goal scorer in his day and wasn't asked to back check. But it is a different game now. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Bobby Butler and Mark Borowiecki will return to the lineup tonight, Andre Petersson and Matt Carkner will be the scratches. (Allen Panzeri)
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I also say GO PATS
Only because I hate the giants…..so very very very much.
I hate the Pats and I hate the Giants. And I hated it the first time around they played. And this is the second year in a row that teams I dislike will be matched up, as I really don’t like the Packers or Steelers either.
by modsuperstar on Jan 23, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
I voted to play Philly.
Florida would probably be the ‘easiest’ to play against, but I like the way our team plays against the Prongerless Flyers. Also, ten days of Bryz explaining that he can’t stop a puck would be priceless.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Could be fun to watch the goalie-go-round in action again!
Seems to me like Bryz has not turned out to be the solution – perhaps Philly should looking for a strong backup at the deadline.
Meh, who wants that sieve?!?
Wait, which one am I talking about?
I’ll take Auld’s 1 yr, 1 million dollar contract over Bryzgalov’s 9 yr, 50 million dollar contract.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
I say anyone but Caps and Bruins.
I think this team has upset potential with any team though.
by Pmoron on Jan 23, 2012 1:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The Bruins won't be getting a lot of votes
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
First round fodder for sure.
As much as I have high hopes I just don’t see this team contending for a cup. It would be nice to get a soft first round matchup if for nothing other than getting maximum playoff experience for the yung’uns.
That's the spirit.
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Who knows, I was shocked we took 3 of 4 points against Philly.
We still have four games against Boston, it’ll be interesting to see how that works out.
The Adnan Agenda
3 Karlsson links, 2 to New England sports, and 1 Manchester United. Throw in a few about Alexander Semin and how fighting is bad…
Good Nuggets though, thank you. I’m very intrigued by the upcoming schedule and how everything will play out for the Sennies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 1:19 PM EST reply actions
Stoke and then Bolton?
Yer ’avin a laugh mate!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
There's no more laughter on Merseyside...
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
For the record, my favourite non-Sens player is Ovechkin, not Semin. ;)
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I voted Penguins
Because I hate the Penguins and nothing pumps me up like playing the Penguins.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Joe Juneau
Am I the only one who entirely forgot Joe Juneau played for the Sens? This article mentioned it and I had to look it up.
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Ottawa/2012/01/22/19279651.html
I didn’t knwo that either.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I didn't know. Juneau?
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Weekly projection update
Using the blend of season home/away records and last 10 game record, the projected final standings in the east are:
1. NY RANGERS – 114
2. BOSTON – 113
3. WASHINGTON – 92
4. PHILADELPHIA – 106
5. OTTAWA – 103
6. PITTSBURGH – 99
7. NEW JERSEY – 93
8. FLORIDA – 91
9. TORONTO – 87
10. NY ISLANDERS – 82
11. WINNIPEG – 80
12. MONTRÉAL – 78
13. TAMPA BAY – 75
14. CAROLINA – 74
15. BUFFALO – 67
Projecting based on JUST the full season record results in the same 8 teams in the playoffs, but in a different order. Using just the L10, Florida falls out in favour of the Islanders. Ottawa faces Florida under the full season record projection, Philly under the L10.
For game results for this week, the projection puts Ottawa’s most likely result as 2-0-0 (with a 48.75%).
Ha at Buffalo at #15.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
In 2 of the 3 models, too!
They were 14th (by 2 points) in the full record model.
What I found interesting was that across all 3 models, there was little movement in the seeding (outside the SE conference winner changing hands). And only 3 playoff teams (under any model) had more than a 3 point variance in their point totals between the models.
Meaning no offense, but...
Isn’t that probably the models taking the current standings (or recent results) too much into account?
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
For the L10, definitely
But not for the full season record. That one puts too little emphasis (ie: none at all) on recent performance.
The one I actually posted… it’s hard to say. I use 55% home or away, 45% L10. I’ve considered 60/40, but it’s an admitted shot in the dark either way.
The teams that move very little in their points totals between the models is actually very telling though – their L10, home and away, and full records are all very similar. This indicates that they’re running neither hot or cold right now, and can be expected to continue their current pace reasonably well.
I just think that significant shifts in the standings are probably more influenced by things like injuries and strength of schedule (though these are obviously far more difficult to take into account).
Projections based on a mix of the standings and L10 are probably the most accurate, and will give us a better idea of which teams will be in the hunt for the playoffs. However, they are unlikely to predict much change, since they’re entirely based on past results (whereas strength of schedule, for instance, isn’t).
That make any sense?
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Well, every projection is based on past results
Even ones that use strength of schedule, as that strength measurement is partially based on past results.
That’s not to say they aren’t more robust – they are. This is a fairly simple model, by my own admission.
I don’t think there’s any way you can reasonably take injuries into account. You don’t know what injuries are going to happen, and you don’t know when currently injured players will be back. You just have to cross your fingers and hope it comes out in the wash, so to speak.
I hear you on all of that. Wasn’t a criticism, merely a comment in response to your surprise that the playoff picture didn’t change much.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, that was between the different models
Not between the models and the current standings.
I didn’t expect so many teams to have their L10s be so similar to the full season numbers. They’re at opposite ends of the bias spectrum, so I expected more movement than what was there.
Or rather, I expected more distributed movement – the movement was there, but it was mostly teams out of the playoffs that had bigger differences in their potential point totals between the models.
