On the speed of our Rebuild

by spez_dispenser on Jan 13, 2012 12:21 PM EST

Okay, so looking at this year, it's pretty easy to say we're doing well. The team is sitting in fifth (though every other team near us in the standings has about 30 games in hand, thank you schedule makers), and the players on all lines are thriving in the current environment. It's beginning to look like BM wasn't just trying to cover his butt last year when he was saying that the energy of younger players is what will make us competitive in the future.

So far, it would be easy to say our rebuild is almost finished. Give guys like ZBad, Stone, Borocop, Weircioch and Silvferberg a year or two to grow into NHL players, and we're only going to improve on where we are now? And if where we are now is a solid, middle of the playoff pack team, then the improvement would mean we're genuine contenders, right?

But not so fast. One thing needs to be factored into every discussion of a completed rebuild. It's the thing I hate to say more than anything in the world.

Daniel Alfredsson is almost done. Sure, he may come back next year, maybe even some more after that, but lets be honest here. The shelflife on our beloved Alfie ain't what it used to be.

And where would we be this year without Alfie? In the past few weeks he's gotten 2 OT goals, which automatically would have us two points lower. How many more important goals/assists of his this year would have cost us points in the standings without them? How many more points in the standings would we have dropped without his veteren leadership? How many times does Alfie trigger those come from behind wins that all us Silver Seveners love to talk about?

I don't think it's unfair to say that without Alfie, we'd be at least 10 points back of where we are now. Where does that put us? 44 points. Tenth in the east. A game below .500. 3 points up on Buffalo, giving Buffalo 3 games in hand. A point back of Winnepeg, giving Winny 2 games in hand.

Something to think about when Brian Murray starts talking about adding another piece at the deadline. Sure, we're pressing strong right now, but we're not ready for Alfie's retirement, and if we abandon the rebuild for a playoff run that is not particularly likely to get us the cup, the pain of the day Alfie hangs up his pads is going to hurt even harder than it needs to.

Either way, though, it's going to hurt a lot.

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I do think it's unfair to say that we'd be 10 points back without Alfie, unless he's contributed to 5 GWGs.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Jan 13, 2012 1:17 PM EST reply actions

It does assume that someone else wouldn't be stepping up

Which is a bit of a discredit to the other studs/leaders, especially Spezza.

by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 13, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Honestly didn't think that Daniel Alfredsson being worth 5 wins would be this controversial

But I suppose you’re right that it is assuming alot. I would say that a GWG is not necessarily always the difference maker. I’d say the guy who works his butt off and draws a penalty, or makes a clear momentum shift, at the right time is more responsible for a win than a GWG in a 4-1 game, for random examples.

Does Alfie have 5 GWGs, no. Without going back and reading the recap of every game, or OT loss where Alfie may have led the way to getting as far as OT, I certainly can’t back up my 10-point estimate. As his Hero vs. Zero Count of 12 the other day might indicate, Alfie has frequently been a key factor in our success, but I suppose others were also heroes in those 12 games.

I also don’t think we can quantify the difference his leadership makes. The players-only meeting after our early slump comes to mind. Though I am making a leap that it was the Captain’s leadership over that of the rest of the veteren presence in that room that made the difference.

So, yes, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe this team without Alfie is only 2 points back (both his GWGs were in OT). Maybe not even that far, as we might have won both of those games in the shootout without him. It’s all just guesswork on either side of the equation, really. But I do firmly believe that if you took Alfie off this team, we would not feel nearly as complete in our rebuild just yet. Alfie is, in my opinion, the heart and soul of this team, and his eventual retirement will, again in my opinion, hurt us in ways that aren’t measured in stats.

by spez_dispenser on Jan 13, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Well, I'm not trying to be controversial

I also know that Alfie doesn’t have 5 GWGs, which is why I said “contributed to”… I’d consider an assist on a GWG to be as good as two points in the standings as well.

It’s definitely worth noting that while Alfie was out, the team went 2-3-1, so there’s no real debate on whether he brings things besides goals to the team, as far as I’m concerned.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Jan 13, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

I would disagree.

Don’t get me wrong, Alfie is the heart and soul of the franchise, but someone who take those minutes. Sure, we would need someone to step up (Butler, Zibanejad, Silferberg, Filatov, some free agent), but I don’t think we’d be as bad as you think.

But I do agree that it’ll hurt when the Captain hangs them up.

by The Tif on Jan 13, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions

I believe it's incorrect to equate a trade for a playoff run as abandoning the rebuild.

We have been hearing this a lot since Murray’s declaration a couple of days ago. Where is the proof that a trade will set our rebuild back? Why can’t a trade that may help us in the playoff run help in the rebuild as well?

by whatsinaname on Jan 13, 2012 4:23 PM EST reply actions

Previous Trades

I think previous Murray deadline deals (not counting last year) has us on edge a little bit!

by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 13, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

Previous deals were based on previous situations that no longer stand.

We are in a different place now. If you want to use past examples, we should use one more relevant to our current state of mind, case in point, the Turris trade.

by whatsinaname on Jan 13, 2012 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Plus, in previous trades, we were not in the rebuild mode that we are in now.

by whatsinaname on Jan 13, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I’m with you. I think Murray has it under control. I also think past experience always puts people on edge, whether or not the situation is different.

by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 13, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions

I still miss Hossa as well. For some reason, Mika reminds me of Hossa.

by whatsinaname on Jan 13, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

Kinda huh?!?!

Size, speed, skill, responsible defensively. I’d be happy if he becomes that type of player!

by I Still Miss Hossa!!! on Jan 14, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed that the loss of Alfie will hurt

Losing Alfredsson will really expose the lack of “skill” on this team. The team is doing great with all of these second tier guys, but contending teams always need skilled players. Alfredsson will have to be replaced (skill-wise) when he retires.

But this is not that day! I don’t think Alfie’s potential retirement is a good reason to forgo adding a player. I’d welcome a trade where we get a player and secure a playoff spot, as long as we don’t give up a top prospect. If we don’t make the playoffs this year with Alfie, what are these young players going to think of our chances next year WITHOUT him? And I certainly don’t want to go the next 2 years without the playoffs.

On a separate note, if this is Daniel Alfredsson’s last year, how should he go out? Missing the playoffs? Or taking a competitive cinderella team back to the playoffs?

by Sports Fan! on Jan 13, 2012 7:32 PM EST reply actions

The sens should wait untill the season is done to get zack parise so that he could be a replacement for alfredsson if he retire next year

by pattelite on Jan 15, 2012 3:16 PM EST reply actions

I've seen enough.

it’s time to get the flags out, this team is for real. It may be too early to talk about a Cup but right now i think the Sens can compete with ANY team in the east. I know we want to keep expectations low, but i don’t think we should limit what this team can do, just for the sake of it. Also, if there is an edition to the team that makes sense i’m all for it, I want Alfie to win a cup more than i want multiple cups. I think we may be a winger away to being rediculous. Homer yes, but i’ve watched the Sens beat pretty much everyone and i feel like once we get into the big tournament we have as good of a chance as ANYONE. F ’em all< lets do this shit.

Go luck yourself.

by ottawachiefsfan on Jan 19, 2012 12:51 PM EST reply actions