Where will the goals come from this season?

I think it was last week that I was listening tio Team 1200 and they were giving overly generous estimates on how many goals each one of the players would score… and they reached around 210. This is with several players having career years and no injuries.

I figure we are good for around 180 goals, so we’ll have to be winning the Vezina to be in the playoff hunt in the spring.

So realistically it’s a year to enjoy the development of our young players as we build for the future, adding another top pick in next years draft.

Butler I could see reaching the 23 goals in a season and I could see Filatov surpassing the 11. However, those ‘coulds’ are relying on consistent 82-game play with their linemates also being healthy. However, I do not at this point see Greening achieving 21 or Condra reaching 19. Not this year.

Where we will see an increase in offense, I believe, is from the back end. I fully expect Gonchar and Kuba will improve over last season. Karlsson will be about the same (hopefully his plus minus improves, though, otherwise he could really hurt my pool) and adding Rundblad into the mix, it will be a slow start for him but I see him being solid by seasons end, should improve production from the back end.

However, this still will not be enough to push the total north of 200. Even if Anderson and Auld play lights out goaltending for 82 games, which I see as being unrealistic, the anemic offense will place the team too low in the standings for a playoff seeding.

When I look at the East, I can honestly conclude that this team will finish between 12-15, but this does not upset me because it will provide invaluable experience for the youngsters and I can see in a couple years the team being in the thick of the playoffs again.

With so many players having down years, it will be easy to beat that.

Just like when a bunch of players have career years, one says “can’t repeat that again”, I think the same has to be said when everyone craps out.

I think we will definitely see improved goal totals from Spezza, Regin, Butler, Gonchar, Filatov and maybe even Alfie.

Just for the fact that having more stability in nets crosses fingers will really flourish both our forwards and D. You’re also replacing Kovalev, Fisher and Kelly (sobs) with young guys like Greening, Butler and Da Costa who now have more ice time and more experience to score more goals. I stil have high hopes Michalek, Regin and Foligno can somehow find some magic under the new coach. Assuming Spezza has a healthier season his goal totals should not even be close to that of last year. Add to that a more “grown up” Karlsson and possible Rundbland and we got us some extra goodies from the back end.

It won’t be an easy season but there are a lot of things that can go right for us to at least make it one hell of a fun season to watch

No comments on my reference to the Mobil, Alabama leprechaun video? Maybe it’s too dated of an internet meme.

I picked “Yes”, but I wouldn’t bet big money on it. I think the offense will be better this year, but that is based more on wishful thinking than deep analysis. Here are a few additional factors that I haven’t seen other people mention, yet:

1) Coaching change – this is the biggest change could affect the clubs scoring. Clouston’s system emphasized hard forechecking, but it was a strangely defensive forecheck that didn’t generate a lot of offense (kind of a philosophy of keeping the puck in the other team’s end to prevent them from from scoring, rather than for the sake of scoring yourself).

2) Health – this could go either way, but it’s probably safe to add another 10-20 goals to last year’s totals if Spezza and Alfredsson played 75 games each(obviously assuming they were near 100% in those games).

3) Offense from the blueline – Gonchar had a sub-par season offensively and Karlsson is likely to continue improving. Rundblad is likely to add a bit of extra offense later in the year if he gets into games ahead of Lee or Carkner. You could even through Kuba in here as he usually generates a little more offense than he did last season.

4) Improved power play – Last year’s power play wasn’t so bad statistically, but it didn’t seem as effective as it should have been given the personnel (Alfie, Spezza, Gonchar, Karlsson). This year with a new coach and system that may improve.

5) Steady goalkeeping – When you trust the goalie it is a lot easier to generate offense because you can be a tiny bit less conservative. If you are always worried about making a mistake because you don’t feel like your goalie and/or defense can bail you out then you make a more tentative and conservative plays. Assuming Anderson’s performance is fairly close to what he did last year then we should see a less tentative team on offense.

CORY CLOUSTON IS A SNIPER