Can Nikita Filatov become the next low-risk, high-reward success story?
by DaveYoung on Sep 12, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintOn draft day 2011, Bryan Murray worked all kinds of magic at the draft table. In addition to picking three strong prospects in the first round (Mika Zibanejad, Stefan Noesen and Matt Puempel), Murray grabbed another high end talent...with his third-round pick.
By grabbing Nikita Filatov from The Columbus Blue Jackets, Bryan Murray set up an ideal situation for himself. Either Nikita lives up to his 6th overall selection potential and becomes an absolute steal, or he plays even moderately better than most third round picks, and the trade is still a win.
Now, this sort of thing isn't common in the NHL, but it happens from time to time. A team will give up on a first round talent for one reason or another, and will let them go, only for another team to swoop in and pick them up for next to nothing. As you will see in a moment, some of these are huge success stories, while with others, the verdict is still out.
Obviously, Michael Grabner makes this list as a huge success story for the New York Islanders. Originally drafted 14th overall by the Vancouver Canucks in 2006, he bounced between the AHL and NHL before being traded with Steve Bernier and a first round pick to the Florida Panthers for Keith Ballard and Victor Oreskovich. However, failing to make the Panthers out of training camp (SERIOUSLY), he was placed on waivers so he could head to the AHL. The Islanders swooped in and grabbed him (no pun intended). The rest of course is history. Grabner was a man possessed last season after being picked up, and would have won the Calder if not for impressive seasons from Jeff Skinner and Logan Couture. This is probably the high end of what we could expect from Filatov, with most people agreeing he will score far fewer than 34 times. However, nobody predicted Grabner would do it when he was plucked off waivers!
Gilbert Brule makes this list to balance out the huge success represented by Michael Grabner and others. This former WHL playoff MVP was drafted 6th overall in 2005 by the Columbus Blue Jackets. (Side note: they are terrible with developing players, aren't they?). He made their team out of training camp in his first pro camp, but after a couple injuries was returned to junior. After a decent rookie season, in which he got mostly fourth line minutes, Brule had a terrible second season, and was sent to the AHL. That summer, he was traded for Raffi Torres (at the time a salary dump) to the Edmonton Oilers. Since joining the Oilers, he had one good season: 2009-2010, in which he scored 17 goals and added 20 assists. The following year, he had trouble once again with injuries, and never got to a level where he was effective. Here's hoping we get better than this out of Nikita, however 37 points wouldn't be so bad!
Brian Boyle may not have the hype that someone like Filatov has, but he was still taken as the 26th overall pick in 2003 by the Los Angeles Kings. After going the College route, Boyle bounced around between the NHL and AHL in the Kings organization, never really finding a place in their lineup. After once again spending the majority of the season in the AHL in 2008-2009, he was traded to the Rangers at the draft in 2009 for a third round pick (sound familiar?). After a season where he didn't do much in the way of offence in 2009-2010, Boyle exploded for 21 goals in 2010-2011, playing primarily with the offensive talents of Brandon Prust. A late bloomer, Boyle looks like a steal for a third rounder.
A little bit of a different animal here, in that Kari Lehtonen is obviously a goaltender, but for the purposes of this article, he is a perfect example of low-risk, high-reward. The highest drafted Finnish born player EVER, Kari Lehtonen was taken as the 2nd overall pick in 2002 by the Atlanta Thrashers. After years and years of untapped potential mixed with injury upon injury, the Thrashers decided enough was enough and traded Lehtonen to the Stars for Ivan Vishnevskiy and a 4th rounder. Vishnevskiy himself is a decent prospect, having been picked 27th overall in 2006, but even still, that's a 27th overall pick and a 4th rounder for a 2nd overall pick. Not to mention Vishnevskiy is currently playing in the KHL. Essentially, Atlanta wanted to be rid of Kari. So Dallas, a team that was without a starting goaltender with the aging Marty Turco on the way out, took a flyer on Lehtonen and it paid off. Lehtonen set career highs in games played and save percentage, while tying a career high in wins. Essentially, he became the starting goalie that he was drafted to be. A solid starting goalie.
That's all that I think I want from Filatov, is for him to become the offensive player he was drafted to be. He doesn't need to be a 50 goal scorer, but just a good, strong offensive threat when he is on the ice. I think 20 goals would make him a steal.
What would you consider a success? A steal? Which story above do you think parallels best with Nikita?
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I think staying in the NHL would make it worth while
20 goals would make it an absolute steal. In fact, you could say even if we get 20-30 games out of him, that is more that a 3rd rounder, so already worth it in that sense.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Sep 12, 2011 7:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Depends…Filatov has one more year on his contract, at which point his team will be competing with the KHL to sign him and may have to overpay to keep him. If you already need to shelter him, give him preferential ice time, and then overpay on top of that, even if he scores 20-30 goals in a year when the team will probably stink, what good does it do? It’s still worth the risk, I think, and it’s certainly more entertaining, but I can understand Columbus wanting to increase their chances at an NHL player with an additional pick (and high 3rd rounder too).
