Maybe the Senators should start winning in regulation

by DarrenM on Jan 11, 2012 7:00 AM EST in Analysis

If you've noticed that a lot of Ottawa Senators games have been running long this season, there's a good reason for that: the Senators currently lead the league in overtime appearances with 13. In that time, they've actually compiled a very respectable overtime/shootout record, with 8 wins and 5 losses in extra time (including a 4-2 record in the shoot out).

Fans should be happy that the Senators are pushing games to OT at all, given that they are often trailing in the game before pushing it to extra time: as of January 5th, the Senators had led after the first period just 9 times this season. They had trailed after the first period 18 times. Fans should probably also be content with the Senators' rather impressive record in extra time -- they're third in OT wins, just after New Jersey and Colorado who have ridiculous 10-2 and 10-1 records, respectively.

Yet every time the Senators allow a game to go into overtime, they're giving up ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Of the Senators 8 overtime wins, 6 have been against Eastern Conference teams. This shouldn't be surprising -- teams play more games against their own conference, so they're bound to have more overtime games against their conference. But the problem lies with the extra point given to overtime losses -- when Ottawa waits until OT to put a team away, that team continues to climb in the standings along with Ottawa.

Ottawa's overtime wins within their conference have been against NJ, BUF (2), FLA, NYR, and CAR. At the time of writing, the Devils sit one point behind the Senators in the standings with a game in hand. The Sabres sit five points behind the Senators with a game in hand. The Panthers are two points ahead with a game in hand. Carolina is... heh, never mind.

If this trend continues for the rest of the season, other Eastern Conference teams will have gained 12 points simply by losing to the Senators in extra time -- and this isn't including the points lost by the Senators losing in shootouts or in overtime.

At the end of the 2010-2011 season, the difference between the 8th place team and the 9th place team in either conference was 2 points. In 2009-10, the difference in the Eastern Conference was a single point. In 2008-09? No points separated the 8th and 9th place Eastern Conference teams. 2007-08 saw 2 points separate 8th and 9th place in the East. Clearly, every point counts in the playoff race.

So what should the Senators do about this? Aside from the obvious (win earlier, damn it!), there's not much they can do. If the Sens could win in regulation, they certainly would. Unfortunately, they're a team that trails first more frequently than they score first, and in all honesty, have relied on a lot of luck to sit in a playoff spot right now. Still, if the Senators end up missing out on a playoff spot by one point to the Buffalo Sabres, those extra overtime points will certainly sting.

(Ed. note: this article was written last week and was accidentally published before being updated, and therefore, all stats and standings reflect how they were on January 5th. Sorry for the confusion)

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I think a big part is their start, but also the inordinately high number of shots allowed.

If Ottawa can start protecting the front of the net better, keep guys to the outside, and therefore the shots to the perimeter, they’ll allow fewer goals, keeping the games from going to overtime.

Obviously this is much easier said than done, but it would certainly help. Also coming out of the gate, ready to play such as they did last night, as opposed to weathering the storm through the first period would also help them significantly.

Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.

by havey03 on Jan 11, 2012 8:32 AM EST reply actions

During the game last night, the graphics used at one point to contrast this season to date against last year shows that our shots against and goals agaisnt are higher htis year than last year; marginally, but higher. Intuitively, that doesn’t seem rightm because we are winning (scoring tons more goals to manage it) but also because it doesn’t feel like a clusterf@*k in our own end all of the time.

It feels more like we get lots of risk outcomes due to pinching d-men, but higher offence as a result. If you factor in the deliberate risk behaviour, that explains why the shot totals are at or above last year when we had not discernible breakout strategy or execution.

But as I believe you have observed in anothe string, there is also a pattern of parts of games being a bit of a scramble in our end, with marginal ability to box out opponents or manage the area in front of our net. The Philly OT winner was a Phillips giveaway combined with Phillips ignoring his net responsibilities. And last night’s goal was a lame and weak breakout attempt; another frustrating, periodically reoccurring brain cramp committed too frequently.

The good news, I suppose, is that most of this is still coachable and reverseable. One question, though: are we – fans – tolerant enough of the risk taking to forgive the breakaways?

by Be_rad on Jan 11, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions

3 point games in the conference

obviously aren’t ideal.

However, given that vs the NYR, NJD, Buf, TB and Philly, we were trailing in the 3rd, with the prospect of zero points, I don’t really mind.

The Carolina game (where the Sens blew a 2-0 lead) is different, but Carolina is probably not as big a threat as the others.

There is also the aspect that, for tiebreaking purposes, regular or OT wins count differently than shootout wins, and deservedly so (deciding a game with players vs. players vs. the hockey equivalent of HORSE). At least a share of the Sens OT wins have come before the SO, at least so far.

"If you aren't diving, you aren't trying"-Jordin Tootoo
PekKarlsson: The genetic mutant solution to all of Nashville and Ottawa's problems. Shea and Alfie approve.

by PekKarlsson on Jan 11, 2012 8:48 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, if it comes to the tiebreaker

The Devils have more to worry about than the Sens.

The Marginal Virtues

by JonathanA on Jan 11, 2012 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

I agree that the Sens should win more games in regulation than in extra time

I’m getting the impression that this should be a matter of concern, and so far as it goes, that’s true.