And I really didn’t expect 3 teams to have the exact same points total between all 3 models.
Nor do I
But I didn’t see them getting 60 points in 50 games, either.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
103 points mean we have to be 11 games
over .500 in the remaining 32 games. Something like 21-10-1. Maybe, but a pretty tall order.
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
We're .600 right now, and 103 points is 0.628 on the season
That would take a 0.672 record in the last 32 games. That’s (technically) less than 5 points above our current season pace.
Quite doable I agree. Won't that be something?
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
It would be!
We were expected to end up where, somewhere in the 60s for points?
I think we'll get there for sure.
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
The numbers don't lie!
They may be horribly wrong, but that’s an honest mistake.
Joking aside, I think the number is likely inflated due to their recent winning streak. But even their full season PPG pace puts them at 98 points for the season. So I think 103 is within reach, even if my gut is saying “not too damned likely”.
Senators have overachieved to this point on a 98-point pace, and people expect them to hit 103?
Crazy how expectations change.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
A little bit of history...
I wonder what Adnan’s reaction would be if this bit of history repeated itself:
Classic moment there with Hurme…
I can’t view YouTube at work, but I am assuming it is the Giants late winner?
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
No it's one of the most classic brawls in Senators history against
From a game with the LA Kings in 2001. With the very memorable moment of goaltender Jani Hurme being unable to get his glove off fighting Felix Potvin, so he dragged the fight over to the bench and stuck his arm out for the guys on the bench to help him get it off. Lots of debates as to whether that counted as players on the bench taking part in the fight for disciplinary purposes.
Also featured LA King Adam Mair leaving the bench to join the brawl.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 23, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
People have been hoping for that for ages.
Not likely to happen. The rosters just aren’t the same. We had Redden, Persson, Hnidy, Neil, Chara, Roy …
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
I figure if us not winning in LA in 2002 is a relevent fact
Then bringing up this is fair.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 23, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
"Easy" schedule after the break
I’m not sure that Boston and then a back-to-back against the resurgent Islanders and our biggest rivals is the easiest way to start an easy schedule.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 1:57 PM EST reply actions
Well I was referring to 17 home games out of 29 after the Boston game, no more western trips, only one game outside eastern time zone and no road trips over 3 games.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I know.
Not a criticism of your article. Merely an observation that next week is a tough one to follow a long road trip.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
The Bruins went to the White House today
Apparently Tim Thomas didn’t show up. No official reason, but apparently Thomas is a staunch Republican.
HA!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
We should rename SBP to White House then...
Thomas has showed up here too many times in recent past…
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
by TaBu on Jan 23, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's a silly reason not to go to the White House
You may not respect the man, but you should still respect the office.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Maybe he also saw Obama on Mars and knows what he's capable of.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Pfft
Tim Thomas would have never made it into that program. He didn’t get good at anything until he was old.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Let's face it. Tim Thomas is also a time traveller.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
I also wonder what he can point to (outside of health care) that Obama has done to make a Republican dislike him.
I would think that those who lean left have more reason to be upset with Obama than those who lean right.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Oh, I'm sure they can find something
Partisan politics are stupid.
Lets face it, a lot of Americans are pissed
a black man is living in their White House. The subject is like an elephant in the room everyone tries to ignore.
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Can we talk about religion too?
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Rhetorical questions.
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
OBAMA ATTENDS CHURCH
I’m not sure what denomination off the top of my head, but I’m sure it’s disliked by someone.
BUT HE'S A MOOSLEM!
Quite possibly the most ignorant thing I’ve ever heard. Not because it’s inaccurate, but because WHO THE HELL CARES?
Haha, it's a joke. Tif is a graduate student & a Muslim to boot, I think.
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
I would imagine most of the people who thought he could keep the promises he made are upset with him
As if Congress would somehow become less corrupt and partisan because he was elected.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Unfortunate given how much Obama has been pumping his tires lately...
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Jan 23, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
We will finish 5th or higher
That is my guess. Should be great to get Philadelphia in first round. Pittsburgh(6) can play Washington(3) – league will be happy :)
We still have to play Boston 4 more times… but there are some parts on the sched that look a bit easier too. Frankly, playoffs will be amaizing result, but home ice is not out of reach either, I am not even sure I want to see another trade this season anymore. I hope Murray is not showcasing Mark Borowiecki and Andre Petersson, unless he gets… nah, one Kyle Turris is enough per season.
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Bobby Butler will play on Spezza's wing tonight per Mendes
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Hope he gets to stay there long enough to refind last year's chemistry
It’s one of the only things that went RIGHT last year, ’twould be a shame for it to be lost completely.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 23, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think last year went brilliantly
After all, it led to this year.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Post February last year is the main reason
plus PM why we are surprised, but not shocked at the way this season is unfolding.
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Just realized what I said had nothing to do with what you guys were discussing.
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Hahaha.
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
If you see the headline "Eberle Ottawa-bound"...
Don’t be taken in as I was.
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 6:08 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Dear Florida Panthers,
Sorry we don’t respect you.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
God I hope we don't come to regret that poll
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 23, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
Be careful what you wish for.....having said that, I voted Florida...yikes!!
by whatsinaname on Jan 23, 2012 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
There should have been an option for...
Playoffs. I just want to be in the playoffs.
Shrubberies are my trade. I am a shrubber. My name is Roger the Shrubber. I arrange, design, and sell shrubberies.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 24, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Why would we respect them?
At this point, I’ll be surprised if they even make it.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 25, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
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