I really think how his season goes will set the limit for how much I'm willing to pay for him
I’d hate to get into a bidding war with the KHL for a 20-goal guy. If they want to overpay, let them.
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by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I see your point. We almost want him to have a decent first year here to justify re-signing him. Then a breakout next season when it’s too late to demand more money. He does seem to want to make it in the NHL rather than the KHL (he could have just stayed there), so hopefully they won’t be too much of a problem.
by Sports Fan! on Sep 12, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Tread lightly
With a player with previous attitude problems, we need to tread very lightly, not just jump all over him with a big contract at the first sign of success. Let Filatov go through a slump and play on the fourth line for a while and see if he wants to leave or he becomes a disruptive force like before.
He’s played a grand total of 44 NHL games and has scored 13 points so far. Butler has played six less games and has outperformed him by a country mile.
And yeah, the guy can skate. But so can lots of our prospects. So let’s play some “Show me” for two years before we start “competing with the KHL”. If he wants to go back there, have a nice flight. At least he can be sure that the airplane from Ottawa will land properly in Russia.
Maybe that was a cruel comment, but it pisses me off that they have the money to lure our NHL players away but they don’t have any money to ensure the safety of their players.
What is is this attitude problem that you speak of?
From his interviews that I have seen, he has handled himself very well and has a great attitude.
And your plane comment was just awful.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
i thought the knock on him was related to attitude, however, i agree that he ‘seems’ to have turned the corner on that one but proof will be how his season plays out and how McClean and co. handle him.
I don't think it's attitude
I think a player will respond in kind if treated fairly, and will be upset if treated unfairly. It’s the same in any other job, why should it be any different in the NHL?
Nikita Filatov is barely 21 years old. Let’s keep this age in mind; he’s not just developing as a hockey player, he’s developing as a human being.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 12, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think how he handles his first taste of adversity here will tell the tale
We know guys like Don Brennan are anxious to compare him to Alex Kovalev, and I doubt he experienced anything like that in Columbus. If he bristles easily or cuts and runs again, then you have to start to think attitude is at least part of the reason for his lack of success so far.
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"Let Filatov go through a slump and play on the fourth line for a while"?
I hope not. That is pretty much how he was treated in Columbus. What’s more, it actually hurts our fourth line to have a highly-skilled player not adept at dumping, chasing, and playing strong along the boards. The fourth line shouldn’t be purgatory for the top line guys- it both hurts and diminishes that role.
Indeed, you note Bobby Butler having more points in less games. He wouldn’t have as many of those points had he been relegated to fourth line dump-and-chase duty. Not to mention that Butler is three years older.
It is a cruel comment
Cruel, disrespectful, disappointing, distasteful, and uncalled for.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 12, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to agree with Adnan
Filatov hasn’t shown anything remotely resembling an attitude problem in Ottawa. He cut his vacation short to join the team for offseason practice.
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If he becomes a regular NHLer...
…then Ottawa’s won this trade by a massive margin.
I Agree with mister GuineaPig here. If he goes on to become a regular First or Second line forward, then that trade was a steal. I gotta say, I feel great about our future guys. I think that a 2 year senate reform is possible. 2012-2013 playoff spot? Our chances are pretty good!
I think 2012-13 is asking too much
But I think 2013-14 is realistic.
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by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
agree
we’ll have too many sophmore’s to avoid an important slump or two.
Mind you, it will also depend on what Murray does with the room left with Kuba and Gonchar’s contracts (not to mention probable Alfie retirement). Good grief – we’ll have the cap room to give Karlsson and Lehner whatever they want and send enough offer sheets around to give Burke a coronary.
Real issue over the next couple of yrs, imo, is whether the coaching can pull together a young and fluxuating line-up into a night-by-night threat.
lots of prospects coming down the pipe
Management will have to be judicious with guys coming off rookie contracts. You don’t want to get in a situation like the Blackhawks where they had to trade good players because they couldn’t afford to re-sign them. On the flip side, if you have good guys coming up behind someone then that diminishes their bargaining power and increases the chances of signing them for a reasonable price.
Cap management will be key in the coming few years as Murray(and/or his successor) puts a contending team back together.
I voted for staying in NHL, but need to add a modifier
He has to stay in Ottawa.
If demoted or heads back to KHL, the trade is a fail.
I reserve the right to change my opinion. After all, it belongs to me.
Even if he heads to the KHL, he’s an RFA, so whenever he decides to come back, we hold his rights so should get something for him.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Unless he doesn't come back until he's 27
Then he’d just be a UFA
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by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
True
Also, how about them Bills!
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
AFC EAST CHAMPS
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by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Go early
Tailgating at the Ralph is awesome.
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After 5 years in the KHL?
If he likes the KHL enough to stay for 5 years then why would he ever bother coming back to the NHL? At that point RFA/UFA is rather a moot point.
Ha, I know
But maybe he wants to stir up some rumors like Yashin or something. I’m just saying.
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I think if he can score 20-30 goals I'd be happy.
We’ve got some talent in the cupboards too – if he leaves, I’m hoping that Noeson/Puempel or even Winchester and our other guys can step up and challenge for that spot. I’m not sure about after this year – a lot will come down to the size of the contract and how he plays into Macleans system.