Certainly the Senators need to win more games either in regulation or the 5-min. overtime period rather than win in the shoot-out, if they can, because of the tiebreaker, but as I commented above, the team which is going to have the biggest problem in that regard is the Devils.

Also, the standings have changed somewhat since you’ve posted (and, I would guess, written) this, I notice, Darren. You wrote:

The Sabres sit five points behind the Senators with a game in hand.

Well, the Sabres now have two games in hand, but they are also eleven points back.

Indeed, at this point, it’s hard to complain about the Sens’ chances, given the teams they have beaten in extra time: they won’t pass the Panthers or Rangers anyway, unless they gain the division lead; the ’Canes are

… heh, never mind.

And the Devils, at this point, would lose the tiebreaker to the Sens if it came down to determining which team has more games won, excluding victories from the shoot-out.

For all that, I agree with your main point.

The Marginal Virtues

by JonathanA on Jan 11, 2012 9:48 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, there are probably a number of errors with the stats

I did this up on January 5th, and had to keep delaying th epost. I meant to update it yesterday, but completely forgot.

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Jan 11, 2012 9:56 AM EST up reply actions

On a side note

In trying to figure out how the hell we’re only 3 points behind Boston for the division right now, I came across an answer that was another question:

How the hell does Boston have 5 games in hand on us? That’s absurd.

by B_T on Jan 11, 2012 10:04 AM EST reply actions

Maybe that's a good thing as they will have to play a lot of games in a short period to catch up

while our games will be more spread out in Feb and March. But really, it goes not matter so long as we win our games.

by whatsinaname on Jan 11, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Good preparation

The Senators are obviously preparing to win playoff games in overtime. I am not sure why everyone doesn’t see that? ;)

by DW19 on Jan 11, 2012 11:54 AM EST reply actions

Yet more brilliant coaching from The Paulrus.

Bring on the Adams!

Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.

by Speedy_McEachern on Jan 11, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

I Love Sens in 3 Point Games

Why wouldn’t you love it when the Sens are in 3 point games. Don’t focus on the other teams, focus on the Sens and how many fewer points they would have if they don’t get those guaranteed points for OT and a chance at the 2nd point. Plus winning in overtime is not giving up ground to the opposition, it’s only gaining ground by 1 point, which is much better than losing ground by 2 if they lose in regulation.

by NdeJonge on Jan 11, 2012 12:02 PM EST reply actions

I’m not saying winning games in OT is worse than losing in regulation or anything. But allowing a team to even get a single point out of a game makes your playoff push a lot more difficult. Two OT losses = a win in terms of points.

The Senators have certainly benefited hugely from getting OT points and from winning games in extra time — there’s no doubt about it. I point that out in the article. All I’m saying is that they are also giving out a bunch of extra points within the conference.

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Jan 11, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions

Dont Care

This team is turning heads- you cant deny they have chemistry- MacLean appears to be hockeys version of Phil Jackson (Zen Master)- the team is playing with confidence- the boys all stick up for each other- I’ll take 1 point over zero points any day- If we were talking about all these OT games back in September, Sens nation would be thrilled – I think we’re getting a little nit picky
again, how can you not look at the Turris trade as the catalyst for the Sens looking like a very solid club right now? Honestly dont look at any team now, as a team they cant beat- and weve only scratched the surface
Murray doesnt get enough credit

by SensSational19 on Jan 11, 2012 12:22 PM EST reply actions

Who needs another antique forward?

Apparently BM was responding to a question on ESPN saying that he may want to add a forward at the deadline.

BM is doing fine so far tis year… as long as he doesn’t do something stupid like give up some prospects for an old forward with an expiring contract. How did that turn out the last time, and the time before that? Not well!!!

The offfence is fine. Just leave it alone. We are scoring at least four goals a game. Who needs another old forward?

by Marvellous on Jan 11, 2012 12:45 PM EST reply actions

I think the key is never say never till you know who you are getting

and what you are giving up. Case in point is the Turris trade.

by whatsinaname on Jan 11, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

The headline of this article should be changed to "Looking a Gifthorse in the Mouth"

Though I see where you’re coming from.

However, given the circumstances, I’m just happy that we are winning. I don’t really feel like we’re bleeding uneccessary points as much as picking up unreasonable ones.

by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 11, 2012 12:58 PM EST reply actions

I’m absolutely happy they are winning as well, and they are completely overachieving.

I think the title suggests that I’m dissatisfied with the Senators, but that’s not the case. I just wanted to point out that they are bleeding out a lot of extra points within the conference.

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Jan 11, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

I hear you, and that was my understanding of the article as well

I just don’t us to be greedy.

by RogerTheShrubber on Jan 11, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Hahaha, why not be greedy?

164 POINT SEASON NEXT YEAR

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Jan 11, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

I hate sharing with my enemies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8y6DJAeolo

by whatsinaname on Jan 11, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

Winning's great

Yeah, winning is great, and why screw around with something that is working. It’s one thing to talk about Bobby Ryan or Parise or Nash. Talk is cheap and the asking price will be too much anyways, so it’s just alot of blablabla….

But please stay away from antiques like Vinny Prospal or Tuomo Ruutu.

We rolled the dice with Turris and that might turn out OK because Turris is so young. But man, I just hate when we piss away assets for a couple of months of rental. A 2nd or 3rd round dman selected in the draft this year could easily turn into a very good player in a few years.

by Marvellous on Jan 11, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions