Silver Nuggets: Another busy week for the Senators
by Adnan on Jan 16, 2012 1:00 PM EST
in Silver Nuggets
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PrintSadly, I don't have time to write too much today so I am just going to preview the week. The Senators host the Winnipeg Jets tonight before starting a six game road trip in Toronto tomorrow. Ottawa will then head to California with a game in San Jose on Thursday and a Saturday afternoon game in Anaheim. The trip will continue into next week as well.
Opponent wise, it is certainly an easier schedule from last week. But going on the west coast is always a difficult adjustment. The Senators should be favoured to win at home tonight, but the Leafs are very strong at home and the Sharks are always a difficult test. Even the Ducks have gone on a 5-0-1 run.
What are your thoughts on this week?
Tonight's game
- Craig Anderson will make his ninth straight start and Brian Lee is a healthy scratch again. (Ian Mendes)
- The lines stay the same. 1) Greening-Spezza-Michaleck, 2) Condra-Turris-Alfie, 3) Neil-Smith-Foligno, 4) Daugavins-Konopka-Butler. (Nicolas St-Pierre)
- Zenon Konopka's sister, Cynthia, will sing the national anthem tonight. (Ian Mendes)
- Paul MacLean's comments in audio format about tonight's game. (Ottawa Senators)
General Sens News
- Craig Anderson was named the NHL's first star of the week. (Steve Lloyd)
- Paul MacLean would have Bruce Garrioch, Nick Foligno's and my vote for the Jack Adams Trophy. (Ottawa Sun)
- I don't know if I agree that Ottawa's win streak hasn't helped them make a significant jump in the standings. Sure they have played more games, but they've gone from being 1-2 points ahead with more games played to 7-8 points ahead and several teams behind them. The Sens now even have a six point gap on holding down the 6th seed. (Ottawa Citizen)
- The Senators recent run is getting national media attention. (Globe and Mail)
- Tomorrow's game against Toronto will be a meaningful game this late in the season between the two clubs for the first time in a while. (Toronto Sun)
- Whatever Erik Karlsson's alleged defensive deficiencies, how can he be only the 7th ranked defenceman in fantasy hockey? Granted, they don't consider past performance, just the expected future performance, but Brian Campbell is second and Karlsson is seventh? (ESPN)
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10 points
Because every Battle of Ontario is a 4 point game. 5 if you include the important point that we’ll be making with that win.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 2:21 PM EST reply actions
I would happily accept the Senators taking a dive against the Jets tonight if it means we can roll the Leafs tomorrow night.
San Jose will be another interesting test in terms of considering how good the Senators actually are. If they keep it close or even get points out of it, it will be another indicator that this team is, in fact, for real.
Travel and fatigue will weigh heavily on the team this week, I’d imagine. Hopefully they can still gut out some points. I don’t expect to go 4-0 that’s for sure. I’ll go with 5.
L – WPG
W – TOR
OTL – SJ
W- ANA
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Jan 16, 2012 2:21 PM EST reply actions
I voted for 5-6
I think we’ll win against Winnipeg and Anaheim, probably lose in San Jose, and get either 1 or 2 points in Toronto.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
i see this as the realistic view
and what i voted for. i figure an out-right loss against one of the Cali teams and losing whichever of the back-to-backs that Auld starts. Sorry Alex…
If Andy stays healthy and on a hot streak, I think MacLean will keep starting him
Back to back games or otherwise. If Andy gets banged up or puts out a stinker (win or lose), that will change things.
As little faith as i have in Auld right now
I would rather see him get a start while the team is rolling. If that can help him get over the confidence hump, win-win.
I know absolutely nothing about goalie conditioning but assuming we’re heading to the post-season, I really have to think Anderson needs to be rested for the odd game.
This is the week Alex Auld comes into his own.
Later, this period in Senators history will be happily remembered as the Good Auld Days.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Given who our goalies are....
I doubt it.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Dobber on Puck Daddy on Spezza
has a “Sell High” on Spezza due to his injury history, where he’s reliably missed 11 games/season. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/fantasy-hockey-top-25-scoring-lines-nhl-carlson-172911293.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Have to admit, I’ve been waiting for that shoe to drop. Any reason to believe that this year will be different for the Spezz-dispenser?
I don’t know, last year he only got injured because he was the recipient of a dirty hit from behind, otherwise he seemed fine.
Year before that sure he only played 60 games, but the two before that it was 82 and 76.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Crosby being out has limited the league’s tolerance for the Pens elbowing people to the head, hitting from behind, hitting with a sack of doorknobs, and the other open melee rules that seemed to apply before.