20+ goals would be amazing, but
I ’ll be happy with 15 which I think is a realistic expectation. I mean, yes he has a lot of potential but the guy only had 44 NHL games under his belt with 6 goals. Even 10 goals will be decent for a 3rd rounder.
for him to become the offensive player he was drafted to be?
At 6th overall, i would guess one’s expectations should ultimately be well north of 20 goals then; although I like the idea that he is serviceable in his 1st yr with regular NHL ice-time, negotiate reasonable contract (although i would image it will be short-term w/ new CBA, etc.) and then see him turn into a real top-10 pick offensive juggernaut.
It’s interesting that the other guys above are on average a fair bit older and unlike some of the others, his ‘disfavour’ is not about an inability to stay healthy. As long as his early comments after being picked up by BMurr are sincere, I think there’s a good chance he emerges into top-6 guy.
But what constitutes a top 10 offensive juggernaut? Sam Gagne? Derrick Brassard? Gilbert Brule? Those were the 3 guys that were drafted in the 6 hole the 3 drafts before Filatov.
If we got the production Gagne has put up that would be great, but would you be happy with that production? I think expectations of first round picks is always over inflated. For any draft pick it’s a win if they can be a serviceable NHL player. If they happen to be above average or elite then that’s a win for your franchise.
by modsuperstar on Sep 12, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a really interesting question
And, honestly, the big question of any draft. The expectation with taking someone 6th overall, is that he will somehow outperform the remaining players drafted. Given the intricacies and intangibilities of player development, this is almost always an unreasonable expectation—but it still remains.
In Filatov’s case, I think he gets some leeway—after all, Ottawa didn’t draft him 6th overall, so it’s unfair for us to expect him to perform well because Columbus’ scouting staff thought he would. Murray and staff valued him as a third rounder, and I think that’s where he needs to be evaluated by Sens fans. Otherwise he’s just another in a long line of Ottawa players with an unfair burden dropped on him from the start.
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i guess i set myself up with that one
especially since 2/3 that modsuperstar mentions were also CBJ picks. What is it with them and no. 6 picks?!
That just shows you the kind of rut CBJ is in, where they are never the worst, but can’t make the jump out of that 6 spot. Obviously that was a few years ago, but it definitely exemplifies their problems.
by modsuperstar on Sep 12, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if I'd call it a rut
I mean, it’s not like there’s not great talent available at number six, right?
But as we know, a high pick doesn’t guarantee a great player. So much of how a player turns out depends on what happens after the draft. I’m always amazed when teams take players that don’t seem to be a fit for the style they play and then label those players busts, which is what I think happened with Filatov.
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3rd round production
Ottawa gave up a 3rd round pick to get Filatov, so if he exceeds the production of a typical 3rd round player then the Senators will win the trade. He will need to be scoring fairly regularly to do that, so I think options 2 and 3 are close to being the same.
Personally, I would love to see him establish himself on the 2nd line with Alfredsson and whoever wins the centre spot. If that line can provide some scoring to supplement Michalek-Spezza-Butler then Ottawa should at least be competitive most nights this year.
Down the road it would be great to see him break out and score 30+, but if that is going to happen I wouldn’t expect it until his second season. In a best case scenario, in 2012-13 will see the Senators ice a “Kid Line” of Filatov-Zabinejad-Silfverberg to terrorize defenses around the league with their speed and skills.
Filatov-Zabinejad-Silfverberg
I would love to see this materialize
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Can you imagine?
We’d have the Geezer line (Michalek-Spezza-Alfie) and the Whippersnapper line (Filatov-Zibanejad-Silfverberg).
Talk about an exercise in extremes!
If you had Greening - Da Costa - Butler on a line it would be the College Line.
Then Winchester(?) – Z Smith – Neil is the bruising line.
In truth, Butler is probably going to take Alfie's spot in a year :(
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Alfie is second line now.
Butler will start with Spezz at even strength. Alfie will be used for PP and in high stress situations – keep him fresh for when his skills are needed.
While I agree with that
We have yet to see it implemented. Most coaches put their best talent on the same line, and I think Alfie is still more talented than the Bust. This is one of my key interests in camp: Does the team finally start rolling back his minutes to keep him fresh?
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by Mark Parisi on Sep 14, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Works hard to bcome a productive member of the Senators Organization
That’s what I would have voted for. That’s really all you hope for from a 3rd round pick.
We know Nikita has skills but we have no idea where he is developmentally. All we know is that both he and the CBJ’s were dissatisfied with his development there. Whether Nikita’s game has developed sufficiently to fill a role in Ottawa or needs some time with Coach Kleinendorst in Binghamton I’ll be satisfied as long as he works hard to fulfill his potential and address any weaknesses in his game.
I don’t think he should feel any pressure to succeed immediately and I believe it is unwise for us to place that expectation upon him. Remember as mentioned above he is three years younger than Bobby Butler so give him some time. As long as Nikita continues to work and compete hard he/we will reap the rewards eventually.
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