Silver Nuggets: Senators in fantasy hockey; Predictions continue

by Adnan on Aug 24, 2011 1:00 PM EDT in Silver Nuggets

Greetings to all the children of the Sens. May Karlsson bless you all. Without further delay, here are today's links:

The Hockey News grades the fantasy hockey value of various teams, including the Ottawa Senators. The offensively challenged Senators get a D+ but they do mention if everything clicks for Nikita Filatov, he could finish with as high as 65 points. They also predict David Rundblad to win the Calder Trophy and that Rundblad along with Erik Karlsson should dominate from the blueline for many years. However, they also call Mika Zibanejad a "defensive centre with underrated offensive abilities". (The Hockey News)
Senshot continue their team by team analysis, and here they compare Ottawa to Florida, Montreal and New Jersey. They predict the Sens to finish above Florida, below Montreal and are unsure about New Jersey. (Senshot)
Continuing with this theme, here they compare the Sens to the Islanders, Rangers and Flyers. The Sens are projected ahead of the Islanders but behind the Rangers and Flyers. (Senshot)
Yet more predictions, where this article predicts that Paul Maclean won't be fired, Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza will put up more points than last season, Erik Karlsson will finish with over 50 points but won't finish second in team scoring and that the Sens will miss the playoffs. (The Hockey Writers)
Turning to the AHL, the Calder Cup champions, the Binghamton Senators, have signed defencemen Bobby Raymond and Josh Godfrey to one-year two-way contracts. (Press & Sun-Bulletin)

Poll

How many points will Jason Spezza get?

Under 50

4 votes

50 - 59

7 votes

60-69

35 votes

70-79

112 votes

80-89

94 votes

90-99

12 votes

Over 100

18 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I predict Spezza will put up more points than last year, but at slightly worse production

We should see him go from 57points in 62 games to 64 points in 70 games if history is to be believed. That would be a drop from .919PPG to .914PPG.

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by Mark Parisi on Aug 24, 2011 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

I am all optimistic and such so I voted 80-89

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by Adnan on Aug 24, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

He would need to play all 82 games at over a point a game pace to accomplish that

The only time he was able to do so was when he was on the pizza line. I don’t think we have the wingers capable of putting him over one point per game, and I don’t think his points/game number will ever rise above what it was last year at this point in his career.

Just too many factors working against him.

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by Mark Parisi on Aug 25, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

It's what I voted, too

I could see it happening. You’re right that there are a lot of factors working against him, but… Bobby Butler!

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by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 25, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I actually feel Butler could get there someday

I just don’t think it will be this year, and I think he’ll hit 30 goals.

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by Mark Parisi on Aug 25, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

We shall see!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Aug 25, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope I'm wrong!

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by Mark Parisi on Aug 25, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

It all depends on Michalek and Butler.

If 9MM keeps his bionic knees well oiled and intact, he’ll be blazingly fast. Plus, he’s got a big body to put in front of the net for garbage goals. Butler has a helluva shot, and if he can get 20-30 goals, that’ll help Spezza’s numbers.

I’m thinking 70-79 points, but if his line clicks then 80+ isn’t far fetched.

by The Tif on Aug 24, 2011 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

Don't forget PP time

I have a feeling that the power play is going to click at a higher rate this season and that Spezza will be one of the beneficiaries. That may be wishful thinking, but my reasoning is that last year’s power play got stale and this year’s will have new ideas. Additionally, with Karlsson a year older and wiser, Gonchar feeling more comfortable in Ottawa and Alfie and Spezza healthy (not to mention Butler for a full year and Michalek back to his best and maybe Filatov). So you have upgraded and or healthier personel as well as new ideas from a guy whose former team was pretty good on the power play. That is all “circumstantial evidence”, but it points to an increase in power play productivity (at least it does to me). A more productive power play should mean more points for Spezza.

by DW19 on Aug 25, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

True. Our PP can't get much worse - weren't we 22nd or something last year?

by The Tif on Aug 25, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Believe it or not

our PP was percentage wise, tied for 15th spot. We didn’t get that many pp compared to other teams: sign of a bad year.

by whatsinaname on Aug 25, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree

Spezza being Spezza, he will always set up his linemates to score. It all boils down to what kind of finishers Butler, Filatov or whoever the wingers are. Things cannot get worse than last year: I put him down for the 70-79 range, if he plays 75+ games.

by whatsinaname on Aug 25, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

2nd line question mark?

Somehow, I’m confident in our 1st, 3rd and 4th lines this year as well as our goaltending. IMO, how it’s going to go will be largely determined by the #2 line and how well our new defence forms.

by Marvellous on Aug 24, 2011 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

I am hoping to see Michalek and Alfredsson anchoring the 2nd line with a young centre like Regin, DaCosta, Zabinajed or maybe even Foligno. It would be great to have someone else in the middle, but hopefully strong play from the wings can make up for that somewhat.

by DW19 on Aug 25, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Like everything else with this team so much is up in the air

It all starts with the ability of the players to buy into and be successful with Paul MacLean’s system. If the team proves adept at the puck position game that Mr. Moustache has stated he wishes to employ, team success should equal individual success.

The second part of the equation is who does Spezza play with and how much chemistry does he develop with those players? Michalek has been on the team long enough for us to know that Spezza-Michalek is not a match made in heaven. Was the Bobby Butler we saw last year a fluke, or was it a Regin like ‘flash in the pan’? We know there is chemistry with Alfie, but many would suggest that our fearless leader will be much more effective in a second line role. Have we just replaced one enigmatic russian in Kovalev with another in Filatov, or will Filatov take advantage and prove Columbus wrong?

One thing is for certain, Our PP should look pretty good with a 1st unit consisting of
WhoeverClicks-Spezza-Alfredsson
Karlsson-Gonchar/Runblad

With that kind of look on the PP, I would be suprised if Jason didn’t get back to the 35 PP point range give or take 5 points. That, combined with a lack of a bonafide #2 centre should give Jason increased ice time, so I would be suprised if he didn’t get back to around 40 points @ even strength. That should put him in nicely between 70 & 79 points, assuming he stays healthy & doesn’t miss more than half a dozen games.

All that being said, Regin could put together a year like we expected from him last year, Zibanejad could show that he is a capable #2 centre or the wings could be decimated by injuries. The team may not be capable of the moustache system or Spezza could miss another 20+ games to injury. If any of that happens, than a 55 – 65 point campaign is much more likely.

by havey03 on Aug 24, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I could have saved myself some time commenting on the power play if I had scrolled down and read your comment. Seems like we are pretty much in agreement on this topic.

The other thing to add is that their is maybe a 10-15% chance that things really click for Spezza this year and he surprises everyone with a 90+ point season. If “WhoeverClicks” turns out to be a really good fit with Spezza (say Filatov) and Butler turns out not to be a fluke then Spezza might have a really strong year. In that scenario, you have a pretty good second line with Alfredsson, Michalek and Mystery Centre X that could take some of the scoring pressure off the first line. The third and fourth lines might not score a ton, but they should skate and check well enough to eat up lots of even strength minutes, so that Spezza can save more energy for the power play.

If I were doing a probability distribution for Spezza this season it might look like this:

under 50: 5% (serious injury, knock on wood this doesn’t happen)
50-59: 15% (less serious injury, similar to last season)
60-69: 15% (mostly healthy, but no chemistry with linemates)
70-79: 30% (most likely scenario in my opinion)
80-89: 13% (everything goes well)
90-99: 10% (everything clicks perfectly)
100+: 2% (hasn’t happened yet in the NHL)

by DW19 on Aug 25, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions