Silver Nuggets: Murray eyes 'substantial' piece
by Adnan on Jan 19, 2012 1:04 PM EST
in Silver Nuggets
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PrintRemember last week when Bryan Murray wanted to add at the deadline? Well he was speaking of that again yesterday, but now Murray specifies that while the depth is okay, the Senators need to add a substantial piece at the deadline. So what could this piece be? I am assuming a backup goalie, while a substantial improvement to Alex Auld, isn't what he means.
- Star rentals: Zach Parise is an unrestricted free agent after this season, but the price will be likely very high for a rental. Ryan Suter is also an unrestricted free agent while Shea Weber is an restricted free agent, but the asking price will again be very high, I see almost a zero chance of the Sens trading for either defenceman. Also, both the Devils and Predators are in a playoff spot. While I would love to see Alexander Semin in Ottawa (I am alone in this I realise), I would prefer that be in the summer rather than via a trade.
- Bobby Ryan: Ryan has been linked in trade rumours for a while. He is 24-years old, has three more years at $5.1 million and has had three consecutive 30-goal seasons and is on way to a fourth. He has a better pedigree than Phil Kessel did at the time of his trade, so the price would be very, very high.
- Other rentals: Teemu Selanne, Shane Doan, Ray Whitney, Ryan Smyth, Pavel Kubina are all older players that are free agents.
- Kyle Turris type trade: Murray might be looking to trade one prospect for another. This might involve trading players like Stéphane Da Costa, Matt Puempel and/or draft picks. Mika Zibanejad might even be a candidate.
Tonight's game
- Everyone predicts a loss tonight except Steve Lloyd. Peter said 4-2 Sharks. (Senators Extra)
- Game preview for tonight. (Senators Extra, Fear the Fin)
- Daniel Alfredsson is very happy about being named on of the captains for the all-star game and looks forward to going up against former team-mate Zdeno Chara. Alfredsson has already announced Erik Karlsson will be his first pick because Karlsson is great and because Alfie's children will be disappointed if he doesn't. I assume he wasn't referring to Karlsson as one of his children. (Senators Extra)
- Brian Burke is happy Dion Phaneuf responded to the 'cheap hit' by Nick Foligno. (Senators Extra)
- The Senators are heading west this year in a much better position than last year. They are in fifth place, on a great run and have some good prospects waiting in the wings. Plan the parade down...Bank Street for 2014? (Ottawa Citizen)
- Five reasons for the Senators multiple wins despite falling behind early. (Ottawa Sun)
- Patrick Wiercioch returned to practise today. Great to see. (Joy Lindsay)
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Unintentionally funny headline
Thanks Adnan!
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 1:17 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Ha!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Further fun with numbers: Pace and the playoff cutoff
Taking the home and away PPG pace, mixing in the L10 with a slight bias towards the season numbers (55:45) and applying them to the remaining home and away games, we get the following standings:
1. NY RANGERS – 116
2. BOSTON – 109
3. WASHINGTON – 98
4. OTTAWA – 107
5. PHILADELPHIA – 106
6. NEW JERSEY – 104
7. FLORIDA – 91
8. PITTSBURGH – 89
9. TORONTO – 86
10. WINNIPEG – 80
11. NY ISLANDERS – 79
12. MONTRÉAL – 75
13. BUFFALO – 71
14. TAMPA BAY – 71
15. CAROLINA – 71
(tie breakers between Buffalo, Tampa and Carolina are rough guesses based on current win:SO win ratios)
by B_T on Jan 19, 2012 1:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Very interesting, thanks.
I imagine projections that include form get more accurate after the all-star break, which can often be momentum-shifting. (Plus, obviously, there are fewer games left to project.)
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Probably
And honestly – projections like this one I did, while relatively easy to do, leave out a lot of factors such as opponent strength, schedule issues (like Boston’s 5 game week this week, or Vancouver’s 2), etc.
And of course, the ever changing unpredictables like injuries. I fully expect Pittsburgh to pick up the pace a bit if they get some of their injured players back soon enough. And Toronto could drop in pace if someone mysteriously hits Kessel in the knee with a tire iron on his way to the ASG….