The league is a safer place now.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
the deceit of averages
Dobber stated an avg of 11 games missed ea. of the last 6 seasons; so, i take your point. Let’s hope the back, etc. though is good as gold.
To be completely honest, that’s one reason why I sold high on Michalek in my fantasy league.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
I wish I sold Crosby after the first game. Have him in 2 leagues.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
There's absolutely no reason to think that
Claiming that a player will miss games in the past is like claiming that it will snow in Texas again because it snowed in Texas before.
Past injuries and present ones are unrelated. To claim otherwise is convenient fiction disguised as some kind of logical extrapolation.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Well, I think it depends on the type of injuries.
I think Sidney Crosby is very risky for example even if he returns.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Yeah, I would agree
There are certainly some types of injuries that make repeat occurrences of those injuries likely. But I don’t believe Spezza has suffered any of those.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Did you just refute statistics as a science?
If it is has snowed in Texas it probably will again. And the more often the more likely.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think statistics is a perfectaly legitimate science
But it’s utterly useless in predicting the likelihood of injuries, and those who use it as a predictor of such are just trying to pass off simplified generalization as knowledge.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Not always true
If it’s continually re-injuring the same thing, then they’ve got a case. When it’s unconnected injuries you’re absolutely right that it does not make a good predictor.
Even then...
The number of missed games would be indicative of how a player reacts to injuries, not to mention how the team does (i.e. sit or play through it). Probably also of how they play (avoiding dangerous situations or not).
Also, some guys are just frail. Or old, and starting to miss a few games every year because of it.
Let’s put it this way, if you want to bet me that Tim Connolly plays more games than Chara next year, I’ll give you odds.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
That's not the same thing at all, though
We’re not talking about how a player reacts to injuries, we’re talking about a predictor of future injury. You can’t change the scope of the discussion mid-discussion.
Frailty is a myth, in my opinion.There are definitely factors that make players more susceptible to injury; age being one of them. Even so, susceptibility doesn’t have any impact on likelihood — Alfie didn’t suffer a concussion because he’s old; he suffered it because he got hit in the head. There are way, way too many factors that play into injuries in sports to go around making claims that Player X will miss games because he missed games in the past.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Disagree
All of his injuries and their causes were unrelated. Ankle surgery does not weaken the bones in the face.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
As a cause-and-effect, no
But they can both be effects, possibly of just a generally higher level of infirmity. Or of just really, really bad luck.
I don't know how you can demonstrate a higher level of infirmity, though
It seems like speculative extrapolation to me. I much prefer to look at it as bad luck, because that seems more logical.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Bad luck was getting hit in the face on the bench
Only a magic 8 ball could have saved him from that one.
Being frail was not playing through any of his niggling leg injuries.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see how you can reasonably say that without having firsthand knowledge of the severity of his injuries
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I can't. I was just being a dick to Pascal.
My points above were more rational.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
In general, with proper medical tests
More applicably to the topic at hand, you/I/Puck Daddy can’t.
Right
Like, if you put every player’s femur in a vice and bent it until it broke, you’d have a simple and undeniable database of who was more likely to suffer an injury.
They should add that to the combine.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
In my opinion it’s a mistake to equate the number of games missed with the severity of an injury.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
I would agree with that
Every player handles every injury differently. The best you can really do is say, “In general, people suffering this injury take an average of X days to recover.”
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Which means Alfie would be back in half that...
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not changing the discussion
I’m saying that there are a number of factors that contribute to the number of games a player misses due to injury, some of which are predictable.
Also, frailty isn’t a myth. Some guys have weak points anyways (bad knees, bad shoulders etc.). Some guys have numerous weak points. They’re frail.
Also, consider that the idea of a “frail” player in sports probably relates to the extent to which they’re willing and able to play hurt. No judgment, but some guys can do it and some can’t.
Note: My “lack of judgment” on that last point does not apply to Dominic Hasek, who I judge very harshly.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, I agree that guys have weak points, so I need to clarify
I meant frailty in the sense of the “injury prone” label, e.g. Pascal Leclaire.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Also, some people definitely do heal faster than others
Though it’s unlikely that we, as people who are not doctors working directly with the injured players, have the necessary information to determine the difference in healing speeds between players.
Yes, this is exactly what I'm saying
Concussions are a great example. We know that suffering one makes you more likely to suffer another. But in Spezza’s case, he hasn’t missed time with the same injury over and over. And the article doesn’t even touch on that. It simply states that Spezza has missed an average of 11 games a year and heavily implies that future injury is inevitable as a result. That’s nonsensical.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Scenario 1: If you flip a coin, the odds of it landing heads are .5.