Or maybe that would just knock it back into place?
Or might have, were he not faking the initial injury.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Unweighted results (provided for amusement, probably less accurate)
Using just overall record:
1. NY RANGERS – 116
2. BOSTON – 113
3. WASHINGTON – 95
4. PHILADELPHIA – 108
5. OTTAWA – 99
6. NEW JERSEY – 98
7. PITTSBURGH – 95
8. FLORIDA – 95
9. TORONTO – 89
10. WINNIPEG – 84
11. BUFFALO – 77
12. MONTRÉAL – 75
13. NY ISLANDERS – 75
14. TAMPA BAY – 73
15. CAROLINA – 68
Using just L10:
1. OTTAWA – 116
2. NY RANGERS – 115
3. WASHINGTON – 104
4. BOSTON – 106
5. NEW JERSEY – 110
6. PHILADELPHIA – 104
7. NY ISLANDERS – 86
8. FLORIDA – 85
9. TORONTO – 82
10. PITTSBURGH – 82
11. WINNIPEG – 76
12. MONTRÉAL – 74
13. CAROLINA – 74
14. TAMPA BAY – 66
15. BUFFALO – 65
by B_T on Jan 19, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Projections based only on your last ten games...
That’s the official “we’ll win the cup next year” statistical approach of Leafs fans and media everywhere (most often used in late March and April as the Leafs make their habitual run on 9th place.)
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So true....
I just love how low the floor is on 8th place in that one, too.
And that it puts the Islanders in the playoffs but leaves the Leafs in 9th (which, if you noticed, is where they seemed to end up no matter how robust the model was that I used).
PS: Rec’d
I think you could enter any numbers and the leafs would come out in 9th
It’s a phenomenon that transcends science and reason.
Note that this is also true of TSN’s power rankings.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
If you want to get more accurate
Project to game 60 (all teams), then project final 22 assuming:
- ottawa splits games against teams within reach (i.e. +/- 5 pts in standings)
- loss to any team above that
- win against any team below that
Don’t have time @ work to do this, but I think that gives you a realistic projection of where Ottawa will end up.
My guess is this ends up being 7-10th place, certainly not the positioning that warrants Murray paying any significant price to make a run for the playoffs this season. If he can pull another Turris out of a dark corner somewhere great, but I hope whoever he picks up is someone we’d sign rather than rent.
One exception – Bobby Ryan. If he’s up for grabs, we should try to snag him only to keep him off the leafs. Even if it’s a 3 way trade to get him out of our division (e.g. to snag Parise or something).
Here is my simple projection of that
At current pace, Senators get to 72.5 points after 60 games. Then in the final 22 games, 5 points in 60 games is 0.0833 points per game. So using that we beat:
We beat:
Isles (3 times)
Montreal (3 times)
Buffalo
Winnipeg
Carolina
Toronto
Tampa Bay
We lose to:
Boston (3 times)
Chicago
NYR
Philly
We split 5 games (2-2-1 record) with
Caps
Panthers
Devils (twice)
Penguins
That’s 13-8-1 for 27 points leaving us at 99.5 points which would be higher than 7-10 I would guess.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Incidentally we are on pace for 99 points using whole season right now.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Thanks Adnan "Stats-on-demand" !
Looks like a playoff appearance, but I think still ranked in the 5-8 range.
I’ll stick by the suggestion that Murray doesn’t get any rentals for this season. 5-8 might mean a short showing in the 2nd season and I wouldn’t want to give up Zibanejad or similar for that.
Is it wierd that I've reached a point where I trust in Murray completely re: trades?
considering the fact that, retroactive to Michalek beasting out this year the Heatley trade looks great I now have to, unless someone can correct me here, go back as far as the Vermette/Leclair trade to find a true stinker. Michalek, Turris, Anderson, the huge pile of high picks last draft…hell, even Cullen and Sutton seem to be consensus ‘good rentals’. I can’t deny that he’s given up a lot to make these aquisitions, but MAN have they panned out.
Scholar, Gentleman, Shameless Sens Homer with a Heart of Gold.
by Johnny_Spectacular on Jan 19, 2012 1:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
correct me if im wrong,
but in the vermette/leclaire deal did we not also get a 2nd rounder who just so happened to be lehner?
Anybody else think "NHL Hour with Commissioner Gary Bettman" sounds like a fake show from a SNL skit?
I keep imagining Bettman asking Murray to touch his monkey...
Maybe he's the "substantial piece" that Murray is eyeing?
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
By "Substantial"
I hope BM intends to add quality “emerging” players that will come at a relatively moderate cost to us, that will bolster our current rebuild efforts, and continue to bring added value to the team for years to come – rather than any high profile veterans who will cost us dearly in terms what we have to give up, who will eat cap space, and ultimately reward us with a diminishing quality of play for the time they are with the team.
I hope he leans heavily on his scouting and snags us a couple of younger players in exchange for non essential prospects and draft picks.
I'm not sure what we'll get.
But we’ve got a lot of guys vying for the top 6, but none are proven yet. I think giving up some of those prospects for a younger, established guy who is entering his prime (Ryan etc), would be wise since not all of those guys are going to pan out. Advantage of another older guy is that they would be smarter and hopefully calm the play down.
Thanks!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Overpayment
Every year we see GM’s overpay on players. This year is different because there are quite a bit of young players available. But like Adnan correctly pointed out, the price will be steep. Brian Burke has been going for the home run deal for years now, and it worked once in Anaheim ( even if he inherited the team from Murray)
Long story short, my question is: Do you guys think it’s worth going after an established young player, even if it means possibly giving up on some prospects? There are a few possibly available who have had success in the league already
by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 19, 2012 2:39 PM EST reply actions
I do.
You’re trading an unknown for a new commodity. As long as the young player can contribute for several years, it’s worth it. But then you have to pay for that “certainty” and that’s a concern.
Right there with you..
I wouldn’t be all that upset to see BM package Noesen, Butler, DaCosta and our 1st to get us something like Ryan. But I wouldn’t spend that on Parise, unless I was sure I’d get him under contract.
I'd be okay with a conditional.
Like if it was for UFA/RFA for example. If he resigns here, they get a first. If not, then no pick.
Sounds like MacLean might be sacrificing tonight's game
During practice today, Alex Auld is taking shots in the starter’s net. Will get confirmation shortly.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Anderson regressed to the mean; Auld will too
Auld is too good a goalie to maintain his terrible pace. He’ll come around.
by TheGuineaPig on Jan 19, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t mind the move personally, first game of west coast trip, only one day off in between, there is a good chance we lose even with Anderson.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Dont be too negative
Auld could have easily won the game in Vancouver
UPDATE
Craig Anderson is the first goalie off the ice…so maybe he does start after all. MacLean update coming in 30 mins.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Trade for Ryan!!!!!!!!
Bobby Ryan for Z-Bad and Stone or Z-Bad and Siflverberg.
Would Irk Brian Burke so much to have his boytoy mancrush playing for Ottawa.
If you want to know what I mean, read Burkes sycophantic pronouncements about this kid when he drafted him.
Probably not enough
Ryan >>> Kessel when he was traded. So… more than 2 × 1st rnd + 2nd rnd.
It would probably take a roster player, two prospects and a pick. Or some combination of that.
Borowiecki plays tonight per Mendes
Mark Borowiecki (@TheBoroCop) will make his NHL debut tonight in San Jose.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Seems that way
No changes to the forwards during practice.
I would think
you wouldn’t want two new faces on the same night. Borocop tonight and maybe Petersson in the next game?
Thanks! Been lurking for a while.
Never had anything important enough to say to go thru registration. But dammit, I had to get in on this one! :)
Works out well for you, you can do your articles separately!
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
they were already written as separate articles
I’ve had them done since the recall, heh.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
I saw
But if they were playing same night, I assumed you would combine. :P
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Alright Anderson plays - false alarm of an Auld sighting
Paul MacLean confirms that Craig Anderson will start in goal tonight vs SJ.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
There isn't a realistic trade I could think of
That wouldn’t hurt Ottawa in the long run.