Scenario 2: If you flip a coin twice, the odds of it landing heads both times is 0.25.
Scenario 3: If you flip a coin and it lands heads, then flip it again, the odds of it landing heads the second time is not 0.25. The odds of it landing heads the second time is .5.
Saying that because Spezza on average misses 11 games a season and hasn’t missed any yet, and therefore is more likely to be injured in the back half of the season is akin to scenario 3. Statistics is a science. Saying Spezza is due for those 11 games missed per season is not using that science particularly well.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 16, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Nope
But saying Spezza probably isn’t built to handle 82 games a season is a pretty good use of statistics.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Only if you make the same statement about every player who doesn't play 82 games a season
That, in my opinion, would be a good use of statistics—in arguing that the season is too long or something similar. But trying to use it for one player is just fiction that sounds believable.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
How long do we keep arguing until someone points out that we’re having two different arguments, and that we probably would both agree with each other’s point if we’d stop to look at that rather than continuing to argue?
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
No, not really
Disclaimer: I am a research analyst.
Okay
Research analyze me how a guy who has played a single 82 game season is likely to do so now.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying he will
I’m saying his history has no bearing on it.
you can't be serious!
if you injure an area, depending on the injury, there is just no guarantee that it will heal back to normal – especially if you are unable to rest an area completely due to your – say occupation!
Also, some people have flawed technique – i was a swimmer for years and a number of people suffered from tendonitis, bricitis (sp?) due to stroke technique – or so we were told. About 1/3 of the swimmers i knew suffered from tendonitis – including me, in both shoulders. I can assure you I did all the rehab/physio that was available short of cortisone shots. I was able to swim until i wanted to quit BUT these days, I still get the tell-tale pain if i hold my arms over my shoulders for very long.
History absolutely can have a significant bearing on injury. I hate to be strongly worded about it in such a nice bunch of fellow fans but to argue otherwise is a tad preposterous.
I don't think anyone's arguing that an injury to an area doesn't make it more susceptible to future injury
The points here are:
A) It doesn’t make other, unconnected areas more susceptible to injury
B) It doesn’t make it more or less likely that other injuries will occur.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Which seems to be why we're arguing
Since I don’t dispute either of those points.
I’m not arguing causation. I’m arguing indicia.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
again, i disagree on both fronts
most people i knew had injuries to both shoulders, not one. Also, a number also had knee issues. is there something with some people and the sensitivity of their joints – possibly. Also, some people compensate for injuries by straining other joints (knee-hip) which is not uncommon.
We’ve argued elsewhere here that Alfie heals quickly – it seems he does. It may be anecdotal but I wouldn’t be prepared to argue that genetically/physiologically some people aren’t better healers than others.
On your B) i guess i’m not understanding your point cause your heading seems to disagree with it.
At any rate, Spezza’s not about to win any NHL iron man awards, in my opinion but i DO hope he gets his full 82 games in so he can shake the idea that he’s perennially injured.
Swedish journalist is reporting Petersson called up for tomorrow
André Peterson is going to Ottawa Senators. Will fly in tuesday from Binghampton. #twittpuck #Sens
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
That's... interesting
I’m not aware of any forward injuries.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
They are going on a long road trip with no extra forwards. Hard to call one up on the road, so taking an extra I suppose. But I assume they will give him a game as well.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Twitter is saying we traded Alfie and a second rouner for Rundblad
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Sweet, I heard that kid is better than Karlsson!
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Jan 16, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's not funny.
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Jan 16, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously, you shouldn't joke about that stuff, man.
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Jan 16, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
It's okay
We don’t have any second round picks to trade.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
We're trading Spezza and Karlsson to get the second rounder
But we’re also getting some veteran players in the deal, so don’t worry.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
power rankings...
TSN had the Sens still ranked behind leafs last week. Let’s see if they learned anything this week.
Their rankings are entirely mathematical and stat-based
You can argue with the accuracy of the metric they use, but it’s hard to grumble about who is ranked ahead of who on a week-to-week basis.
by spez_dispenser on Jan 16, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
No, it's really easy to grumble about it
But you make yourself look like an ass clown, as I learned last week.
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
It's all mathmatics and cold logic
Hard to argue with their formula
Ranking = Points + (Goals for – goals against) + Being the Leafs / Penalty Minutes + Giveaways + Being the Sens
by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 16, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
but there have been two distinct periods to the Sens season so far
and it seems a little ‘incorrect’ to have the… I just caught your “Being the Leafs”/“Being the Sens” bit – tres droll… ;)
from the Globe and Mail article
"We’re certainly not going to sacrifice [prospects] to bring in a veteran player," Murray said.
so I’d assume this means that the only way a prospect will be traded is for another young talent (ie: Rundblad for Turris).