Even the Bobby Ryan trade would be more than a pick and a prospect. It would probably involve a lateral move as well. Who would we be willing to give up that would make it worth it for them?
Honestly I think BM is just playing the media in order to up the asking price for other teams.
Any trade for Ryan means you get 3 years of Ryan
This is not a rental player, this is a deal FOR the long term
Also, as much as I love Alfredsson, he WILL need to be replaced sooner or later.
He hasn’t slowed much yet, but it will happen. He can’t play at this level until 48.
Bobby Ryan might fit that bill nicely. Wonder if he can play RW?
Combined into a single uber-being? BobbyTheShrubber?
He would have all of our best traits: Bobby Ryan’s abilities, money, appearance, and life.
But none of our weaknesses: My abilities, money, appearance and life, and Bobby Ryan’s having two first names.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
So if we give up Stone or Zbad or Pageau and a first + Zsmith or someone similar
You still think it’s worth it in the long run?
It would be wicked to have him and he is proven, just seems a bit like you’re mortgaging the future to pay the rent.
Though the prospect of having Ryan and Michalek on either side of Spezza is appealing.
Mortgaging your future
is trading picks/prospects for rentals or aging players (with all apologies to Gonchar). Ryan is signed thru 2015, so three more seasons. At 24, you can expect him to get better for several more years.
There is no moving Z.Smith
make animated gifs like this at MakeAGif
by StraightFromTHM on Jan 19, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Let’s trade for Ryan Bobby and Luke Adam then trade up to draft Ryan Murray. We can’t lose!
Co-manager, Silver Seven
If it is Bobby Ryan...
I wouldn’t give up Mika Z.
I’d do one prospect, one current roster player, and a future pick or two. Something like…
Zack Smith or Greening, Stone, and a 2nd & 3rd Rounder.
But I would also like another body back, preferably a stay at home dman (even from the minors).
But I may be on crack though.
"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu
Greening + ZBad + 2nd would be well worth it.
Doubt he’d go that cheap tho.
But think about it – if ZBad turns out to be half the player Ryan is, that’s a huge success. Bird in the hand and all that.
"Operation Hotmother"
Unless anyone has any better ideas, I think this should be the code name for Murray’s search for the missing link.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 4:56 PM EST reply actions
rec'd so hard
That’s Polly?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 20, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
No trades!
The fans don’t want it! We don’t want to see another:
Campoli
Comrie
Stillman
Saprykin (sounds like a spice)
Arnason
Bondra
Simpson
roll through here, add nothing in the playoffs, and be gone a year later.
Bad idea!
Comrie, Stillman and Saprykin were all pretty good.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
Comrie and Stillman were pretty good.
FIFY
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
But...
Did they help in the playoffs? I would say the result would have been the same without them. Or better with the strength of team chemistry? There’s something to be said for dancing with the girl you brought. (or whatever that saying is).
I thought stillman did
Though the end result wasnt what i wanted
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Saprykin was awesome. He wasn’t a goals guy, but he hustled his ass off and definitely contributed to our Cup run. Not every player is a failure because they don’t score a lot. Looking at his stats he was playing 13-18 minutes a game in Phoenix, then went down to 5-8 a game in Ottawa. Anyone who scores a goal who wins us a playoff game is alright in my book.
by modsuperstar on Jan 19, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
What about Smolinski? Varada? Leschyshyn? Sillinger? Those guys came in around the deadline, and were all pretty good contributors.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 20, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
not necessarily saying this is a good idea, just kinda wondering
if we overpaid a team for a young player who may not be working out well there, kind of like the turris situation, only giving up more for a more experienced young player. For example, what if a guy like pk subban, tyler ennis, james van riemsdyk, chris tanev, or david perron could be available for say 2 prospects and our 1st round pick? pageau, fredrik claesson and our 1st for subban? or say borowiecki, puempel and our 1st for JVR or david perron? i think that this is overpayment, but to have those 22-24 year old players who have experience in the league may be all we need to contend next year.
I, for one, will be unequivocably cheering for NJ and and Pittsburgh tonight
And the Wild.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 6:31 PM EST reply actions
I can't bring myself to cheer for Minnesota...
Sorry, I know it makes sense to do so, but I just can’t.
ALFIE! ALFIE! ALFIE!
There's no sense to it. It's just a hierarchy of hatred.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
You don't mean to cheer for Pittsburg nor NJD because we are fighting them
for 4th and 5th spots. We are not going to catch Boston nor Rangers, but NJ & Pitts might catch us.
by whatsinaname on Jan 19, 2012 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
They might, but I'd rather pretend we're fighting for the top spot until we're not
And you know who they are fighting right now? The leafs. For the playoffs. Go penguins.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 19, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Damn you Murray! Damn you! -_-
When he first said that was looking for a ‘’top six foward’’ last week, I fell off my chair. What’s going throught that man brain? I think this years success have blind him and some of you too. We won 6 games rallying from a deficit in the 3rd this year, can you imagine if we had lost those? We would actually be 20-22-6, less sexy heh?
We are still rebuilding this year. Yes we are far ahead of what was expected but we still aren’t contenders. Don’t let the success blind you! Patience! We got to be patient for the gods sake.
See pittsburg, Chicago, Boston and detroit? What they all have in common is that they won the cup lately but how they got there? Wise drafting is the answer. Staal, crosby, malkin, toews, kane, keith, letang, datsyuk, zberg, lidstrom, lucic, krejci, Howard, bergeron etc.
ALL the key pieces of those teams were drafted. Those teams has been patient and these days, they are all perenial contenders and powerhouses in this league.
Our turn will come, I’m pretty much sure of it, sooner than later, we will be a powerhouse too. Murray has done a great job in the drafts that’s why I don’t understand why he and some of you guys are willing to blow it all. Let’s not sacrifice precious assets to get ryan or any one else just because we are a playoff team this year. Let’s not fall back in our old ‘’win now’’ mentality that has led us to 0 cup in thousand years. Let’s be patient. Please murray, for the god’s sake and mine, let just stick to the plan and continue the rebuilt.
Boston did not get there by drafting
There two main pieces were:
Chara – free agent
Thomas – free agent
In fact I read some where ( can’t remember) how many of their main pieces were trade/free agency.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I see what you mean, but...
I have to disagree to an extent.
I wouldn’t mind giving up some pieces (Z-bad is off-limits, though_ to land a player like Ryan, but I would be horrified with Murray s a GM if he went after rental players who could walk for nothing.
The allure of a player like Ryan is his pedigree (about to have his 4th 30+ goal season, if I read that right) and he’s locked up for a few more years, which would bring him right into his prime. He’s a big piece that you can build around, especially for a rebuilding (or retooling, whatever you want to call it) team like the Sens are.
ALFIE! ALFIE! ALFIE!
Go big or go home.
if we don’t want an older rental, but a “Turris”, we should be prepared to sacrifice prospects & drafts for the likes of Suter or Brown. No pay, no gain.
Murray's Substantial Silver Nuggets.
I’d be disappointed if we gave up Z-Bad; not because I don’t trust Murray, but because I’m excited to see how he turns out.
On a related note, did anyone notice Mika’s twitter post regarding his brother? The one that said his brother wants him to go by Z-Bad.
S7S: setting ALL the trends!
by Pmoron on Jan 19, 2012 8:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think the Sens do need a substantial piece to compete: A 3-4 defenceman
Neither of Brian Lee or Matt Carkner instil much confidence, and in the event of an injury they’d both have to be in the Sens lineup. That’s a scary possibility, especially considering the limited effectiveness of Chris Phillips so far this season.
Therefore, I’m hoping for the acquisition of a veteran defenceman on an expiring contract: Kubina, Spacek, Beauchemin, Jackman, Liles, Gill, and Gleason all appeal to me to varying degrees. There will likely be a strong market for these guys, but hopefully we can acquire at least one of them for a reasonable price.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 20, 2012 2:55 PM EST reply actions
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