At the deadline, if Murray wants to make a trade for some help, he’ll probably use some combination of draft picks.
Coaching inexperience?
I’ve been wondering a bit lately if ths leaning on Anderson is the first real sign of head coaching inexperience on Paul MacLean’s part. He’s been great for us, and I have every reason to believe will continue to improve as a coach in the future. That said, the number of games Andy is playing is unreal, and I have to think a veteren coach would know better than to burn out a goalie with so much time left in the season, not to mention a very real chance of the playoffs, and maybe even advancing a round or two. I’m as nervous about Auld as the next two, but if Andy burns out in another 10 games, we can fall out of the playoff race as quickly as we vaulted in.
Didn't Anderson play a ridiculous number of games for Colorado during their 2010 playoff season?
71 games according to The Internetz. I think he should be able to handle the workload.
Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.
by Speedy_McEachern on Jan 16, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
That’s the only season he’s done it though and he is 30.
I love soft players (especially Europeans) that play on the perimeter. Enigmas are awesome. Grit and heart-and-soul are red flags.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
See, that's bullcrap
You’re trying to imply that Colorado lost that series because Anderson faltered out of fatigue. But the fact is that the first four games of that series were one-goal games. Game five saw the Avs get shut out 5-0, and the first two goals were a no-chance tip in and a power play goal. Neither were Anderson’s fault, and he got no support. Game six was 3-2 San Jose until the final minute when the Sharks scored two empty net goals.
Colorado didn’t lose that series because Anderson was tired, they lost it because they didn’t have to offense to keep up with the Sharks.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
okay - fair enough
i’m just saying that it’s hard to say how well he would have faired had their playoff run lasted longer (re. the fatigue). I wasn’t implying that he performed badly in the few games they played.
Okay, I didn't get that out of your comment
I definitely agree that fatigue is a concern, but I guess we’ll have to cross that bridge when we come to it.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
plus
i would rather know what we have in the 11-12 Auld before a playoff run (and before the trade deadline) than find out if Anderson got injured.
They didn't make the playoffs last year. Not even close.
2 years ago they faced the Sharks and came surprisingly close to upsetting them. Andy was the only reason for that. Howard played more games in a row for Detroit than Andy has for the Sens. He’ll need some breaks before the playoffs but I’d say we’re nowhere near the point of concern yet.
by Pmoron on Jan 16, 2012 6:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I definitely think it's worth watching
But at the same time, we have to trust that MacLean and his staff, and Anderson himself, are monitoring his status. MacLean seems to feel that Anderson can handle the workload, and there have been other goalies who have handled similar workloads in the past, so it’s not out of the realm of plausibility.
Doesn’t mean we have to like it. I know I don’t.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Awful article disparaging Ottawa
http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/a2y/comments/note_to_ken_warren_its_time_to_stfu_flowbee/
I understand the central point (Ken Warren shouldn’t criticize Lidstrom and Selanne for wanting to quietly sit out of All-Star Game) and agree with it entirely, but the way in which the point is made is just ridiculous. Turns into a childish “Red Wings are the greatest franchise ever and the Senators are a garbage franchise” rant even though that has nothing to do with Warren’s argument. At all.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
That IS an awful article
Ken Warren should let Nicklas Lidstrom have sex with his wife if Lidstrom wants to?
Wow.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
huh. so that what blind rage reads like.
what an idiotic piece. love his argument about changing timezones. I can travel to Maine and change a timezone in 1 hr. I would take me a full day of driving to get to Sydney, NS and still be in AST.
And no comment about how the Red Wings have feasted on a crap division for a better part of the 2000’s.
Clearly, Mr. VooX has a stupendous head of hair – obviously a side benefit of having your scalp fertilized by a head full of manure.
Yeah, I totally disagree with the article.
Lidstrom doesn’t owe the NHL the All-Star Game. He’s playing to win a Cup for the franchise. He’s 42, his numbers are down and he clearly feels that a break is better for him. It’s a ridiculous piece of wet garbage, in my opinion.
by Pmoron on Jan 16, 2012 6:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed – but it doesn’t justify attacking a poor argument by writing an even worse one, which is what the author of the A2Y article did.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Oohh... my bad.
I didn’t catch that the link was to a different article. Yeah, that second one was much worse.
by Pmoron on Jan 16, 2012 6:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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